31–40 of 42 posts
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> In the coming months and years, countries will have to return to a gold standard... Care to put a number of years on that? I asked you for a concrete prediction, so I'll give you mine. On January 1, 2040, the number of countries that have adopted the gold standard since 2021 will be either 0 or 1.
I agree, I’m willing to bet the OP all of my current savings, as well as all of my future savings over the next 20 years that it will be 0 or 1 countries on the gold standard in 2040. There is no way any government is going to let the value of their currency be tied to how much metal is extracted from the ground, let’s be real.
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The same rules would apply to any competing currency, such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is not a competing fiat currency, but a competing gold standard.
Michael Burry tweeted this earlier this year, "Prepare for inflation. Re-opening & stimulus on the way. Pre-COVID it took $3 debt to create $1 GDP, and it is worse now. In an inflationary crisis, governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena. $BTC #gold."
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> This has all happened before” is true. No, it isn't. Individual countries or small groups temporarily suspending the gold standard for a particular emergency and returning to it thereafter has happened (particularly in the final century of the general dominance of the standard). Very much not the same thing.
Are we just supposed to leave out that many empires simply collapsed, like the Roman Empire? So that it didn't go back to a gold standard because it no longer existed? I mean, maybe you have a point. Few that become heavy meth users ever go back to being healthy. "Since those dim beginnings in the forests of the Stone Age, governments have been perpetually rediscovering first the splendors and later the woes of infla…
Its, again, not the same thing you predict, so...does it matter? (Rome didn't have a simple gold standard and despite coin debasement never abandoned metallic commodity base of its currency in principle.)
> Few that become heavy meth users ever go back to being healthy.
And few that have fully adopted useful new technology (social or otherwise) simply abandon it for the less useful thing they had before. Argument by analogy often involves begging the question.
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Bitcoin is not a competing fiat currency, but a competing gold standard.
That's exactly what I'm saying. It would be seen as a competing currency, like gold, and prohibited. Michael Burry tweeted this earlier this year, "Prepare for inflation. Re-opening & stimulus on the way. Pre-COVID it took $3 debt to create $1 GDP, and it is worse now. In an inflationary crisis, governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena. $BTC #gold."
I used to be Keynesian and thought that inflation was a free tax that was also good for investment and growth. Now I understand that it leads inexorably to ruin. It creates a situation where you have to invest in markets, which removes the link to value, e.g. "the market always goes up." Growth investing is an oxymoron and just a variation of a Ponzi Scheme. We're at a watershed moment in modern history. In the comin…
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Are we just supposed to leave out that many empires simply collapsed, like the Roman Empire? So that it didn't go back to a gold standard because it no longer existed? I mean, maybe you have a point. Few that become heavy meth users ever go back to being healthy. "Since those dim beginnings in the forests of the Stone Age, governments have been perpetually rediscovering first the splendors and later the woes of infla…
> Are we just supposed to leave out that many empires simply collapsed, like the Roman Empire? Its, again, not the same thing you predict, so...does it matter? (Rome didn't have a simple gold standard and despite coin debasement never abandoned metallic commodity base of its currency in principle.) > Few that become heavy meth users ever go back to being healthy. And few that have fully adopted useful new technology…
You are well aware that the Denarius went from pure silver to .02%. You know it’s a classic example of inflation bringing an empire to its knees. Why split hairs to point out that there was still a sliver of silver?
My point is that history is filled with stories of inflation and its disastrous consequences. This time will not be different. You can win the words but I’m not sure you’re going to win that point.
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> Are we just supposed to leave out that many empires simply collapsed, like the Roman Empire? Its, again, not the same thing you predict, so...does it matter? (Rome didn't have a simple gold standard and despite coin debasement never abandoned metallic commodity base of its currency in principle.) > Few that become heavy meth users ever go back to being healthy. And few that have fully adopted useful new technology…
You keep arguing my words and not my point and I’m not sure what you think that type of sophistry is going to win you. You are well aware that the Denarius went from pure silver to .02%. You know it’s a classic example of inflation bringing an empire to its knees. Why split hairs to point out that there was still a sliver of silver? My point is that history is filled with stories of inflation and its disastrous conse…
I mean, its not, though its frequently cited as such by those obsessed with pure commodity money; at that level of reductionism it would be more accurate to say you are reversing cause and effect, as the Empire tried to cope with decline by debasing currency.
> My point is that history is filled with stories of inflation and its disastrous consequences.
History is filled with stories of inflation with and without disasters, and full of disasters during which inflation was turned to as an (sometimes successful, sometimes not) route of escape. Reading it as full of stories of inflation’s “disastrous consequences” takes both reversing cause and effect and highly selective reading.
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So? If someone can't pay me, it doesn't matter how much I want my value back, I'm not going to get it. That's what happens with bad investments - you lose your money. And if a country can't pay me in fiat currency, how in the world are they going to be able to pay me in gold?
The assets don't disappear. Gold doesn't disappear. People will still want to trade. They'll have assets and want different assets. Barter stinks. Countries will have surplus grain but want, say, tech. They can use a stable currency, say the Swiss Franc. Or they can use a scarce resource with a historical use as a currency, like gold. And defaulting doesn't mean you get off, scott free. When you default and go bankru…
> One is that Federal Reserve stopped reporting money supply after hitting $28 trillion, signaling that the US Dollar is defaulting.
It may be signalling that the dollar is inflating. That it's depreciating. But defaulting? How does a currency default? What would that even mean?
Nope. Done.
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>countries will have to return to a gold standard and when they do Every single one of the 200+ countries left the gold standard since the evidence on how bad economies fared tied to the rate you can dig up gold became irrefutable. Hopefully no major countries get dumb enough to revisit that fiasco. For example, read the academic work showing that trying to stay on the gold gold standard during the great depression l…
Tying our economy to digging up fossil carbon is not working out much better.