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A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

wsj.com

31–40 of 136 posts

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#31

It’s strange that this happened. Did COVID just cause everyone to stop investing for a bit, leading to all these downstream problems? Or was this gonna happen anyway?

The main thing, particularly for ABF substrates, is that remote work drove PC volumes way higher than anyone thought.

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#33
post #24

Lol every time I see the word "feet" I'm reminded that this article isn't targeted to anyone but Americans, even when talking about manufacturing lines in Asia. My East Asian bias is showing but in all my experience I absolutely have never had to use those units in a serious professional context. Any time I see a technically-sounding article use units like "feet" and "football fields" I subconsciously find it very di…

You sir/madam, have mastered the art of saying a lot and yet saying nothing.

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#34
>Now major chip companies are resorting to unusual tactics. They are placing orders far in advance and prepaying so that substrate companies have ample cash to build more factories. Some are committing to buying the entire supply of new production lines to give their suppliers confidence to invest.

If the chip makers are investing this much money into the substrate businesses, why aren't they just purchasing some of these companies wholesale?

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#35
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between 185 million ft^2 and whatever you pick doesn't matter. It may as well be in hectares or "multiples of some lake somewhere", it's a massive number. You have, and are probably using right now, a voice controlled computer that can convert anything to anything else, by just asking. Is it really worth typing this every time an American site uses American language? We all get it, Americans with their…

I think you might have missed that I already stated that it's an irrational thing to complain about because units in nature are arbitrary, but given that no one uses these units for the topic at hand, why use them at all? Just for relatability? > It may as well be in hectares or "multiples of some lake somewhere", it's a massive number. We're saying the same thing but arguing for the opposite. Like I said, no one in…

> why use them at all? Just for relatability?

Yes. Was that hard?

The WSJ didn't write this article for you, it isn't an industry rag. This is like complaining that their scientific articles try to dumb it down for a layman's depth.

A football field or soccer field is a perfectly reasonable unit of measure when you're simply trying to convey "a lot" to someone.

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#36
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between 185 million ft^2 and whatever you pick doesn't matter. It may as well be in hectares or "multiples of some lake somewhere", it's a massive number. You have, and are probably using right now, a voice controlled computer that can convert anything to anything else, by just asking. Is it really worth typing this every time an American site uses American language? We all get it, Americans with their…

I think you might have missed that I already stated that it's an irrational thing to complain about because units in nature are arbitrary, but given that no one uses these units for the topic at hand, why use them at all? Just for relatability? > It may as well be in hectares or "multiples of some lake somewhere", it's a massive number. We're saying the same thing but arguing for the opposite. Like I said, no one in…

Yes, in short it's for relatability. You're talking about a general circulation newspaper -- and one of the very biggest at that.

At the end of the day, their customer is the general American news consumer, and what they read has to make sense to them.

A technical or industry-aware American probably won't go to WSJ first for their technical / industry news.

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#37

It’s strange that this happened. Did COVID just cause everyone to stop investing for a bit, leading to all these downstream problems? Or was this gonna happen anyway?

Chip investment was already down-shifted in 2019 because it was a down year based on historical semiconductor cycles.

Then COVID triggered a collapse of nearly all JIT supply chains (not just medical). Try getting ANY industrial or consumer product - the supply chains are all broken right now. Some of this is China intentionally fxcking us. Some of it is over dependence on outsourcing. Most is due to inherent instability of JIT as a fundamental flaw that's long been ignored.

Many supply chains have both short and long feedback loops to themselves. For example ALL the equipment required to increase semiconductor capacity always require the very same semiconductor supply chain capacity (chip making requires chips being made).

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#38

It’s strange that this happened. Did COVID just cause everyone to stop investing for a bit, leading to all these downstream problems? Or was this gonna happen anyway?

The developer of the O.MG cable has a good Twitter thread describing the issues. https://twitter.com/_mg_/status/1388321639524229120?s=21

Unrolled thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1388321639524229120.html

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#39
post #24

Lol every time I see the word "feet" I'm reminded that this article isn't targeted to anyone but Americans, even when talking about manufacturing lines in Asia. My East Asian bias is showing but in all my experience I absolutely have never had to use those units in a serious professional context. Any time I see a technically-sounding article use units like "feet" and "football fields" I subconsciously find it very di…

Yes, it is necessary to use language that is familiar to most of your audience when writing something.

Re: A big hurdle to fixing the chip shortage: substrates

#40
post #34

>Now major chip companies are resorting to unusual tactics. They are placing orders far in advance and prepaying so that substrate companies have ample cash to build more factories. Some are committing to buying the entire supply of new production lines to give their suppliers confidence to invest. If the chip makers are investing this much money into the substrate businesses, why aren't they just purchasing some of…

It costs over $5 billion dollars to build a single fab. I can only assume the more complicated chips costs 3-4 times more.

It also takes over three years to build the plant itself. We aren't even talking about the people you'd even need to employ, design, and run the place (highly specialized labor).

This is such a huge burdensome cost. It's not even a guarantee that that such an investment would even make sense once 5-years pass.

I do think there should be more fabs and having them located in one area of the world is already playing out to be a geopolitical nightmare. It's obviously going to become a national security issue for nearly every industrialized country on earth over the next decade if not sooner.

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