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If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#31

Post by pphysch »

jollybean wrote: post #27
rasz wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Line in Ukraine with extensive defense warranties? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

Crimea has no value to anyone, it's a sparsely populated barely industrialized island and 1/2 the population is Russian anyhow. I don't think there will be war over Taiwan, because if it was an effective Chinese invasion - there is nothing anyone could do about it. If China takes the Island, then they will keep it, not even the US could displace them without incredible force of power. If the US was involved in the fi…

Crimea has significant (defensive) strategic value to Russia, not unlike Taiwan for China or Cuba for USA. They really don't want a hostile power putting missile silos or aircraft carriers there.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#32

Post by pphysch »

You realize that USA is already economically dependent on China, right? No one can easily replace half a trillion per year in exported goods.

Taiwan being an autonomous province of PRC would not significantly change the current economic relationship between USA and China. In fact, it would probably improve it by resolving unnecessary tension.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#33

Post by redis_mlc »

pphysch wrote: post #32

You realize that USA is already economically dependent on China, right? No one can easily replace half a trillion per year in exported goods. Taiwan being an autonomous province of PRC would not significantly change the current economic relationship between USA and China. In fact, it would probably improve it by resolving unnecessary tension.

> You realize that USA is already economically dependent on China, right?

This is a naive analysis.

The facts are that:

- China imports about half of its food and energy, the US doesn't

- China has blocked capital exports since 2016, so there's no point in selling into the China market for foreign companies.

- The CCP is afraid of even 1% unemployment, let alone 10%, due to stability concerns. The corona plague plus unemployment equals their loss of "the mandate of heaven."

The exception is if the CCP decides to sacrifice half their population, which Mao once said (and Xi is a clone of Mao.)

The US can and should decouple from China, like Japan is. When Trump gets re-elected for his third term, expect it.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#34

Post by mrtweetyhack »

yongjik wrote: post #16
rasz wrote: post #13

No matter what happens to the fabs, China wins either way because they manufacture everything. As the recent crisis showed when push comes to shove China takes care of their internal needs first.

> As the recent crisis showed when push comes to shove China takes care of their internal needs first. Not sure what you mean by "internal needs", but China is currently suffering mass blackout because China banned Australian coal. Seems to me that China puts its domestic politics in front of people's need. * Well, at least not burning coal is a massive win for the Earth, so there's that. :/

China is OK with losing a few billion citizens

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#35

Post by unmole »

synergy20 wrote: post #6

Let me rephrase this: If China takes over Taiwan, how soon can USA build a united force with Japan, Australia, South Korea, probably British, India etc to take it back, like what occurred in Kuwart? This might set all of us back 2 decades but other options will be worse?

A war involving 4 nuclear powers. What could go wrong?

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#36

Post by desertraven »

monocasa wrote: post #4

> Or will Taiwan seek to destroy those factories before China can own them? Which would send the world into a crazy period, but will ensure China largely loses a significant advantage, and any victory is tainted. Word on the street is that TSMC buildings in Taiwan are already set up to be scuttled. Explosives located in locked rooms within the facilities.

Any sources on this?

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#37

Post by 0xdeadb00f »

monocasa wrote: post #4

> Or will Taiwan seek to destroy those factories before China can own them? Which would send the world into a crazy period, but will ensure China largely loses a significant advantage, and any victory is tainted. Word on the street is that TSMC buildings in Taiwan are already set up to be scuttled. Explosives located in locked rooms within the facilities.

Seriously? I can't tell I'd that's badass or scary.... Probably both.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#38

Post by iAm25626 »

No surprise most held a western view. Would be interesting to see POV(point of view) from people live in Taiwan. I have some contacts in Taiwan and most are not worry. This dance between Taiwan/China have been going on longer than most people is alive on HN. Goes without saying that bad news sell.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#39

Post by rasz »

lmilcin wrote: post #24
rasz wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>extremely tight for several years then life goes on Strange way of saying "$2 Trillion Apple goes bankrupt because no chips means no product to sell".

Pretty sure Apple would still be there. Remember, it is not just Apple that would be hit. All their competition would also. And out of all companies that produce phones Apple has probably most cash on hand. They have something like 200B USD in cash. Also Apple is in best position to be first in line to by chips at a premium outside Taiwan as their products are already expensive and high margin. And even if that doesn…

Apple is a good singular example with huge market cap. You are right, its not just Apple - all huge non Chinese/Korean car makers would be sol for couple of years, cant even retool to less electronics due to EPA/Euro standards.

Samsung owns cutting edge fabs and is pretty self reliant. China has SMIC.

Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?

#40

Post by slimebot »

iAm25626 wrote: post #38

No surprise most held a western view. Would be interesting to see POV(point of view) from people live in Taiwan. I have some contacts in Taiwan and most are not worry. This dance between Taiwan/China have been going on longer than most people is alive on HN. Goes without saying that bad news sell.

You're making massive assumptions about my background.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu literally said yesterday his country is preparing for war. I think he'd know.

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