Overthinking • Hacker News Board

Re: Overthinking

#31

Post by xyzelement » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

cuddlybacon wrote: post #28

gnulinux wrote: post #6

I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to the point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse to disregard rare risks. But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to see why some people ove…

> But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to see why some people overthink. We do this all the time. We just don't use the word "underthink". "You didn't think this through." "It sounds like you haven't gotten to the…

I think that's exactly right.

If you run into traffic and get hit by a car, the conversation is about that, not "under thinking" because the impact is painful and obvious.

However, it's more subtle for someone to notice that it takes you 30 minutes to cross the street because you're way too cautious, and the impact of that ("you could be doing a lot more with your life than standing here") is less obvious.

Re: Overthinking

#32

Post by xyzelement » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 8:46 PM UTC

andrewksl wrote: post #26

123pie123 wrote: post #25

I get called out by others for overthinking - until the risks I've pointed out become reality It's all relative - one person can be thought of overthinking and the other person can be thought of as a 'cowboy' and just winging it

I guess the difference between an overthinker and having foresight is the rate of false positives?

That's a great way to put it.

There right balance of action and caution is the thing that enables you to move forward quickly without blowing up.

It also "takes all kinds" on a team since different people have a knack for one or the other. The problem happens because most people fall in love with their preference and are blind to its downsides.

A quick tell is - whenever someone's justification for something blowing up is "oh but I have a bias for action" -- they are basically oblivious to their recklessness and underthinking. Whenever someone says "oh but I am much more cautious and thoughtful than these cowboys" they are oblivious to how little they do (vs could be doing) because they are paralyzed by overthinking.

The person I like to work with is the one who says "man, I have a bias for over/under thinking but I try to catch myself in situations where it's not appropriate"

Re: Overthinking

#33

Post by bumbada » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 8:53 PM UTC

The problem is not overthinking but losing contact with reality.

Not thinking too much, but thinking too much on the wrong things that are not important.

You focus your time, money and effort on the wrong things.

Those are not the important things because you lack knowledge about reality, about the system as a whole.

But humans solved that problem long time ago. It is called "authority". If Michael Phelps tells me I am swimming wrong and wants to give me advice I listen. Idem If John Carmark tells me how to program.

The problem is that humans could be tricked: Michael Phelps could use his authority in swimming to sell microprocesors.

Noam Chomsky could use his authority in languages to sell you totalitarian political regimes that have failed over and over again.

Also the fact that someone knows something very well does not mean that he will tell you. People can deceive you because they profit from that.

Most con mans are experts on what they do. They know very well the Truth.

An intellectual can sell you a bad political regime because he personally expects to profit from that. A youtuber can sell you a product because she is an affiliate and earns a commission.

If you know how to compensate the biases, you can get very far reading the right books, and listening to the right people.

Re: Overthinking

#34

Post by gjvc » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 8:55 PM UTC

"You're doing it all wrong." said someone doing nothing at all.

Re: Overthinking

#35

Post by mdp2021 » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 9:20 PM UTC

nuclearnice1 wrote: post #11

mdp2021 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So this friend of mine receives a call from the Director about to evaluate his work, and is told "Clearly you are brilliant, but other colleagues are faster than you... For example, yesterday I asked about X, and see how A was fast in replying?" It was not easy to express that A gave a quick response with a largely false content. It is called rushing, it came from a culture of stopping well before decent quality, and…

This great story is only half told! Is the director the hero, who gave clear feedback to her employees then listened to the response and corrected the course? Or is the director a lizard who demanded the impossible received junk in reply and didn’t recognize it even when courageously told?

These things, in different forms, happen frequently, unfortunately.

It would be interesting to know how many times the outcome is "hero" and how many "lizard", under which conditions, in which contexts etc.

Re: Overthinking

#36

Post by wintermutestwin » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 9:24 PM UTC

afarrell wrote: post #18

One struggle I have is how to simultaneously embrace uncertainty and take responsibility for the impact of my actions. A high amount of uncertainty makes me feel like I’m a chef taking chicken thighs out of a warm fridge. I think there is a time to just say “no” — even if we fear that others will accuse us of overthinking.

When it is truly important that I show up somewhere at a particular time, I factor in the long estimate of drive time and add 10 minutes. I am late <.00001 of the time. That is embracing uncertainty and taking responsibility.

Re: Overthinking

#37

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 9:31 PM UTC

xyzelement wrote: post #31

cuddlybacon wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to see why some people overthink. We do this all the time. We just don't use the word "underthink". "You didn't think this through." "It sounds like you haven't gotten to the…

I think that's exactly right. If you run into traffic and get hit by a car, the conversation is about that, not "under thinking" because the impact is painful and obvious. However, it's more subtle for someone to notice that it takes you 30 minutes to cross the street because you're way too cautious, and the impact of that ("you could be doing a lot more with your life than standing here") is less obvious.

[deleted]

Re: Overthinking

#38

Post by kodah » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 9:36 PM UTC

Yoric wrote: post #14

gnulinux wrote: post #6

I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to the point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse to disregard rare risks. But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to see why some people ove…

> I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to the point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse to disregard rare risks. Very good point. > But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to se…

> we all have different blind spots.

I'm not going to dabble in your cultural representations because I think they're a bit dangerous. I will say that maintaining the idea that we have blind spots is good, overaddressing this is usually called "hand wringing" and is equally prohibitive. To me, it's about having a mix of the two. Think about things critically, but accept that you are not in total control of the world and that any good solution takes iteration and learning.

Re: Overthinking

#39

Post by mtc010170 » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

We're all guilty of overthinking sometimes and under-thinking others.

Of course, context is everything.. so perhaps the blanket statement is a useful reminder for the author.. but also maybe dangerous advice for those reading who this just gives license to continue not putting enough thought into things they should.

A bias towards action might be a good default, but how many of us are dealing with untenable situations stemming from rushed decisions?

So be careful with this advice.. and do your best to know yourself and the situation.

Re: Overthinking

#40

Post by trhway » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 10:17 PM UTC

gnulinux wrote: post #6

I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to the point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse to disregard rare risks. But we don't have the same cultural concern against underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy to see why some people ove…

the issue is that those meta-tools - fallacies, razors, poe/godwin/etc. laws, "otherthinking", etc. - are primarily intended for people to be able to improve the quality and manage the deficiencies of their own thinking, and instead the people weaponize it to use against other people's thinking.