The Black Sky Event • Hacker News Board

Re: The Black Sky Event

#31

Post by boboche » Thu, Dec 30, 2021, 3:16 PM UTC

panarky wrote: post #19

quirkot wrote: post #3

In 2003 there was a major blackout that started in Ohio and took out the power grid for most of Ohio east to New York and up into Ontario. Around 55 million people lost power. This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage) because there is no real EMP, just a full on nuclear bomb. Within 2 days the entire grid was back up like nothing happened. No civilization collapsed. This is fear mon…

> No civilization collapsed The fear mongers would have you believe that we're just one glitch away from the destruction of civilization, widespread violence and cannibalism in your cul-de-sac. But we have major catastrophes fairly often, and time after time we see people helping people, not purging them.

I think while ressources are available, localized event (even major) and its not world-ending, this is true and a beacon of hope in humanity.

However when ressources are no longer produced, people get hungry and desperate with no lights at the end of the tunnel, i.e. real game-changing global catastrophe, I hope I am wrong (and hope even more to never test that theory), but I doubt this would bring the best of humanity overall.

Fear mongers have one good thing: if you can reply with facts and destroy their theories, nutcase aliens mind controlling aside, it means that it has been studied or acknowledged. Simple dismissal might not be the best way to fix holes or anxious bodies.

Re: The Black Sky Event

#32

Post by EnlightenedBro » Thu, Dec 30, 2021, 3:54 PM UTC

jzellis wrote: post #30

This looks like it's frankly bullshit, but it does raise some interesting questions; not about EMPs, but people. There's a question I occasionally ask people: what would you do if you woke up and the power was off and it wasn't coming back on any time soon? That's not an unreasonable scenario - it can happen in the US, as we've seen. I'm not talking permanently, but say it's indefinite: you don't know when the power…

Laughed at the last paragraph, it's so true. Nobody will be able to even get on the roads, because without traffic lights and towing services they'll get clogged up very quickly (in just a few days), people will be abandoning their cars right on the road.

Can you post a link to your book (or book drafts), if you have it yet? I'd be interested to check it out.

Re: The Black Sky Event

#33

Post by supermatt » Thu, Dec 30, 2021, 4:28 PM UTC

gremlinsinc wrote: post #22

pech0rin wrote: post #11

Why is every one of these events "long overdue"? We are long overdue for huge earthquake in California, big volcano, huge asteroid, etc. Where is this notebook that lists these catastrophic events that are supposed to occur on some sort of regular timetable?

Asteroids, and super volcanoes are on too big a timescale to really predict w/ a lot of accuracy when it's "due" imho.... Carrington-level events though are roughly every 100-150 years, of that we're pretty certain and it's been like 160 years since the last one. A Cascadia Tsunami apparently hits every 240 years (on average according to VERY good records from Japan), the last one would've decimated basically half th…

Gamblers fallacy. A 1:150 chance of a Carrington class event happening in any given year does not mean that one will happen every 150 years.

Earthquakes (e.g. cascadia) are different. Tectonic strain is quantifiable.

Re: The Black Sky Event

#34

Post by bburrito » Thu, Dec 30, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

gremlinsinc wrote: post #28

bburrito wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is going to be a geomagnetic flip of the poles within the next 15 years.

I wonder if the waning geomagnetic poles... change how well the magnetosphere protects us from solar flares, and maybe it opens the way for stronger storms to get through...

That is exactly what happens. In fact, it happens in cycles. There is the sunspot activity cycle which is like every 12 years. Then there is a cycle at around 100 years that has been identified. But then ere are also cycles at even larger time scales around 1500, 6000, and 12000 years. With the 12000 year cycles being the most intense. And we know this because the polar direction and intensity of the magnetic field are recorded at the time a lava deposit solidifies. Which as we know is an ongoing never ending process; there is ALWAYS lava flowing somewhere on earth.

Re: The Black Sky Event

#35

Post by josephcsible » Thu, Dec 30, 2021, 8:03 PM UTC

quirkot wrote: post #3

In 2003 there was a major blackout that started in Ohio and took out the power grid for most of Ohio east to New York and up into Ontario. Around 55 million people lost power. This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage) because there is no real EMP, just a full on nuclear bomb. Within 2 days the entire grid was back up like nothing happened. No civilization collapsed. This is fear mon…

Civilization didn't collapse because we got the grid back on relatively quickly. If 55 million people didn't have power for weeks on end, civilization just might collapse.