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This real estate bubble won't pop

jaredabrock.substack.com

31–40 of 110 posts

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#31
post #19

A couple pieces of legislation can shift the equation drastically. Incentives carved out for the home you live in (versus investment properties) are a common way to squeeze more out of a state run property subsidy program without making too many constituents mad. For now, probably not, as the the the majority of the US Speaker of the House's wealth comes from real estate holdings across California.

And 23 million Americans are landlords, according to this article.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#32

One aspect of articles like this that I've noticed is the absolute certainty the author seems to have that these terrible outcomes are inevitable, with no expression of a confidence interval or possible less world-ending alternatives. I just... can't take articles like this seriously. It's the political equivalent of gore porn, and it feels like a waste of time to think about. When Nassim Taleb wrote about "Black Swa…

100%. This guy has a couple good observations sprinkled in between paragraph after paragraph of hyperbolic ranting.

Also lol at citing 40% annual real estate inflation across Canada unqualified which just links to some other opinion piece which states the exact same case as this guy's.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#33

One aspect of articles like this that I've noticed is the absolute certainty the author seems to have that these terrible outcomes are inevitable, with no expression of a confidence interval or possible less world-ending alternatives. I just... can't take articles like this seriously. It's the political equivalent of gore porn, and it feels like a waste of time to think about. When Nassim Taleb wrote about "Black Swa…

Steven Pinker and Jordan Peterson built a good career being the anti-taleb, arguing that social progress is good and or inevitable. There is a large market for both extremes of optimism and pessimism.

But the doom and gloomism gets tiring because it's just so wrong all the time, and rather than admit being wrong they just keep digging in.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#34
post #22

One aspect of articles like this that I've noticed is the absolute certainty the author seems to have that these terrible outcomes are inevitable, with no expression of a confidence interval or possible less world-ending alternatives. I just... can't take articles like this seriously. It's the political equivalent of gore porn, and it feels like a waste of time to think about. When Nassim Taleb wrote about "Black Swa…

I would suggest reading until the end. The author makes a number of recommendations on how this outcome can possibly be avoided (see header starting with "The solution is simple" and all the way through until the end of the piece).

It's hard to make it to the end when the writing is so obnoxious.

I certainly gave up before then.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#35
At least the US had a small housing crash in 09/10, most of the rest of the world hasn't seen that so its been 3 decades of non-stop boom. It has to add badly. I thought the baby boomers retiring would cause a lot of downsizing but that just hasn't happened.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#36
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well apartment buildings is one. Is rented out real estate really ‘hoarded’?

It seems like if it's zoned as a single-family home or residential or whatever and you're not a single family it's hording. I'm willing to be talked out of that. Seems wrong to have to compete with a corporation to buy a house.

The incentives for homeowners to prevent new construction would cause the same issue regardless of corporations getting in on it. The lack of new construction (in areas where people want to live) is the driving cause.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#38

One aspect of articles like this that I've noticed is the absolute certainty the author seems to have that these terrible outcomes are inevitable, with no expression of a confidence interval or possible less world-ending alternatives. I just... can't take articles like this seriously. It's the political equivalent of gore porn, and it feels like a waste of time to think about. When Nassim Taleb wrote about "Black Swa…

A notable trend of the last ten years or so is the way generic financial advice prognosticators have morphed into uniform catastrophic doom sayers (often with a hard-right bent). There are some reasons to be worried but it seems like in area, "doom sells" is a big motivation. But just much, with so much gloom and doom in this area, you don't have to provide any evidence, it's what this audience expects.

Also, article is poorly edited and filled with typos.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> thanks to historically low 30-year mortgage rate and low inflation, real estate is probably a better investment now than ever before Would an investor taking advantage of those low 30 year mortgages prefer low inflation or high? It seems to me they prefer high. They pay the mortgage back in future dollars which are worth less.

Yes. With enough inflation your house would become worth 10x and your mortgage now represents at most 10% of the new value. Fixed rate leverage is a bet that inflation is understated.

My parents paid off their first apartment in 5 years instead of 20 because of inflation in Yugoslavia. You can no longer get fixed rate mortgages in that part of the world … wonder why

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#40
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doing it in reverse (give a credit / deduction against real estate taxes for an individual who owns and lives in their own home) works fine.

Wouldn't the corporation just factor in the credit loss as a cost of doing business and adjust the rent accordingly? Seems better to stop them from owning more than a few properties to begin with, but I suppose both would be cool with me.

Rent price is determined by supply and demand. You can only increase rent if the market can support it. And to do that, you can do it regardless if your expenses went up or not. Goes the other way as well
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