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Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

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Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#31

Post by stouset »

bsedlm wrote: post #28
f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #27

Ctrl+f fusion. > "Fusion is therefore a complicated and not particularly cheap way to generate electricity. Meanwhile, we are not running terribly short on renewable ways to produce electricity: solar; wind; hydroelectric; geother- mal; tidal." Fusion is the key to long term success for humanity. It paves the way to essentially unlimited cheap burstable power. In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to cre…

disagree essentially because I believe we'd get into a situation where the problem becomes heat dissipation. the problem is the human psique, not technological capabilities.

If we find a cheap new way to generate orders of magnitude more energy, we'll use orders of magnitude more energy.

And you're right. We're only a bit over two hundred years away at 2.3% annualized growth in energy use from noticeably raising Earth's surface temperatures just from a thermodynamic perspective. And that's completely ignoring the effects of greenhouse gases.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#32

Post by stouset »

justbrowsingthx wrote: post #24
1053r wrote: post #10

The entire book falls apart because of two facts, both of which are in the book itself! "Hands down, solar is the only renewable resource capable of matching our current societal energy demand. Not only can it reach 18 TW, it can exceed the mark by orders of magnitude." (Section 13.9) "We would likely not be discussing a finite planet or limits to growth or climate change if only one million humans inhabited the plan…

I'm not sure I understand your point. Perhaps you disagree with the author on the desirability of a future in which virtually unlimited energy is available to humankind in its current state (see the upshot on nuclear fusion p. 269, for example). His cautious take on our collective ability to manage our energetic needs[0] does not seem unwarranted to me. Regardless, I think the book remains useful for its intended aud…

"Virtually unlimited energy" is where the argument completely falls apart. It's a myth we need to stop spreading. As I said elsewhere, we have only a bit over 200 years at our current 2.3% annual growth in energy usage before we start raising the temperature of the Earth purely from a thermodynamic perspective.

Completely blanketing the Earth in solar panels gets us a few hundred years more (thanks to the fact that that solar energy is already hitting the planet whether or not we use it for electricity), but that's assuming we've developed panels with magical levels of efficiency and we're okay with 0% of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface.

Four hundred years of sustained energy growth at current levels is the most that could happen on this planet under comically-implausible circumstances, and when we reduce the absurdity even just a bit (greenhouse gases still exist, we won't blanket the planet in perfectly-efficient solar cells), we optimistically might get two hundred years more before we hit an energy wall that cannot be overcome without a complete overthrow of thermodynamics as we understand it.

Is that still a lot of growth? Sure. But it's about the same window of time as the industrial revolution until now.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#33

Post by willis936 »

bsedlm wrote: post #28
f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #27

Ctrl+f fusion. > "Fusion is therefore a complicated and not particularly cheap way to generate electricity. Meanwhile, we are not running terribly short on renewable ways to produce electricity: solar; wind; hydroelectric; geother- mal; tidal." Fusion is the key to long term success for humanity. It paves the way to essentially unlimited cheap burstable power. In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to cre…

disagree essentially because I believe we'd get into a situation where the problem becomes heat dissipation. the problem is the human psique, not technological capabilities.

That is an overwhelmingly good problem to have. We would have truly mastered the planet for that to be a concern. As it stands, keeping society above water for the next hundred years seems like the grand challenge to accomplish. Do not assume victory is given. Nothing is a given. We are always on the edge.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#34

Post by saiya-jin »

stouset wrote: post #31
bsedlm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

disagree essentially because I believe we'd get into a situation where the problem becomes heat dissipation. the problem is the human psique, not technological capabilities.

If we find a cheap new way to generate orders of magnitude more energy, we'll use orders of magnitude more energy. And you're right. We're only a bit over two hundred years away at 2.3% annualized growth in energy use from noticeably raising Earth's surface temperatures just from a thermodynamic perspective . And that's completely ignoring the effects of greenhouse gases.

