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Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

doxa.substack.com

31–40 of 69 posts

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#31
post #6
post #5

The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten year…

I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…

The two scenarios are not comparable, US has 11 carriers, China only has 1-2 right now. The US could also use its forward bases in Japan and South Korea. China doesn't have any equivalent of those.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#32
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.

It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.

Most of the studies and wargames have shown that invading Taiwan will be incredibly difficult. If Taiwan chooses to fight, they will be able to inflict serious casualties on PLA/PLAN forces. China's best plan is to slowly increase ties with Taiwan over time. But they don't seem to have the necessary patience (witness Hong Kong). From a military perspective, they could do a blockade, and I doubt the US or others would seriously try to break such a blockade.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#33
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.

It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.

It would be very much like Normandy in the sense that there are only a few beaches and ports where amphibious assaults could even be attempted, there are significant shore defenses which can't be eliminated by air / missile strikes, and the weather window is only open for a few months per year.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#34
post #19

The world would have much bigger problems than semiconductors if a full blown war happened in Taiwan. It won’t happen anyway. China is just Sabre rattling and beating its chest for political gain. If they were going to do it then it should have been on Trumps watch, when there was no certainty at all the USA would back its allies in a conflict. Not that there’s much certainty now.

China was afraid of Trump going to war not so much with Biden so this makes perfect sense. We will see Iran, Russia and North Korea threaten more while European countries offering more support.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#36
post #19

The world would have much bigger problems than semiconductors if a full blown war happened in Taiwan. It won’t happen anyway. China is just Sabre rattling and beating its chest for political gain. If they were going to do it then it should have been on Trumps watch, when there was no certainty at all the USA would back its allies in a conflict. Not that there’s much certainty now.

If you were to have said Russia could grab Crimea and other parts of Ukraine without much of a peep 20 years ago ... nobody would have believed you. And then it happened.

China is on a path to grabbing Taiwan and they'll have enough power that they can just 'do it' - with sufficient political cover, it's possible.

March 21s, 2031:

CPP drives internal foment in Taiwan through years of placing and supporting agents, and use more radical pro-China antagonists of the 'New Taiwanese Patriotic Party' to divide the country, they challenge the results of an election (which was by all accounts fair) after a few riots (instigated), Taiwan could wake up to find 'little green men in unmarked uniforms' all over the country - the naval bases surrounded, Chinese jets completely swarming the skies displaying imminent air superiority, 5000 of these 'little green men' facilitate the pro-China Taiwanese political leader to capture the Premier and force him to concede. They ask the Taiwanese Army to stand down - some do, some don't. Some units are surrounded, unable to fight, some units stand down, a few firefights erupt but the unprepared units are quickly disposed of by the 'little green men' and their supporting forces.

Tanks of the 'New Taiwanese Patriotic Party Army' roll through the streets, some protests erupt like in Hong Kong. The 'New Premier' formally asks China for help to 'restore civility' and China lends thousands of police to help quash the uprisings. Thousands of people dissapear never to be seen again.

Some business leaders, paid off and sympathetic to China, call for calm and peace, trying to maintain some degree of civil order so that business can continue ...

10% of the population takes sides with the 'Patriotic Taiwanese Force' and their calls for Unification with China and act as informants, enforcers in the name of peace and stability.

The world protests and enacts some sanctions, but are unwilling to challenge China's position on the UN Security Council and so the reaction amounts to a few empty words. The world opts to keep the 'integrity' of the UN rather than dissolve over the Taiwan issue.

CCP publicly proclaims they are committed to the Sovereignty of Taiwan within a 'United China' and support the new revolutionary Premier and his 'transitional government'. A couple of years later, a new constitution is enacted which formalizes Taiwanese 'Unification' with China.

I don't understand why people think that something like this won't happen.

Stalin had full control over the Communist Party in Germany during the 1920's Weimar Republic, and he was constantly formenting dissent, used thugs in the streets, and ironically with the collaboration of the 'far right' (i.e. Hitler himself, who the Communists though were useful idiots) tried to overthrow the ruling Social Democrats. They were unable to do that, but we know who eventually did.

If the world wants to ensure the sovereignty of Taiwan it'll probably take some extra love and vigilance on that issue, with intelligence support for the government there, military aid, and maybe an unofficial Navy 'base' established by some semi-permanent presence. And possibly some other commitments by the world to raise the cost of invasion for China.

China has literally stated that this is their objective, they are pretty good at moving towards their commitments, and the world is an unstable place - a little bit of well place calamity is all it takes for some dominoes to fall.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#37
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.

It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.

And China has nothing approaching the means to project power that the Allies had by Dday

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#38
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.

Most of the studies and wargames have shown that invading Taiwan will be incredibly difficult. If Taiwan chooses to fight, they will be able to inflict serious casualties on PLA/PLAN forces. China's best plan is to slowly increase ties with Taiwan over time. But they don't seem to have the necessary patience (witness Hong Kong). From a military perspective, they could do a blockade, and I doubt the US or others would…

Why do you say that the U.S. would not "seriously try to break such a blockade"? Logistics issues? Political issues? Economic issues?

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#39
People who think this won't happen or unlikely to happen need to look at where HK is at right now and what happened to HK over the course of last few years. Taiwan is a much bigger fish and has things like TSMC that China really wants/needs. Sooner rather than later, it is actually very LIKELY to happen, esp. if Xi wants to see it happen in his days.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#40
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…

The two scenarios are not comparable, US has 11 carriers, China only has 1-2 right now. The US could also use its forward bases in Japan and South Korea. China doesn't have any equivalent of those.

Why would it need carriers? The mainland is 200km away.
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