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China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

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Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#31

Post by AnimalMuppet »

bilbo0s wrote: post #6
cucumb3rrelish wrote: post #2

they really are keen on annoying investors aren't they. i wonder for how long tencent and the other conglomerates will obey these orders

i wonder for how long tencent and the other conglomerates will obey these orders Strange question with what I would consider to be an obvious answer. They will obey for as long as they want the profits they get from China's market of video game players for instance. Which strikes me as pretty much "forever". What company is gonna leave and give that kind of gift wrapped profit center to someone else voluntarily?

Any company, when the realize that it's no longer a profit center, and isn't likely to return to being a profit center any time soon.

The trick for China is to get the regulations in place that are necessary, without putting so many in place that it strangles profitability (and therefore destroys business). But come to think of it, that's the trick for any country when regulating.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#32

Post by itmayno »

bilbo0s wrote: post #6
cucumb3rrelish wrote: post #2

they really are keen on annoying investors aren't they. i wonder for how long tencent and the other conglomerates will obey these orders

i wonder for how long tencent and the other conglomerates will obey these orders Strange question with what I would consider to be an obvious answer. They will obey for as long as they want the profits they get from China's market of video game players for instance. Which strikes me as pretty much "forever". What company is gonna leave and give that kind of gift wrapped profit center to someone else voluntarily?

They will either leave voluntarily or be out of business at the whim of a dictatorship literally the next day. It’s just risk vs reward here.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#33

Post by vkou »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #21
vkou wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Why would there be a mass exodus, any shareholder board will fire a C-suite that gives up selling to the world's fastest growing market / building in the world's most capable manufacturing market. Expecting one is just wishful thinking. Boards and executives tend to care about the bottom line, and very rarely about political grandstanding. 2. Even if there were a mass exodus (Which won't happen, because #1), the f…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/china-s-c...

1. Investors selling stock has zero bearing on the operation of a factory, barring certain edge cases. Companies extract money from the stock market by issuing IPOs, after that happens, it doesn't matter to them very much at what price their shares are traded. See my previous post - just because the stock value drops, doesn't mean that actual assets, know-how, expertise, or training disappears into thin air. [1]

2. Foreigners selling will lead to locals buying. Those firms will simply go from majority-Chinese-owned, to Chinese-owned.

3. Stock markets don't just go up all the time, sometimes they correct.

[1] It does in the United States, but that's because during slumps, the government is very skittish when it comes to creating demand, outside of the MIC. The CCP takes a longer view, and actively prioritizes building up China's industrial base, as opposed to dismantling and offshoring it.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#34

Post by reccanti »

coolspot wrote: post #27
vkou wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been hearing from pundits that the collapse of China is around the corner for the past 25 years, and I have yet to see why I won't be hearing about it for the next 25.

You will not hear that because all non-sino people will be wiped out by a race-targeted virus. The Alpha version leaked, unfortunately, giving us glimpse on where they are going with the research, won’t happen again. For those who thinks my comment is outlandish: we are talking about the country that literally has concentration camps, forceful sterilization and thought police among other things.

Not used to hacker news commenters being quite so mask-off, but I suppose it was only a matter of time

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#35

Post by vkou »

itmayno wrote: post #30
vkou wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Why would there be a mass exodus, any shareholder board will fire a C-suite that gives up selling to the world's fastest growing market / building in the world's most capable manufacturing market. Expecting one is just wishful thinking. Boards and executives tend to care about the bottom line, and very rarely about political grandstanding. 2. Even if there were a mass exodus (Which won't happen, because #1), the f…

India is the fastest growing market. Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast. Not sure why we are discussing validity of exodus when public companies have already reported mass exodus of manufacturing from China.

China's GDP per capita has grown by 120% in the past 11 years. India's grew by 54%. China also started the decade at a much higher baseline than India.

India is not the fastest growing market, either in relative, or absolute terms. The number of globally-middle class people in China far eclipses the number of their counterparts in India. The rate at which people enter the global-middle class is much faster in China. It's possible that one day, India will become the fastest growing market, but that day isn't today, or tomorrow, or next year.

> Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

You simply can't re-shore the ecosystem that arose in Shenzhen. Not without two decades of hemorrhaging money, depending on government handouts, and having a much slower time to market. The labour cost isn't even the problem, there's just no supporting industry in the US that can match the turnaround times/SLAs that vendors in China offer.

It's possible for say, the US to close down its economy, build a wall of tariffs, and only buy local (And thus, eventually, at great cost, rebuild its industry. It's not a bad idea, but the electorate won't stand for it), but those factories in Shenzhen will keep operating, and will pivot towards selling to the middle class of the domestic market, and of the developing world, instead.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#36

Post by VictorPath »

vkou wrote: post #18
itmayno wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USSR followed the same path when their citizens grumbled about liberalization. State owned enterprises are now seizing power from private companies and foreign entities. Pretty soon you are going to see replays of USSR SoE dominance such as lack of innovation, bread lines, inefficient operation, and corruption. It seems xi jing ping did not fully study the downfall of USSR after all.

I've been hearing from pundits that the collapse of China is around the corner for the past 25 years, and I have yet to see why I won't be hearing about it for the next 25.

They've been saying it since 1949. Now China is the world's second (first on some measures) largest economy, and they sent a rover to Mars and are building a space station.

I had occasion to read some New York Times newspapers from 1917 and 1918, and they were filled with stories about how Mr. Lenine's (sic) government was about to fall if not already in flight. Off the mark by 70 years or so, and Russia is still run by former CP nomenklatura.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#37

Post by zo1 »

reccanti wrote: post #34
coolspot wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will not hear that because all non-sino people will be wiped out by a race-targeted virus. The Alpha version leaked, unfortunately, giving us glimpse on where they are going with the research, won’t happen again. For those who thinks my comment is outlandish: we are talking about the country that literally has concentration camps, forceful sterilization and thought police among other things.

Not used to hacker news commenters being quite so mask-off, but I suppose it was only a matter of time

Not to be too tinfoil-hatty, but why wouldn't we at least consider the possibility of this kind of "warfare"? We accept the possibility of physical, nuclear, cyber, cultural, chemical and "deadly" bio warfare. But not soft, malicious and below the radar bio warfare that this could be? Is it because they "released" it in their own country supposedly?

Anywho, I've long since realized that it's all too-easy to do both sabotage, terrorism and other evil things very easily without being caught. The fact that it doesn't happen fairly regularly on a grand scale that brings society to a halt though makes we wonder if there are an appreciable amount of such evil people that are willing or incentivized to do those evil acts. A sort of "Drake equation" look at it, I guess.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#38

Post by VictorPath »

ecshafer wrote: post #24
itmayno wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USSR followed the same path when their citizens grumbled about liberalization. State owned enterprises are now seizing power from private companies and foreign entities. Pretty soon you are going to see replays of USSR SoE dominance such as lack of innovation, bread lines, inefficient operation, and corruption. It seems xi jing ping did not fully study the downfall of USSR after all.

The causes of the downfall of the USSR seems to always line up with whatever political angle the writer has. Leftwing can point to a lack of (political) liberalization or poor planning, rightwing can point to not going further on (economic) liberalization. It's a topic that is really valuable to think tanks based on their politics and their donor's politics.

The USSR economy did pretty well under Stalin, especially during the Depression that affected the west. Khrushchev deprioritized capital expenditures and that was the beginning of the end. Similar story in the DDR around the time of Stalin's death.

Re: China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown

#40

Post by georgeecollins »

VictorPath wrote: post #38
ecshafer wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The causes of the downfall of the USSR seems to always line up with whatever political angle the writer has. Leftwing can point to a lack of (political) liberalization or poor planning, rightwing can point to not going further on (economic) liberalization. It's a topic that is really valuable to think tanks based on their politics and their donor's politics.

The USSR economy did pretty well under Stalin, especially during the Depression that affected the west. Khrushchev deprioritized capital expenditures and that was the beginning of the end. Similar story in the DDR around the time of Stalin's death.

No, that is completely wrong that the USSR economy did well during the depression.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

There are many other sources / economists who will support that, wikipedia is just the fastest.

Stalin's government did do a great job of ramping up industrial production before and during WW2.

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