Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#31

Post by buildingmateri » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 8:55 AM UTC

spoonjim wrote: post #20

> By far the biggest problem — and the trickiest to solve — points to machine learning’s Catch-22: There are few large, diverse data sets to train and validate a new tool on, and many of those that do exist are kept confidential for legal or business reasons. This is why China will win the AI Age.

Pretty doubtful. The top innovating nations are such because they attract the top talent from around the world, and almost no talent at all moves to China. There's a lot of breakthroughs in AI left and whoever gets the most talent is going to have the advantage.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#32

Post by martindbp » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 8:56 AM UTC

f6v wrote: post #5

debarshri wrote: post #2

This is true for every other domain. When every company calls itself a AI company these days. Therefore value of AI/ML and credibility gets diluted. It becomes very difficult to classify real orgs using hardcode stats from fake ones. When I hear "we are solving x with AI" or "AI driven", it gives me jitters.

The elephant in the room is that AI does not exist, even in "hardcore" orgs. A transformer model is not AI.

> A transformer model is not AI.

Well, it's _something_ different. It's not "code" or "programming", so whatever you want to call it, that's what's driving the investment hype.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#33

Post by SimonSword » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 8:57 AM UTC

klodolph wrote: post #16

gjulianm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with that is that misclassifying something in an image can have serious consequences. So unless ML is 100% accurate, you'll always want an alternative way to check if it's really an artifact or something serious, so, why bother making an accurate model when you'll still double check the results?

I don't follow. Why would anything need to be 100% accurate? Humans aren't 100% accurate, and there's no reason ML would need to be 100% accurate either.

I agree, that it would not need to be 100% accurate. However, automation with low accuracy would induce other kinds of errors (e.g. complacency or loss of skill in doctors). Therefore, automation shouldbe significantly better than humans to justify their use.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#34

Post by est » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 8:59 AM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #28

axelroze wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very likely. If someone is more interested in the current state of AI on a national level a very good book is AI Superpowers by Kai Fu Lee. Data is the new Oil and USA is still clinging to the old oil while China has AI as number 1 priority.

Just because China hoards more data doesn't guarantee any success. If just data collection would be enough then all crime should have been eradicated in the US by how much data NSA has.

The FBI also helps China to make sure Chinese scientists have a difficult career in USA.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#35

Post by mjburgess » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:05 AM UTC

qsort wrote: post #9

dkrysl wrote: post #3

I've been at a few startups and ML has typically meant shoddy rules-based logic or some out of the box model. Only one company applied it with rigor and even then it was a slog - lackluster results, tinkering with different models, poring through research papers to figure out where the cognitive gap came from. The rest of the company thought we were brilliant as did prospective clients. Funny thing is it's possible (…

> Funny thing is it's possible (though less common) to get paid just as much if not more doing data analysis / engineering than vaunted ML/AI work Which makes me wonder how much of the supposed magical 10x value of AI actually just comes from getting your shit together in terms of ETL and data pipelines.

99.95%

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#36

Post by dilawar » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:09 AM UTC

NIH should make it mandatory to deposit training data to a repository. Good time to have a protein bank like database for AI models and dataset.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#37

Post by ThomPete » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:21 AM UTC

buildingmateri wrote: post #31

spoonjim wrote: post #20

> By far the biggest problem — and the trickiest to solve — points to machine learning’s Catch-22: There are few large, diverse data sets to train and validate a new tool on, and many of those that do exist are kept confidential for legal or business reasons. This is why China will win the AI Age.

Pretty doubtful. The top innovating nations are such because they attract the top talent from around the world, and almost no talent at all moves to China. There's a lot of breakthroughs in AI left and whoever gets the most talent is going to have the advantage.

thats a different discussion. Parents point is that because CCP runs things the way they do, the access to otherwise hard to find datasets in the west, they will be better able to train their AIs. Not saying whether i agree or not just clarifying the argument being made.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#38

Post by ThomPete » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:24 AM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #28

axelroze wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very likely. If someone is more interested in the current state of AI on a national level a very good book is AI Superpowers by Kai Fu Lee. Data is the new Oil and USA is still clinging to the old oil while China has AI as number 1 priority.

Just because China hoards more data doesn't guarantee any success. If just data collection would be enough then all crime should have been eradicated in the US by how much data NSA has.

It guarantees more access to training data which is crucial for development of any superiority when it comes to applied AI. The US still have a better academic culture but the chinese are catching up. Nothing is inevitable.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#39

Post by gumby » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:24 AM UTC

AI has been breaking its pick at this coalface for at least 50 years, with negligible success. I don’t know why such a difficult field has been so popular.

It seems like the only result of consequence has been Zork, developed on the DM machine at the MIT AI lab in the 70s. No, it was not developed as a medical application but I believe that machine was owned by the medical decision making group.

Stanford’s Knowledge Systems Lab (Ed Feigenbaum’s lab) was next to and affiliated with the Medical School too.

Re: Machine learning is booming in medicine, but also facing a credibility crisis

#40

Post by throwaways885 » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 9:24 AM UTC

ecmascript wrote: post #15

bayesian_horse wrote: post #12

I would really like to get a job in medical ML, but without a related degree it seems impossible. I'm "only" a Veterinarian and I don't even get interviews...

Why not build something on your spare time and try to create your own job then?

How would one person bootstrap a venture in medical ML without initial funding or datasets?