The NFT market bubble has popped? • Hacker News Board

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#31

Post by gizmo » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:40 AM UTC

This mania might have one last leg up, but that's it.

The main thing to remember with markets that have ponzi characteristics is that there are tons of latecomers and few early adopters. While the early adopters might HODL in the face of a 70% downturn, the late adopters won't. They FOMOd in because they couldn't stand seeing their friends make easy money any longer. They don't have conviction because the only reason they're in is because they didn't want to miss out.

This doesn't just apply to NFTs but to everything from crypto to meme stocks (AMC, GME, BBBY, EXPR), to SPACS and to ESG stocks, to shipping and commodities, and to leveraged or speculative ETFs.

When this bubble pops many assets will be priced way below their actual value. This overreaction won't make any sense on the way down just like it hasn't made any sense on the way up.

For this it doesn't even matter if NFTs provide real value and are here to stay. It doesn't matter whether a market behaves like a ponzi because it's fraud or because it just got too much social media coverage. The only thing that matters is whether a large enough percentage of the market consists of latecomers who will panic sell. If so, any bad news and POP!

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#32

Post by iSnow » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:42 AM UTC

andrefuchs wrote: post #18

One reasons could be that Ethereum gas fees for minting a piece are extremely high at the moment. Tezos ($xtz) based platforms such as https://www.hicetnunc.xyz are thriving. The fees are next to nothing - especially compared to current alternatives.

Gas on ETH is super low right now, around 20Gwei which translates into a $1 fee for a send and maybe $5 for minting an NFT.

Tezos on the other hand is a complete ghost town, it has absolutely no traction - and I say this as a soon to be ex XTZ holder.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#33

Post by csomar » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:43 AM UTC

josalhor wrote: post #4

The bubble has popped, but these graphs show that we are still at January-February levels of bubble. I am not sure if the market has fully collapsed (Unfortunately?).

One thing I learned trading and navigating crypto markets, is that a $0 price type of collapse is not possible with a scarce token. If Bitcoin goes to 0, then anyone can buy all the possibly available bitcoins and then decide what the price will be later on. This makes it impossible for the price to reach 0 unless the protocol is hacked.

A 90-95% decline from the height could safely be considered a total collapse. Some people who got in early will still remain in the green after a total collapse.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#34

Post by arrow7000 » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:46 AM UTC

jaggirs wrote: post #25

vesinisa wrote: post #5

I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.

It makes no less sense than a painting. If you accept that an original painting has more value than a perfectly good copy, whilst being undistinguishable for anyone except a few experts, you should realize NFT's have the exact same arrangement, except 'originality' is determined by the blockchain instead of an expert.

Except that when you own a painting you actually own the physical painting. Not a key to a link to a URL of the file.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#35

Post by qwertox » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:48 AM UTC

That was a barely noticeable bubble. Was it even a market? Just because a tweet and a song got sold, and others sold some art, doesn't mean it was a real market. It was a popular trend which ceased to interest people. Like fidget spinners.

It will probably become trendy again, once Bitcoin hits the 80's, if it ever will.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#36

Post by vesinisa » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:48 AM UTC

jaggirs wrote: post #25

vesinisa wrote: post #5

I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.

It makes no less sense than a painting. If you accept that an original painting has more value than a perfectly good copy, whilst being undistinguishable for anyone except a few experts, you should realize NFT's have the exact same arrangement, except 'originality' is determined by the blockchain instead of an expert.

Well yes, exactly. The original painting has value exactly because it is not a copy. And "owning" the first tweet ever sent? What does that even mean??

At the end of the day "ownership" mostly has any meaning within the legal system. NFTs seem to create something akin to a shadow copyright but which makes no sense. Oh well, maybe I am just a simpleton.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#37

Post by bosswipe » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:49 AM UTC

jaggirs wrote: post #25

vesinisa wrote: post #5

I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.

It makes no less sense than a painting. If you accept that an original painting has more value than a perfectly good copy, whilst being undistinguishable for anyone except a few experts, you should realize NFT's have the exact same arrangement, except 'originality' is determined by the blockchain instead of an expert.

You're confounding the work of art with a kind of certificate that is nebulously attached to the art.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#38

Post by nonameiguess » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:51 AM UTC

habosa wrote: post #20

NFTs are dumb however some of the NFT markets have one cool thing that I hope sticks around: the artist gets a cut of all future sales. If you sell your NFT art for $10 and then someone resells it for $1M, you will get some percentage of the $1M. We've all heard the stories of "collector buys 10 Jackson Pollock's for $10 in the 70s, sells the collection for $100M today". Wouldn't it be nice if the artist could benefi…

The traditional method is to just write that stipulation into a normal legal contract. That's already the payment model for some types of art, most notably actors getting a forever cut of backend profit on films. This tends to lead to some creative accounting whereby profit is impossible, but it's still in the contract already. No need for the contract to be on a blockchain. Nothing was stopping Jackson Pollack from writing a stipulation into the sales contracts for this painting that he gets a cut of all future resales.

The only possible advantage of a blockchain here is if you don't trust the law, since the technology itself enforces a smart contract and doesn't rely upon recourse to a legal system. The downside is you have no recourse to a legal system, so if some owner of a digital good sells it off-chain (you give me cash, I give you possession of the wallet), there isn't much you can do.

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#39

Post by eitland » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:51 AM UTC

tiborsaas wrote: post #19

powerapple wrote: post #6

One thing I have noticed when listening to the interviews of NFT companies is that, when describing NFT is the future, the arguments from these founders are examples of people/artists made money by selling NFT online. It has become more and more a theme for cryptocurrency technology has well: the reason you should be in is that other people have made money rather than the benefit of the technology itself. It is not a…

Lots of people got "into the internet" because others have made money on it and not for the technology (html, tcp/ip, dns...) Yes, crypto is mostly focused on financial apps, so they are harder to understand than "send me 140 chars and we make a timeline of it".

All IMO:

To be honest, that example is also the weirdest one to actually break through, and together with Snapchat the ones who took it farthest into almost unusable and still made bank.

(Yo, and I think a number of other tried even further down that street but has failed AFAIK.)

Re: The NFT market bubble has popped?

#40

Post by wsc981 » Thu, Jun 03, 2021, 9:52 AM UTC

jaggirs wrote: post #25

vesinisa wrote: post #5

I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.

It makes no less sense than a painting. If you accept that an original painting has more value than a perfectly good copy, whilst being undistinguishable for anyone except a few experts, you should realize NFT's have the exact same arrangement, except 'originality' is determined by the blockchain instead of an expert.

> It makes no less sense than a painting.

Well, the high-end art market is kinda scammy, is it not [0]?

I think it's pointless to pay millions of dollars for an original painting when a decent copy can be had for a fraction of the cost. And it would look just as nice.

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[0]: https://qz.com/103091/high-end-art-is-one-of-the-most-manipu...