Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#31

Post by Panther34543 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

The ongoing eviction moratorium comes up quite a bit in real estate circles as one of the many reasons for current prices.

Of course, the very low rates, high construction costs, demand to leave cities, and various other factors also come into play. However, yesterday I was very surprised to learn that the eviction moratorium that is preventing landlords from selling their properties is actually an order from the Centers for Disease Control. When and why did that organization get that sort of power?

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#32

Post by strangattractor » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

I keep hearing about a housing shortage. How we are not building fast enough. I personally know several people that own more than one home and AirBnB it when not in use. Also hedge funds are now targeting real estate. I can't help but wonder if this is partially an AirBnB and hedge fund created situation. Of course these are the same people that have access to all this free money. The average Joe still has to pay interest.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#33

Post by durnygbur » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

latchkey wrote: post #2

Name something that costs less in 2021 than in the 2000s?

SSD drives, anything producing white light with LED, Lufthansa shares :D

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#34

Post by AdmiralAsshat » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

Awesome. I've been trying to buy a home since 2015 or so and noting that housing prices continue to rise, without fail, regardless of economic or political climate. Economy is doing well? Price increase! Economy is doing terribly because of global pandemic? Price increase!

I have been patiently waiting for the next "bubble" to pop, even as my realtor insists that oh no, we're not really in a bubble, this is just the new norm.

Surely this cannot continue forever, right?

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#35

Post by jmharvey » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

skywal_l wrote: post #3

So is this finally the inflation that we were promised for so long? I guess all that money created during covid had to go somewhere. Too bad it's not going into education or healthcare...

No. The first paragraph of the article states that these are inflation-adjusted prices.

> The average price of American homes, in real terms, is now the highest it's ever been

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#36

Post by lotsofpulp » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #20

They cite the numbers in "real terms", which would mean inflation adjusted: > The average price of American homes, in real terms, is now the highest it's ever been Of course, you really need to be looking at mortgage rates to understand housing affordability: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html July 2021 average 30-year mortgage rate: 2.87% (with 0.7 points) 2008 12-month average 30-year mortgage rate: 6.03% (…

I think the article is referring to 2007/2008 as peak of the 2000s housing bubble. Not 2000’s housing bubble.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#37

Post by throwaway6734 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

throw123123123 wrote: post #15

lr4444lr wrote: post #11

Don't see the important question being answered: is this price rise accompanied by lax lending standards? Almost every sober analysis of thr 2008 crash involved dysfunction in the mortgage market. Skewed supply and demand does not a bubble make.

Lax lending is not the core issue of a market crisis like 2008, it is the amount of leverage and debt. You must look at how many people have cash in their banc accounts to cover mortgages if the stock market dives 50% and rates go up 2~4%. Can that generate a cascade of foreclosures?

Isn't this assuming variable rate mortgages?

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#38

Post by jeffbee » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

larrik wrote: post #25

gnur wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything related to storage or compute? I couldn’t image having a 2tb drive 20 years ago, but having a 2tb ssd in my laptop is kind of amazing

compute? GPUs used to basically top out at $400, now the cheap ones go for more than that.

A modern GPU is literally millions of times more powerful.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#39

Post by whoisjuan » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

Is this inflation adjusted? Because otherwise I don't see the point of that article. Of course home prices are going to be higher 20 years later.

Even if the numbers analyzed are inflation adjusted, the article doesn't explain in what proportion are those prices higher than in the 2000s. If a house value was 60% up before the bubble bursted and then house values crashed 60% you have a baseline which is the deflated prices after the burst.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#40

Post by forkLding » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

latchkey wrote: post #2

Name something that costs less in 2021 than in the 2000s?

Clothes, this is observed in the stats too: https://www.officialdata.org/Apparel/price-inflation/2000-to...

This is just general apparel, of course. Likely prices have dropped due to cheap factories that have higher production capabilities and sweatshops.