Omicron Update, Dec 2 • Hacker News Board

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#31

Post by Cthulhu_ » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:31 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless.

Only because they're partial and temporary. NZ and Australia went into a full borders closed lockdown and were back in stadiums with tens of thousands while the epidemic was in full swing in the rest of the world.

I mean, I get that it's a morally difficult one because freedoms and rights and shit, but if the world went into lockdown for a month when this thing first came out, we wouldn't be in this situation.

The 'lockdowns' we get now are compromises; in my own country, their aim is to keep the economy going and kids going to school, even if workplaces and schools are probably the biggest spreaders. I say probably, because they announce new measures without providing evidence that the actions they take are the most effective at stopping the spread. Things like closing shops at 5; where are the facts that open shops after 5 are the biggest problem?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#32

Post by beagle3 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:31 PM UTC

shmatt wrote: post #19

sjwalter wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And omicron arose in vaccinated people and traveled the world in the respiratory tracts of the fully vaxxed.

SA is only 25% vaxxed. Perfect ground for new mutations

The vaccine is leaky. It doesn’t stop infection or transmission.

It’s not clear yet if it is putting any evolutionary pressure towards vaccine evasion (some people expect it to).

But SA is no more a breeding ground than anywhere else.

The well-documented breeding grounds are the immune suppressed, and it is incredibly unlikely that omicron developed in one of them.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#33

Post by loeg » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:31 PM UTC

junon wrote: post #29

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

That, and vaccination does reduce transmission in addition to disease severity.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#34

Post by junon » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #26

simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

Seems we've already forgotten the whole point of lockdowns the first time: to prevent overloading the hospital systems.

In places where hospitals were under capacity, deaths were significantly lower. Germany is a good example of this.

Overwhelmed healthcare systems, by comparison, saw lots more deaths.

Once it escaped Wuhan the goal was no longer to contain, but to control and soften the impact.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#35

Post by Cthulhu_ » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #14

The graph showing Omicron outcompeting Delta is, I think, actually good news. The worse condition would be if they don't even compete, i.e. Omicron was so different that having either Delta or Omicron wouldn't make you immune from the other. The pretty abrupt decline in Delta as Omicron ramps up, suggests pretty strongly that they do compete. I think this one might be The One. Everyone will be immune soon, perhaps, o…

I don't see how a mutation, no matter what, being more infectious is good news. The fact it (and Delta for that matter) was allowed to mutate in the first place is already pretty telling that the approach used to stem the tide was not effective.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#36

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #26

simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

This is nonsense.

Vaccination stopped smallpox and polio. Failure at Zero Covid is the result of poor, anti-realistic policies and attitudes - like yours, for example.

It's not because it's impossible, either economically or scientifically.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#37

Post by tgv » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:33 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #14

The graph showing Omicron outcompeting Delta is, I think, actually good news. The worse condition would be if they don't even compete, i.e. Omicron was so different that having either Delta or Omicron wouldn't make you immune from the other. The pretty abrupt decline in Delta as Omicron ramps up, suggests pretty strongly that they do compete. I think this one might be The One. Everyone will be immune soon, perhaps, o…

Yeah, but only if it's milder than Delta, of course. This was my initial hope: if the virus mutates so quickly, it could mutate itself out of existence after a while by becoming very contagious but as strong as a common cold.

Of course, once this happens, people will forget it ever happened and ignore the next warning signals.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#38

Post by FourHand451 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:33 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #26

simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

> But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point.

Plenty of people live their whole lives without catching smallpox or polio. We have/can develop effective vaccines for COVID. Why should it be different?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#39

Post by junon » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:34 PM UTC

jrochkind1 wrote: post #9

y4mi wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't have any domain knowledge so i cannot build an opinion on the matter, but the fact that they discovered it doesn't give them more authority on the topic then everyone else. most researchers i've heard on the topic only said "we will have to pay close attention to it", which sounds pretty reasonable from my uneducated perspective.

The South African scientists I have read saying "over-reacting" also agree with what you summarize as most researchers saying: "we will have to pay attention to it". They say we are over-reacting because many places are doing more than paying attention to it, making policy decisions and instituting additional restrictions based on unproven fears about it, not just paying attention to it. The South African scientists…

> but they have as much or more than many

That's not how epidemiology or even science works. There are so many variables at play that a response in one region might not make sense in another region, and the same goes for the virus's behavior.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#40

Post by beagle3 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:34 PM UTC

shmatt wrote: post #15

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Not an official study but just an observation - its very possible to avoid lockdowns so far, by implementing true vaccine passports. Israel did that without any shutdowns during the 4th wave. Basically banning non-vaccinated people from most public areas and by true, that means something you can actually validate isn't fake, while checking for ID at the same time. And also not allowing in un-vaccinated children becau…

It is possible to avoid lockdown by not imposing lockdowns. It is that simple.

It is not the vaccine passports that stopped lockdown - in fact, there is no evidence they had any effect on transmission.