Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#31

Post by yarcob » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

CyberRage wrote: post #12

smoldesu wrote: post #4

The other day I heard someone say that Rivian intends to deliver 40,000 vehicles next year, total. Musk runs his mouth on a lot of stuff, but it's pretty hard to knock his manufacturing when he's got a 20x lead on the competition. Hell, I was blown away by how quickly Starlink went from concept to reality, but figures like these really help put the scale into perspective. It's like capitalism down to a science, for b…

It's far far worse. Tesla is probably the only company in the world that produces\designs its own batteries, motors and electronics. Most "competitors" are just buying batteries\electronics from a vendor and shoving it in. Tesla partnered with Panasonic and created their own custom modules(2170), now they plan to do everything with the newly announced 4680(from raw materials to products). They are truly unmatched.

Tesla has a lead now, but I wonder how long it'll hold up.

At some point electric drivetrains and batteries will be available in large quantities from suppliers just like gasoline motors and gearboxes are available now.

As soon as that is the case, there will be many dozens of different car models that compete with Tesla.

Teslas vertical integration is an advantage now, because they don't have to wait for suppliers to develop what they need. But once suppliers have caught up, I'm not sure if Teslas edge holds.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#32

Post by mewpmewp2 » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

terafo wrote: post #29

sidcool wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering they are a new company on a manufacturing time scale, it's pretty impressive.

That's very impressive indeed and if they can keep growing like this few more years they will definitely have more revenue than any other car company and might be top 1 by cars produced in less than a decade.

I wonder how it will impact their data collection for self driving.

There's many people here who hate on Tesla, but when seeing YouTube videos of Tesla owners posting footage of self-driving I'm constantly amazed and perplexed how far they have come and how intelligent the car appears to be. There's obviously edge cases where it fails and will be hard to iron out, but it definitely doesn't seem impossible based on countless of videos I have seen. It's amazing and I don't understand how anyone can reject this as a major advance in technology and where humanity will eventually arrive.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#33

Post by CyberRage » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

lastofthemojito wrote: post #28

CyberRage wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's far far worse. Tesla is probably the only company in the world that produces\designs its own batteries, motors and electronics. Most "competitors" are just buying batteries\electronics from a vendor and shoving it in. Tesla partnered with Panasonic and created their own custom modules(2170), now they plan to do everything with the newly announced 4680(from raw materials to products). They are truly unmatched.

Henry Ford created a factory "capable of taking in raw materials on one end and spitting out finished automobiles on the other". [0] Not all automakers have done things that way though, and other automakers are able to complete with Ford. Vertical integration can sometimes be an asset, other times the "Not Invented Here" culture proves limiting. Tesla's had incredible success thus far, but we probably need a couple m…

Ford had years of domination, didn't it?

It is extremely hard to predict 15 years from now but the next five years?

There are no competitors(perhaps besides Chinese battery makers) everyone is still in early R&D\prototype phases.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#34

Post by SuoDuanDao » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #21

sidcool wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering they are a new company on a manufacturing time scale, it's pretty impressive.

They're a new company but they're also not that new anymore if you consider that they've been an established player for years now.

What do you consider 'Established'? I'd consider it the first model 3 being sold so since 2017.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#35

Post by mewpmewp2 » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #19

buzzwords wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock prices are not always rational. I'm not sure why. But one of the contributing factor could be things like ETFs where stocks were bought to track a particular sector or index regardless of their financials. (I'm just guessing, I don't have a financial background)

Also Because Tesla is a meme stock? Not just a ha ha meme, but a meme similar to how Dawkins described. I'd like a figure for the split of retail and organized money in Tesla.

But isn't there just a little bit of truth behind each meme?

I mean, all I'm saying is, that there's a reason Tesla is a meme stock.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#36

Post by jcims » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

maxharris wrote: post #13

terafo wrote: post #8

For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.

These numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories…

I'm not even a layman in this area but I think a lot of the vertical integration for Tesla is purely the result of them being on the flame front of growth in new technological domains. An automaker creating new ASICs and new batteries is atypical, but they are in a much better position to both understand the demand and absorb the risk. Early automakers were in the same position, but eventually the worst ideas were filtered out and industry was able to develop around each of these areas until they could compete favorably with internally developed products.

Musk's approach for both Tesla and SpaceX seem to be a very effective to effectively push into a new domain if you have the money and the guts to try. It will be interesting to watch how they evolve over time.

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#37

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

sidcool wrote: post #15

toomuchtodo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and as long as enough investors believe in that thesis, it'll stay where its at. What's Uber's stock price and valuation after burning $30 billion dollars and still not turning a profit? (Uber picked in particular because I'm familiar with their financials)

Hasn't Tesla now been consistently posting profits?

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#38

Post by Seanambers » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

maxharris wrote: post #13

terafo wrote: post #8

For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.

These numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories…

The argument about Tesla being to small to matter is dwindling fast. Elon has publicly stated a goal of a yearly production run rate of 20 million before 2030.

And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#39

Post by ecpottinger » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

terafo wrote: post #8

For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.

What other company has that percentage growth in sales?

Re: Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#40

Post by verdverm » Sat, Oct 02, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #26

seoaeu wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't their stock valuation count on basically every year being better than the last for a long time to come?

Their stock valuation counts on them taking 60%+ of the global car market, and their cars being a computer network that generates new revenue from software improvements in perpetuity.

I have some doubt cars will be their primary source of revenue in the long run. They are also an energy company and soon to be insurance. I also don't think Tesla bot is a joke, Elon seems pretty serious about outdoing other companies for household robots (re: his comments at #codecon)