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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#31

Post by Nbox9 »

tayo42 wrote: post #25
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

A lot of extra money was slushed around the economy in the last 2 years. Who has money to spend? Anyone that owns stocks or real estate.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#33

Post by TeeMassive »

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Most of these people are "experts" on paper only. They are authoritative voices hired by big actors who have a stake into making people believe that the prices will not go down. The same thing is happening for housing, crypto and meme stocks.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#34

Post by TeeMassive »

nradov wrote: post #11
reilly3000 wrote: post #4

If the price keeps dropping at this rate lumber will be free by December! /s Seriously, this is a welcome correction, and another sign that runaway inflation fears were based on hyperbole.

The new runaway inflation is in steel prices. https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-steel-prices-have-manufact...

I get a 404

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#37

Post by hellbannedguy »

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor.

If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait.

I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.)

If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. Getting approvals is the tough part.

If you get all the town, county, approvals, and have a very buildable lot (flat, no flooding, etc.). Once the foundation is poured, it step by step, and done.

(If you decide to build yourself, don't make any changes. Don't build a custom house either. A simple home will make the process go smoothly. Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut. Then again--if you have never done construction yourself, disregard everything I said. I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Muttering to Google translate to communicate with the unlicensed, unbonded, subcontractor.)

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#38

Post by stock_toaster »

neb_b wrote: post #14
nradov wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new runaway inflation is in steel prices. https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-steel-prices-have-manufact...

This link leads to a 404

404s are inflationary too, apparently.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#39

Post by toomuchtodo »

tayo42 wrote: post #25
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Mortgage borrowing costs are at historic lows.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#40

Post by [deleted] »

throwdecro wrote: post #23
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Watch out for HELOCs in what sense? Who would loan money to a homeowner with an underwater house, not matter how much they clamor?

[deleted]
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