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Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

mearsheimer.com

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Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#31

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ukrthrowaway wrote: post #29
boardwaalk wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said he wanting negotiations and then attacked days later. Suggesting we take that statement face value is patently absurd.

It was many weeks and the US basically said they would not even consider the main points at issue.

When the abusive ex-husband tells you that dating his ex-wife is crossing his "red line", do you carefully consider his position? Or do you refuse to consider it, because that's none of his business?

Putin's demand was none of his business, and was completely unacceptable. It wasn't going to be considered, not in days, not in weeks, and not in decades.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#32

Post by ukrthrowaway »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #20
ukrthrowaway wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, not if it significantly affects others, as it would in this case, by risking a nuclear war. Should countries be able to get nuclear weapons just because they want them?

Russia is the one threatening nuclear war here. That’s on Russia, no one else.

It's on everyone who can take actions to prevent it.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#33

Post by pasabagi »

mcguire wrote: post #23
Synaesthesia wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've collected the speeches on my website. He didn't say that. http://pauleccles.co.za/

He's quite critical of the Soviet Union. " Lenin criticised this plan and suggested making concessions to the nationalists, whom he called “independents” at that time. Lenin’s ideas of what amounted in essence to a confederative state arrangement and a slogan about the right of nations to self-determination, up to secession, were laid in the foundation of Soviet statehood. Initially they were confirmed in the Declara…

Is this surprising? He's a right wing guy - he doesn't like "the odious and utopian fantasies" of socialism, and his read of Stalin (and how Stalinism worked) is pretty standard.

It's actually a common understanding of what went so horribly wrong in the USSR: the party formed a sort of parallel administrative structure that basically undermined and supplanted all the actual laws and institutions of state.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#34

Post by pasabagi »

988747 wrote: post #22
dTal wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't take Putin's word at face value. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

Or maybe we should take Putin's words more seriously? He was planning to invade Ukraine for at least a decade now, and was quite openly talking about it - all those times when he claimed that "The fall of Soviet Union was a great tragedy" it was quite obvious that he'll try to rebuild it, in its former borders. Western leaders chose to ignore all warning signs because of they greed (looking at you, Germany, with your…

I think for many people in the former USSR, that the fall of the USSR was a tragedy is kind of obvious. Living standards dropped precipitously, whole industries closed overnight, and the state was basically stolen from under the citizen's feet. Even in east germany, probably best served by decomunization, you live amongst the carcasses of all the workplaces that closed down.

It doesn't mean that you can reverse that tragedy by lobbing missiles around. That's absurd.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#35

Post by netsharc »

partiallypro wrote: post #15

The US, etc could have banned Ukraine from NATO forever and it wouldn't have mattered at all. Putin's speech rarely mentioned NATO as his deciding factor. He said doesn't believe Ukraine should exist independently of Russia.

There's often a difference between what people say and what people think, as well as justifications for actions against the actual reasons they did the action. Because telling the public the real reason might be embarrassing.

He's saying Ukraine is ruled by Nazis and he's getting rid of them. That's made up. The real reason in his mind might be NATO, it could also be he doesn't want liberal democracies so close to Russia, what if his own citizenry gets the idea that if their neighbors can topple corrupt dictators, maybe they can do that as well..

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#37

Post by zozbot234 »

tschwimmer wrote: post #27
AlexandrB wrote: post #13

This kind of analysis ignores what Ukraine and Ukrainians actually want. Western Ukraine, at the very least, is extremely nationalist and anti-Russian. Do they not have the right of self-determination as a sovereign country?

There is a reason Mearsheimer is part of an IR school of thought called "Realists." This analysis doesn't focus much on self-determinism or international law because it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. I also think that it's regrettable, but people making foreign policy calls should be aware of this line of thinking. For what it's worth, what Mearsheimer is saying here about NATO expansion being…

> it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence.

