The HN headline says "large fire", but the article does not.
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ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
31–40 of 319 posts
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has been pouring high order of millions into domestic lithography. Eventually the market will shift. We're still a bit far away. Edit: funny that people here think that this is statement is somehow something that could be considered a contentious topic. semiengineering has a startup section with investments for people that are more interested in facts than emotions: https://semiengineering.com/startup-corner/
Well EUV alone cost many billions of dollars to develop. It's also not clear that China is particularly good at leading high tech innovation. If you just look at the dollars and cents, they should be inventing new technology at a similar rate as the US. Doesn't seem like they're pulling their weight.
They don’t have to lead though, just fast follow.
Many companies were hit by digital trade secret theft that was sent to China, so they are more than capable of bypassing the billions of R&D by getting access to the designs and going from there with government backing.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Is impacting the semi supply chain the hot, new weapon of the US-China tech cold war? If it is, at best only temporarily. The US is perfectly capable of setting up its own complete supply chain if there were the political motivation and do so in a relatively short time frame. China is perfectly aware of this so it will never become a serious issue, they would just be shooting themselves in the foot and cutting thems…
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe. EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complexity and sophistication that rivals the LHC, and mirrors with a roughness two orders of magnitude finer than what the JWST space telescope has to work with (namely .2nm compared to 20nm). Please do not underestimate the difficulty of manufacturing EUV systems, A…
If the DoD got scared and threw a few billion at a competition to build this tech locally, I’m betting it could be done relatively quickly, but then what is and is not “quick”
Just call the three or four companies you think would be the closest and tell them they’ll be competing to build the capacity paid for by the defense department.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has been pouring high order of millions into domestic lithography. Eventually the market will shift. We're still a bit far away. Edit: funny that people here think that this is statement is somehow something that could be considered a contentious topic. semiengineering has a startup section with investments for people that are more interested in facts than emotions: https://semiengineering.com/startup-corner/
Well EUV alone cost many billions of dollars to develop. It's also not clear that China is particularly good at leading high tech innovation. If you just look at the dollars and cents, they should be inventing new technology at a similar rate as the US. Doesn't seem like they're pulling their weight.
China is very good at copying others’ homework though, thus the plethora of BEVs coming to the world market soon.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chinese semi industry highly focussed on silicon carbide for automotive power electronics, with EUV being a skunkworks project taking place in Europe.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That's not to say that is impossible, but without good examples we can all say a bunch of stuff and it won't mean anything.
Ok, in WWII a big part of Allied victory was the US mobilizing a vertically integrated industrial base to build war materiel. You can look at the history of the Defense Production Act (1950) to see it in action several times building up local industries with lots of cheap money.
Right, if the US wanted it done it could be done.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has been pouring high order of millions into domestic lithography. Eventually the market will shift. We're still a bit far away. Edit: funny that people here think that this is statement is somehow something that could be considered a contentious topic. semiengineering has a startup section with investments for people that are more interested in facts than emotions: https://semiengineering.com/startup-corner/
Well EUV alone cost many billions of dollars to develop. It's also not clear that China is particularly good at leading high tech innovation. If you just look at the dollars and cents, they should be inventing new technology at a similar rate as the US. Doesn't seem like they're pulling their weight.
It takes time to catch up. There's no reason they won't be able to though given enough time and money though.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe. EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complexity and sophistication that rivals the LHC, and mirrors with a roughness two orders of magnitude finer than what the JWST space telescope has to work with (namely .2nm compared to 20nm). Please do not underestimate the difficulty of manufacturing EUV systems, A…
If the DoD got scared and threw a few billion at a competition to build this tech locally, I’m betting it could be done relatively quickly, but then what is and is not “quick” Just call the three or four companies you think would be the closest and tell them they’ll be competing to build the capacity paid for by the defense department.
If you don't have the right people and the right environment, throwing more money at a problem can be enormously inefficient, it doesn't solve every problem.
There are many example of big government funded projects that crumble under their own weight, despite being inundated with cash. Look at NASA's SLS, the DoD's trillion dollar plane projects, big government software projects in general.
For truly large, complex systems, it's not enough to throw more money at the problem. You need an organization that can manage the complexity in the first place, otherwise you can spend as many years and trillions as you want with little to show for it.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#38Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe. EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complexity and sophistication that rivals the LHC, and mirrors with a roughness two orders of magnitude finer than what the JWST space telescope has to work with (namely .2nm compared to 20nm). Please do not underestimate the difficulty of manufacturing EUV systems, A…
If the DoD got scared and threw a few billion at a competition to build this tech locally, I’m betting it could be done relatively quickly, but then what is and is not “quick” Just call the three or four companies you think would be the closest and tell them they’ll be competing to build the capacity paid for by the defense department.
to be honest, high level semiconductor lithography would be similar to manhattan project complexity. It could be done, but there's a reason nobody but ASML makes these.
Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe. EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complexity and sophistication that rivals the LHC, and mirrors with a roughness two orders of magnitude finer than what the JWST space telescope has to work with (namely .2nm compared to 20nm). Please do not underestimate the difficulty of manufacturing EUV systems, A…
If the DoD got scared and threw a few billion at a competition to build this tech locally, I’m betting it could be done relatively quickly, but then what is and is not “quick” Just call the three or four companies you think would be the closest and tell them they’ll be competing to build the capacity paid for by the defense department.
What if everyone who knows how already works for ASML? Then starting up a competing corporation and sniping talent would actually slow down recovery. I'm sure the cost-benefit-analysis has already been done.