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The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

bbc.com

31–40 of 78 posts

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#31
post #27

I was hoping for something more about asteroids hitting earth. There’s historical examples of this which makes it far more a likely event.

An asteroid impact is presumably not a man made disaster though, for the foreseeable future at least.

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#32

I thought the article would talk about someone like Stanislav Petrov https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov or Vasily Archipov https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov_(vice_admira... Or the latest Future of Life Award lareats https://futureoflife.org/future-of-life-award

I figured it would be Vasily Archipov. Very worth reading about.

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#33

Rather than having one planet we should have a portfolio.

I know what you're saying, but part of the reason we're in this mess is that too many people care more about their portfolio than the planet.

I assume they meant a portfolio of planets?

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#34
The article fails to note reasons why neither apparent existential risk was possible.

We already had moon rocks on Earth, blasted off of the moon by bolide strikes. Likewise Mars rocks, and bits of asteroids and of other planets' moons. Maybe even Venus rocks.

Relatedly, the energy released in certain bolide strikes on Earth far exceeds anything achieved even in Tsar Bomba, itself thousands of times more powerful than Fat Man.

I have not seen any analysis of whether a bolide strike might incidentally produce substantial fusion activity. At the pressure and temperature produced, it is hard to imagine it not occurring.

It seems like there ought to be long-lived products of such fusion detectable in the K-T layer, alongside whatever the bolide carried. Some might be weakly radioactive and thus detectable at very tiny concentration.

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#35

Does SETI not count? Easy to imagine the first received ETI signal being some world-ending infohazard. [edit]: Targeting humans: a viral ideological, philosophical, or religious meme that causes us to self-destruct. A technological gift with insidious Trojan Horse functionality (a biotechnological machine with subtle side effects; a physics device that touches physics we haven't discovered). Irresistible instructions…

I myself think if any theory beyond that of the Fermi Paradox holds water it’s likely the Aurora Hypothesis which simply states that colonizing space is incredibly dangerous and therefore hard to do at scale beyond your immediate solar system, hence why we haven’t seen anything in ours

I don’t quite buy it but it feels the most plausible of all the alternative explanation for Fermi

Because of phenomenons like Simultaneous Discovery[0] I feel that we are the first of the many civilizations in the Type I to Type II transition

I personally believe we are on the precipice of finally colonizing another planet or planets long term), and therefore given the distinct possibility that life all basically started around the same time (simultaneous discovery) we are just among the first of civilizations ever, I don’t believe currently that other galactic civilizations existed or currently exist that are not at the same pace as us, as I (and I admit I have little evidence here) that simultaneous discovery applies beyond just ideas, but there may be some kind of this phenomenon in natural evolution, and making (albeit big) assumption that is true and evolution follows certain paths like our own, we just happen to be among the first civilizations to be at our level, and in fact other alien life is likely to be similarly or less advanced than us

I’m either very right or very very very wrong, I figure

[0]: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/05/12/in-the-air#ixz...

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#36

It’s moments that I read articles like this that make me wonder why I’m putting so much energy into making a better SPA or trying to engineer solutions to faster more performant web animations. I feel like I’m not using any of my technical acumen to advance human civilization but instead to line my own coffers and those of the corporation I work for. With that said, it is always good to keep in mind just how fragile…

Easiest solution to this is finding a company that can put your skills towards something that advances humanity. If no such company exists in your view, you can make one.

SPAs and code are tools. You can use them for all sorts of endeavours.

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#37
I've always wanted to have a black-hole file-shredder on display on my desk. Not a big one, just a tiny speck that would generate crazy space-time distortion effects.

I figured that it would be hard to contain on earth because it would fall to the center of the earth. So the trick is to build it in orbit.

It seem far fetch but once you decide to work in space it opens plenty of engineering shortcuts to scale-up the LHC. Space is very big, and it's already cold and a good enough vacuum, so you just need to maintain in position a few superconducting electromagnets.

You collide a few high energy particle to form one and you nurture it to make it grow.

Initially you move it by shining light or throwing things in it when the black-hole is less than 1kg, thanks to momentum conservation it's as easy as playing marbles.

Once it is in position you feed it anything you want and you build your space station and desk around the black hole. The more you shred things in it, the more mass it gets and the harder it will be to move around, but the greater the space-time distortion.

Funds you ask ? Price per kg in orbit has gone down tremendously. And there are plenty of rich people ready to use cryonics to attain immortality, so it didn't took much to convince one of them to hedge on a safer alternative to gain time. Because you see time pass slower near a black hole, and thanks to Einstein's General Relativity that has been known for more than a century. So instead of dying you get closer to your personal black-hole and you fast forward the future until the tech is ready to save you.

How could have I predicted that another stealth start-up (sponsored by the same guy ! as I later discovered) would have exactly the same idea, and now there are two black-holes orbiting earth and no way to divert them. Once they collide in exactly 1337 days their combined momentum won't allow them to orbit earth anymore...

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#38
post #4

Some big threats: - Something with the spread rate of COVID-delta, and a high lethality rate after a long incubation period. - Enriching uranium in a rather small facility. This may already have happened and been kept quiet. Laser enrichment was talked about a lot in the early 1990s, and then suddenly, after some announcements from Lawrence Livermore, things got much quieter.[1][2] As high-powered lasers get better,…

I don't think the birth rate thing is an actual existential threat

If it goes on long enough there will be opportunities and a baby boom

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#39
post #11
post #3

The article has some great examples of risks that were hyped out of proportion to their true severity. Should these things be considered? Yes. But only a little. If you halt programs completely for tail risks you'll never get anywhere. Modern examples, IMO, are: - Kessler Syndrome - Trying to prevent an asteroid hitting the earth - Nuclear war making the entire earth uninhabitable

I think you mean "probability" rather than severity. The severity of setting the atmosphere on fire is extreme, but the probability turned out to be vanishingly small. Or perhaps you mean risk, probability times severity. Which also turned out to be negligible for the events in the article. Some other hyped risks: - - Artificial General Intelligence - CRISPR gene editing - Gain-of-function work with viruses I have no…

Creating a black hole, with the LHC, that consumes the earth

Re: The moments that could have accidentally ended humanity

#40

It’s moments that I read articles like this that make me wonder why I’m putting so much energy into making a better SPA or trying to engineer solutions to faster more performant web animations. I feel like I’m not using any of my technical acumen to advance human civilization but instead to line my own coffers and those of the corporation I work for. With that said, it is always good to keep in mind just how fragile…

I mean .. do you enjoy the work? I write Haskell, I make computer games, I make web apps. Mostly because it's fun and satisfying. I'm also quite good at it and it comes easily to me. I remember when I decided to go into engineering, a peer of mine from high school said "whateveracct, you're top of your class. Why aren't you going into medicine in order to do something more Worthwhile with your life?" Stuck with me ev…

In Nietzsche's words:

> A nihilist is a man who judges of the world as it is that it ought not to be, and of the world as it ought to be that it does not exist. According to this view, our existence (action, suffering, willing, feeling) has no meaning: the pathos of 'in vain' is the nihilists' pathos – at the same time, as pathos, an inconsistency on the part of the nihilists.

Where is Nietzsche's nihilism in what you describe? How is your peer's worldview nihilistic when they place a high value on the effect of your potential actions on the world?

Surely for a nihilist, "to have made an impact" is a non-goal.

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