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41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

arstechnica.com

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Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#31

Post by tonyedgecombe »

sharken wrote: post #27
clouddrover wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And roaming negotiations to let other electric cars use Teslas charging is still not a thing But soon: https://electrek.co/2021/07/20/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-open...

It will be interesting to see the terms and pricing for this. Charging speed is still not great, the new Skoda Enyaq iV can charge to 80% capacity in 34 minutes. That translates to 12,6 km/minute for the first 80%. A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling. The range for the Enyaq is from 300-600 km, while the diesel car is about 850 km. A new Skoda Octavia has a range of about 1100 km, so n…

>A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling.

On the other hand your EV could be charging at home whilst you sleep thereby avoiding any visits to the forecourt.

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#32

Post by sharken »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #31
sharken wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be interesting to see the terms and pricing for this. Charging speed is still not great, the new Skoda Enyaq iV can charge to 80% capacity in 34 minutes. That translates to 12,6 km/minute for the first 80%. A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling. The range for the Enyaq is from 300-600 km, while the diesel car is about 850 km. A new Skoda Octavia has a range of about 1100 km, so n…

>A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling. On the other hand your EV could be charging at home whilst you sleep thereby avoiding any visits to the forecourt.

Provided there is a charging facility at the parking lot, which there isn't currently.

If you live in a house, then EV starts to make sense.

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#33

Post by toomuchtodo »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #24
toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US prices for fuel are lower, but so is the cost of electricity in the US. It’s about half the cost per mile to drive an EV vs a light combustion vehicle.

Why is a 5 year cost of ownership relevant when a Toyota has a proven track record of lasting 10 to 20+ years and 200k to 300k+ miles without needing anything other than cheap routine care? Surely the evidence is stronger for cost per mile and cost per year being lower for a Toyota than a Tesla over the whole lifetime of the vehicle.

Most people own a car no longer than 10-12 years. If governments are phasing out combustion vehicle sales, I don’t see how 20+ year longevity is relevant when the infrastructure to support such a vehicle might not even exist at that point. Gas stations will wind down at some point as consumption tipping points are reached. Bosch in Germany is already preparing to close some facilities that produce ICE specific components.

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#34

Post by lotsofpulp »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #33
lotsofpulp wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is a 5 year cost of ownership relevant when a Toyota has a proven track record of lasting 10 to 20+ years and 200k to 300k+ miles without needing anything other than cheap routine care? Surely the evidence is stronger for cost per mile and cost per year being lower for a Toyota than a Tesla over the whole lifetime of the vehicle.

Most people own a car no longer than 10-12 years. If governments are phasing out combustion vehicle sales, I don’t see how 20+ year longevity is relevant when the infrastructure to support such a vehicle might not even exist at that point. Gas stations will wind down at some point as consumption tipping points are reached. Bosch in Germany is already preparing to close some facilities that produce ICE specific compon…

Why does it matter if they own it or not? They still get the value from a functional vehicle if/when they sell it since the buyer will pay more for it.

It is possible infrastructure for gas will be reduced in 20 years, but I doubt it will be anything noticeable to almost all people with gas vehicles.

As of Mar 2019, percent of electric vehicles sold in US was at 1.8%. That means the majority of fossil fuel cars sold in 2019 will probably be around in some way in 20 years (cars generally last much longer these days).

https://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/electrictransportation/d...

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#35

Post by sharken »

clouddrover wrote: post #30
sharken wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be interesting to see the terms and pricing for this. Charging speed is still not great, the new Skoda Enyaq iV can charge to 80% capacity in 34 minutes. That translates to 12,6 km/minute for the first 80%. A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling. The range for the Enyaq is from 300-600 km, while the diesel car is about 850 km. A new Skoda Octavia has a range of about 1100 km, so n…

> Charging speed is still not great, the new Skoda Enyaq iV can charge to 80% capacity in 34 minutes. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6 can charge 10% to 80% in 18 minutes. They use the same platform: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCqcqy29ZCc The charge curve is different from other EVs. It has two peaks. It peaks at around 225 kW initially and then has a second peak at around 175 kW.

Ioniq 5 is good proof that charging continues to improve, it charges about 22 km/minute, provided there is access to a 350 kW DC facility.

If there is only 100 kW DC available, charging will be slower than the Enyaq.

Range is a bit smaller than Enyaq and it's price is still rather high.

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#36

Post by virtualdom »

virtualdom wrote: post #19
TheRealWatson wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A solvable problem but not in the time-frame to support these 41% that are thinking about it for their next car.

If half of American commuters switched to EVs, the daily energy demand on the grid would only increase by 10-15%. The difference between peak load and average load is close to 30%, so we could handle that new EV load with the existing generation capacity. We just need market solutions to incentivize owners to charge during off peak hours, which most utilities already have via time-of-use rates and EV-specific plans.

To be more clear: the US grid with its existing generation capacity could certainly handle 41% of consumers switching to EVs. We would simply not ramp down as many power plants at night as we do now [1].

However, that would result in this additional marginal demand being satisfied mostly by fossil fuel plants: natural gas and coal, which currently ramp up and down on a daily basis. What is more likely to occur is that the new marginal demand caused by EVs will be satisfied by new capacity from solar and wind farms. Areas with good solar capacity (CA, FL, the southwest) will incentivize EVs to charge during the day, and areas with more consistent wind capacity (the midwest) will incentivize charging at night. Coal plants will increasingly close for economic reasons, while existing natural gas plants will continue to run at lower capacity factors.

Depending on how electricity and carbon markets are structured, and how the costs of different generation technologies and fuels change in the future, there's a good chance that the US grid of the future will look like how I described, and that people will pay less of their income on energy services, and that the air in cities and homes will be cleaner, and that people around the world will be less at risk from the effects of climate change.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/expanded-view/el...

Re: 41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

#37

Post by tonyedgecombe »

sharken wrote: post #32
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A 10 year old diesel car can add about 200 km/minute when refueling. On the other hand your EV could be charging at home whilst you sleep thereby avoiding any visits to the forecourt.

Provided there is a charging facility at the parking lot, which there isn't currently. If you live in a house, then EV starts to make sense.

I wonder if charging at work is the alternative for people without parking. Employers would need an incentive of course but it would probably be easier to roll out than putting them in the street. Most of us are at work for eight hours a day which is more than enough to cope with the longest commutes.
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