Live data from Hacker News

Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

isbitcoindownorjustme.com

31–40 of 268 posts

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#31

Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days https://coinmarketcap.com/

And up x,xxx% the past 5 years. People have short memories. Heck, in 2020 it was only around $9k.

I suppose short memory is good when remembering is painful.

I remember when ETH was about $100. BNB was $40 months before I had enough spare money to enter this market. I have one family member who once held several bitcoins but sold them at $70.

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#32

Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days https://coinmarketcap.com/

> Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days

If a stock market index (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc) was doing the same there would be many more headlines and people freaking out.

Some people claim that Bitcoin is "money", or at least a store of value, but I'm not sure I'd want to have any net worth stored in something that is as volatile at Bitcoin has been over the past year:

* https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#35

Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days https://coinmarketcap.com/

> Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days If a stock market index (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc) was doing the same there would be many more headlines and people freaking out. Some people claim that Bitcoin is "money", or at least a store of value, but I'm not sure I'd want to have any net worth stored in something that is as volatile at Bitcoin has been over the past year: * https://coinmarketcap.com/curr…

The S&P 500 market cap is over $40 trillion. The bitcoin market cap is under $2 trillion. I just looked up this data super quick with Google so corrections are welcome. And yep, I'm editing my comment because apparently that data is for all of crypto - bitcoin is $815 billion according to ycharts.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_market_cap

That's still an absurd amount of money, but there is more than an order of magnitude difference just in money, not to mention how almost no parts of the modern economy interact with cryptocurrencies in any way whatsoever.

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adjusting for inflation that is actually a loss year to date. S&P 500 was up 26 percent last year.

You can't take one snapshot in time and compare it when the two assets exhibit wildly different volatility characteristics. You are capturing Bitcoin's price when it is down. If we were to do the same thing at the end of the year last year we could say it went up 70% in 2021 (and that was after a big drop from it's ATH) whereas the S&P only went up 26%. See how that isn't the whole story?

> You can't take one snapshot in time and compare it when the two assets exhibit wildly different volatility characteristics.

I mean, you certainly can if you're taking the "buy and hold" approach, or hodl amongst the cool kids. It simply points out that buy and hold crypto is not guaranteed to be better than something like SPY, and the excess volatility is maybe not a good thing?

The highest possible returns != what investors actually achieve.

Pointing out that at the peak it was up higher than SPY, even though it is no longer up higher, and considering that a good thing seems very odd. It would also only relevant if you're able to know when things are at a top and bottom. Did you sell any bitcoin you owned when up 70% and, if so, have we reached a bottom when it is optimal to buy back in?

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#37

Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days https://coinmarketcap.com/

> Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days If a stock market index (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc) was doing the same there would be many more headlines and people freaking out. Some people claim that Bitcoin is "money", or at least a store of value, but I'm not sure I'd want to have any net worth stored in something that is as volatile at Bitcoin has been over the past year: * https://coinmarketcap.com/curr…

some people have different risk appetite

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days If a stock market index (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc) was doing the same there would be many more headlines and people freaking out. Some people claim that Bitcoin is "money", or at least a store of value, but I'm not sure I'd want to have any net worth stored in something that is as volatile at Bitcoin has been over the past year: * https://coinmarketcap.com/curr…

The S&P 500 market cap is over $40 trillion. The bitcoin market cap is under $2 trillion. I just looked up this data super quick with Google so corrections are welcome. And yep, I'm editing my comment because apparently that data is for all of crypto - bitcoin is $815 billion according to ycharts. https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_market_cap That's still an absurd amount of money, but there is more than an order…

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. That is, why do market caps matter here?

Re: Is Bitcoin Down or Just Me?

#40

Would be interesting to include stats on of chain reorgs (frequency, length, etc.) as they're technically part of their downtime definition ("current longest chain was not an active chain"). It would also give an idea of the level of risk when waiting for X confirmations.

How can one get such stats? Any source for reference?

You could probably parse the Bitcoin Core logs (assuming reorgs are logged) or run a modified Bitcoin node software which explicitly tracks such reorgs.
Post reply on HN