Seems like Cruise should be on this list?
Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
31–37 of 37 posts
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#32"A decade from now, we'll be able to look back and say which companies or approaches were on the right track. For now, we can only guess." My first thought was that a decade from now there will be a very limited number of self driving cars on the road, still. Mostly because people (not all people, but most people) will be very scared of the technology, no matter how good it is. Every time there's an accident it'll ma…
If cities had really good public transport, and I mean really good services, plus urban planning moved on from current zoning housing / commercial / work into more mixed zone approach the demand for self-driving kind of disappears.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#33The missing possibility is that no one wins generalized self-driving. Self-driving is not a solvable or a winnable problem, because the problem or question isn’t defined. It’s a probabilistic space, where the world presents scenarios, and a computer must make a “correct” or “good” decision as often as possible, for the widest range of inputs. Because there isn’t a grand unified formula for self-driving, I’m not even…
Why is this so complicated, to me self-driving being solved is when I get into a car to get to work and don't have to touch any controls other than the AC maybe. Pretty well-defined, no?
Self-driving can still be a huge value even if it isn't totally automated between every two drivable points. I'd pay a lot of money for a car that could safely drive itself on highways alone. Get on the highway, fall-asleep, wake up at a rest stop on the other side of the country. In some ways, even better than having a private jet.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#34Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
> Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. I expect this to happen in reverse. Google will buy up some more startups in the space then eventually a traditional car maker.
Margins are too low. They'll sell the software and equipment as add-ons before they do that.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. I expect this to happen in reverse. Google will buy up some more startups in the space then eventually a traditional car maker.
Margins are too low. They'll sell the software and equipment as add-ons before they do that.
I was mentally living in the world where google didnt sell motorola after 2 years.
I can see your point and agree.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#36Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#37"A decade from now, we'll be able to look back and say which companies or approaches were on the right track. For now, we can only guess." My first thought was that a decade from now there will be a very limited number of self driving cars on the road, still. Mostly because people (not all people, but most people) will be very scared of the technology, no matter how good it is. Every time there's an accident it'll ma…
Insurance companies may well drive (pun intended) the uptake. If self-driving cars are an order of magnitude safer, insurance can be an order of magnitude less expensive. (Or, more likely, human-driven cars will become an order of magnitude more expensive to insure.)