Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

bloombergquint.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 125 posts

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#31

Post by kingsuper20 »

spamalot159 wrote: post #11
snapetom wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the first bubble. Everyone on the inside were looking at each other as stock and salaries skyrocketed thinking this was crazy and unsustainable. But we all just shrugged because there was no stopping the hype train. Here, anyone even just tangentially involved or know the some details of AI/ML are highly skeptical that Elon's vision of self driving cars will occur in our lifetime. Yet, Elon keeps p…

To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.

I tend to give him a break since he is one of the few modern entrepreneurs that I think actually produces things of real value.

The fact that it tends to be in businesses that are among the most mature and hardest to get into is really amazing.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#32

Post by hodder »

Fake it til you make it is fine with startups, however with publicly traded securities it is fraud. Elon Musk gets away with a lot of things that most capital markets participants would be imprisoned for. I'd certainly be in jail if I did half the BS he does on an almost daily basis.

Yet, this fake it til you make model has enabled reflexivity in the growth and stock price allowing Tesla and other Musk ventures to grow and accomplish a lot with amazing speed.

An interesting study in Soros' theories. Turns out that lying about timelines, product capability (even existence), liquidity, buyouts, crypto pump and dumps, and defamation is heavily rewarded by the market. Particularly if your fame, past accomplishments, and world savior persona makes you immune to prosecution.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#33

Post by kingsuper20 »

superkuh wrote: post #3

Autonomous cars might be possible for climates without snow but they'll never be capable of driving with humans in winter till they start making the same intuitive mistakes as humans given sparse data (complete snow covering). The problem with any non-vision based location system to compensate for covered roads is that it isn't what humans use. In winter in cold climates sometimes the roads are covered with snow for…

My own guess is that the difficult-to-solve problems tend to be in surprising areas (as are the easy-to-solve).

People are so poor at driving on ice/snow that it seems like a much lower bar to clear.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#34

Post by userulluipeste »

When ADAS systems come into play, the primary concern is who's going to shoulder the blame when things fail. This autonomous driving thing is no simple nor incremental improvement, this is an overhaul in our current structure of liability. So far, with a human driving, when things go awry, blame can be easily assigned, it's simple and case can be closed. When we introduce total absolution of the former party in charge, simeone else has to step in. The only one with any control here is the producer of the vehicle, yet the scope of responsibility is far too large for anyone at the traditional levels of rigor. The consequence is that ever increasing levels of safety requirements get demanded from the self-driving technology, enough to make it at any time both insuficiently mature and an even more desired thing for how much it has to offer in order to cover the said requirements. Mr. Musk seem like a smart man to not be aware of this, which makes me think about the moral hazard of his tweets.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#35

Post by homerowilson »

mrtksn wrote: post #16
spamalot159 wrote: post #2

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…

Another good example of a pretty neat, autonomous personal rail transport system is in Morgantown WV: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgantown_Personal_Rapid_Tran...

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#37

Post by kingsuper20 »

paulcole wrote: post #10

I still can’t get over how deceptive the marketing was on the Autopilot page on Tesla.com >Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars >All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. How was it possible to know in advance what hardware will be required?

>How was it possible to know in advance what hardware will be required?

I suspect that most of the hardware is the ability of a computer to drive the car. Steering/throttle/braking inputs for example.

It could be that what you mean by 'hardware' is some combination of intelligence and sensor system.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#39

Post by akshayB »

This is how marketing works, all companies do this

Apple -- best iPhone ever so what happens to phone I purchased last year (reality - there a decent upgrades)

IBM Watson -- commercials looks like you can layoff 20% of employees as this things can work like wonders (reality - its not that smart)

Tesla -- Autopilot is not 100% auto pilot human supervision is needed at times. We are far away from 100% autonomous vehicles. I wish they selected a better name for this feature.

Post reply on HN