France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say • Hacker News Board

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#31

Post by sofixa » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:19 AM UTC

gatronicus wrote: post #26

One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub. I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub. Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

> One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub

Both of those are wrong.

> Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

No, there was an official procedure with multiple candidates ( France, Japan and a third one I can't recall). Australia chose the French option, even though it required significant modifications to a nuclear design to make it diesel electric.

> I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub

Furthermore, the contract included significant know-how transfers and construction in Australia, so whatever the price per sub turned out to be, it wouldn't be for the subs alone.

As for why the 4 bil per sub is wrong - they haven't decided anything. They don't know the design, upon what it will be based ( the smaller UK Astute class or the bigger US Virginias), etc. Lots of infrastructure needs to be built, and people have to be trained since Australia has no nuclear sector to speak of. So any price projection as of today is purely theoretical.

Oh and the first subs under the new contract should be available in 2040, so probably a decade later. That's a long time.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#32

Post by grandinj » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:19 AM UTC

gatronicus wrote: post #26

One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub. I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub. Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

Much more likely that the standard optimism that runs through people when they are starting new projects lead them to dramatically underestimate the difficulty of the project - which ended up being "design a new sub from scratch" instead of the intention, which was "lightly modify an existing design"

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#33

Post by alexitorg » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:20 AM UTC

gerty wrote: post #3

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

How has the French pacific strategy been wiped out? What was it?

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#34

Post by inglor_cz » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:20 AM UTC

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #20

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

> a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. It's more that Caledonia could chose to leave. But that only marginaly change the issue. France has other territories in the Pacific. > b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; That would be very illogical. France interests are not aligned with the USA. Also they are a nuclear country with a permanent seat on the UN security council. They will never be a junior…

> There is plenty to gain through the diplomatic route as long as you see China as an equal partner and not an inferior country.

Does China see other countries as equal partners? Their Howling Wolf diplomacy seems to kick in whenever anything they dislike appears in any media. See their current hatefest against Lithuania, a country with population smaller than Shanghai.

I for one am not very ready to sacrifice, e.g. freedom to criticize the Chinese system or to say that Taiwan is Taiwan and not Chinese Taipei or whatever. And I do not trust China commercially either, given their history of copying everything and then flooding markets with cheap knock-offs to undermine the original producers.

We have a load of our own problems here in the West, but we can at least discuss them mostly freely and the authoritarian developments (governmental and distributed alike) tend to get some pushback and dissent, and the dissidents do not end up in jail or shot. These are not the values of Xi's China and any partnership with it will end in Beijing dictating their demands.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#35

Post by bodge5000 » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:20 AM UTC

gerty wrote: post #3

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

Lets not pretend this was a mighty backstabbing by everyone else who france treated with nothing but kindness. I can't speak much for the US or Aus, but I wouldn't call them on good terms with the UK, beyond even the historical jibes.

I'm sure this is bad for France, don't get me wrong, but in terms of how their allies acted, its not particularly shocking or even abnormal.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#36

Post by saiya-jin » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:22 AM UTC

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

People with big egos often throw tantrums, US and other presidents are no exceptions. And you need a big ego and some other nasty personality traits to navigate super-competitive realm of high politics and end up with some powerful role.

Iran treatment after islamic revolution and temporary imprisonement of diplomats and CIA officials can be described as bruised ego / tantrum from outsiders perspective. There were great relations before and could have been good relations after if US was willing to put a blind eye on that (like it does with neighboring Saudi Arabia and all that is happening there).

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#37

Post by inglor_cz » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:22 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #28

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. It's more that Caledonia could chose to leave. But that only marginaly change the issue. France has other territories in the Pacific. > b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; That would be very illogical. France interests are not aligned with the USA. Also they are a nuclear country with a permanent seat on the UN security council. They will never be a junior…

> lobby to get the EU - Australia free trade agreement severely limited then carry on as usual This type of response always baffles me. Australia here is not buying what France is selling. If they object to that, making it harder for Australians to buy other things France is selling is the opposite of clever. And in reverse - Australia sells food and raw materials. Under what circumstances is it bad for France to tra…

In France, fierce protectionism is part of the governmental policy longer than the Republic exists. This has seeped into EU policies as well, though not to the same extent.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#38

Post by worrycue » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:22 AM UTC

gatronicus wrote: post #26

One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub. I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub. Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

That’s kind of irrelevant to the situation though. It’s not Australia changing suppliers that’s the problem but how they did it. France found out they got dropped from the news if I’m right.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#39

Post by inglor_cz » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:23 AM UTC

Balero wrote: post #10

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

> b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; Why is this logical? These partners have already shown that they are going to betray France's trust and lie to them. It would be better to be on your own than have unreliable partners, or worse ones that work against you.

Unreliable partners are Europe's mode of operation since Antiquity. The positive side is that European countries mostly know what to expect from one another. Xi's China is a new player whose intents are much less legible.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#40

Post by Adrig » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:23 AM UTC

gatronicus wrote: post #26

One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub. I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub. Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

afaik, the cost comes from the original requirement from Australia that wanted the adaptation of existing nuclear designs into diesel ones. France was one of the few willing to tackle the work, and also why this 180° change towards nuclear-powered subs is a bit weird.