You and parent project this in some theoretical universe where these effects would be ignored. Why on earth do you think so? With semi-unlimited energy at our palms, we can do serious geoengineering. We can put these furnaces into high orbits, or moon and beam down just raw output energy with lasers. Or whatever, even the sky isn't a proverbial limit.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#35

Post by philipkglass »

f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #27

Ctrl+f fusion. > "Fusion is therefore a complicated and not particularly cheap way to generate electricity. Meanwhile, we are not running terribly short on renewable ways to produce electricity: solar; wind; hydroelectric; geother- mal; tidal." Fusion is the key to long term success for humanity. It paves the way to essentially unlimited cheap burstable power. In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to cre…

In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to create the heavier elements that we are running out of here on earth. Forged in a manmade nuclear furnace.

The only heavy element that we actually "use up" to any significant degree is uranium, which is consumed for energy, but if we had cheap fusion energy uranium consumption would plummet. Even if we could make artificial uranium it would be a net-energy-losing process to make artificial uranium with fusion power instead of using fusion power directly.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#36

Post by wilkommen »

bsedlm wrote: post #28
f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #27

Ctrl+f fusion. > "Fusion is therefore a complicated and not particularly cheap way to generate electricity. Meanwhile, we are not running terribly short on renewable ways to produce electricity: solar; wind; hydroelectric; geother- mal; tidal." Fusion is the key to long term success for humanity. It paves the way to essentially unlimited cheap burstable power. In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to cre…

disagree essentially because I believe we'd get into a situation where the problem becomes heat dissipation. the problem is the human psique, not technological capabilities.

I agree. I don't think humanity is happier given more resources, above a certain relatively small amount. But humanity's desires are limitless. If we are able to invent a free energy machine we'll just use it so much that it causes new problems.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#37

Post by ttiurani »

f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #27

Ctrl+f fusion. > "Fusion is therefore a complicated and not particularly cheap way to generate electricity. Meanwhile, we are not running terribly short on renewable ways to produce electricity: solar; wind; hydroelectric; geother- mal; tidal." Fusion is the key to long term success for humanity. It paves the way to essentially unlimited cheap burstable power. In the even longer term plasma fusion offers a way to cre…

> These pesky climate problems can be solved.

The thing is, it's not just climate that's the problem. The "pesky" problem is that we've crossed or are soon crossing most planetary boundaries[1] at the same time.

Fusion doesn't stop and reverse biodiversity loss, chemical pollutants, land-system change, biochemical flows, ocean plastic buildup and ocean acidification.

To stop the ecological collapse, the necessary condition is that the global North drastically reduces material flows and energy consumption. With less energy use, fusion also becomes less critical.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#38

Post by chordalkeyboard »

pdonis wrote: post #18

The basic M.O. here is not new: (1) Present the basic math of exponential growth to show that exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely; (2) claim that sustaining our present lifestyle would require exponential growth to continue indefinitely; (3) conclude that our present lifestyle cannot be sustained. The issue, of course, is in step 2.

what's the issue with step 2? Our present lifestyle does seem to require constant growth, and if this is not the case it would be nice for someone to explain how we can keep getting more out of the system without contributing more to the system.

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#39

Post by danbruc »

chordalkeyboard wrote: post #38
pdonis wrote: post #18

The basic M.O. here is not new: (1) Present the basic math of exponential growth to show that exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely; (2) claim that sustaining our present lifestyle would require exponential growth to continue indefinitely; (3) conclude that our present lifestyle cannot be sustained. The issue, of course, is in step 2.

what's the issue with step 2? Our present lifestyle does seem to require constant growth, and if this is not the case it would be nice for someone to explain how we can keep getting more out of the system without contributing more to the system.

Why does our current lifestyle require constant growth, could we not just stop at our current energy consumption level?

Re: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

#40

Post by chordalkeyboard »

danbruc wrote: post #39
chordalkeyboard wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's the issue with step 2? Our present lifestyle does seem to require constant growth, and if this is not the case it would be nice for someone to explain how we can keep getting more out of the system without contributing more to the system.

Why does our current lifestyle require constant growth, could we not just stop at our current energy consumption level?

lots of reasons but population growth and our dependence on technology are two of the major ones.
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