But international law has a lot of influence. As a set of shared norms, it's something that most competently-run countries and polities explicitly foster in order to achieve some sort of long-term stability and predictability that ultimately benefits them all. A "realist" analysis that simply ignores these dynamics and pretends they do not exist is not very realistic after all.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#38

Post by wonnage »

mjh2539 wrote: post #21
AlexandrB wrote: post #13

This kind of analysis ignores what Ukraine and Ukrainians actually want. Western Ukraine, at the very least, is extremely nationalist and anti-Russian. Do they not have the right of self-determination as a sovereign country?

The author doesn't care what Ukrainians want, and neither does Russia or the United States for that matter. He's a political realist. I think the author would say that you have the right to self-determination if you actually possess the political capital to have the right to begin with. It is obvious that the Ukrainians do not (whereas the Poles, French, Germans, etc. do).

People are very much missing this point; there is no value judgement here over what "should" be happening.

There has always been clear red line; if NATO is attacked, we're starting WWIII. If a non-NATO friendly country is attacked, we'll complain loudly and declare sanctions.

Ukraine is not in NATO and we should've behaved accordingly (i.e, not sponsor a coup)

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#39

Post by qiskit »

rich_sasha wrote: post #18

Sounds like a useful idiot to me. Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time. The Kaliningrad region is Europe’s most militarised area, with SAM and tactical ballistic weaponry extending over most of Poland and the Baltic’s, quite possibly most of Europe in fact. Russian nuke-capable bombers graze NATO airspaces on an almost dai…

> Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time. The Kaliningrad region is Europe’s most militarised area, with SAM and tactical ballistic weaponry extending over most of Poland and the Baltic’s

Is it russia's fault that NATO expanded to russia's borders? The problem here isn't russia. It's NATO. The evil empire that's expanding to places it does not belong. The source of the world's problem isn't russia or china. It's NATO and the west.

Just look at the commonality amongst all the issues in the world. From ukraine to taiwan to myanmar to syria to iran to venezuela to everywhere. It's the US. We are the problem. A clear sign of an overstretched empire having to deal with little fires all over the world.

> But Ukraine thinks about joining NATO and Russia has no choice but carve out some of its territory? And it’s the west’s fault?

A dutch company selling equipment to china was such a problem for the US that we forbade the dutch ( supposedly a sovereign state ) from doing business with china. Imagine if the chinese bought the netherlands instead. Or even better, imagine if the chinese took over canada. Think the US would be concerned? That's what NATO taking over ukraine is for russia. Look at a map.

> When asked to provide an example of a bad deed, he says “when someone take cow from Kali”. Asked for a good deed, he volunteers: “when Kali take cow”.

In other words, "Free Tibet" but no "Free Alaska", no "Free Hawaii", no "Free Texas", etc. "Free Xinjiang" but not "Free Australia". It's almost like hypocrisy is essential to geopolitics? It's part of geopolitic's nature.

> Basically, you don’t need to understand more about morality to understand Putin’s idea of statehood and leadership.

No morality in geopolitics. Just interests. The ones claiming to be the most moral almost always turn out to be the most evil.

What is shocking is how passive the russians have been. Even more shocking is how passive china has been. How passive the world has been. Is everyone just biding their time? Is it money?

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#40

Post by [deleted] »

Yoofie wrote: post #26
rich_sasha wrote: post #18

Sounds like a useful idiot to me. Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time. The Kaliningrad region is Europe’s most militarised area, with SAM and tactical ballistic weaponry extending over most of Poland and the Baltic’s, quite possibly most of Europe in fact. Russian nuke-capable bombers graze NATO airspaces on an almost dai…

> Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time. You got this exactly backwards. NATO has been expanding towards Russia and is seen as aggressive by Russia. NATO/US "graze" Russian and Chinese airspace aswell - whats your point? This is just military tactics 101. >But Ukraine thinks about joining NATO and Russia has no choice but c…

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