Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#31

Post by jrs235 » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

R-factor.

If 90%* wear masks and the R-factor of the "flu" is is low enough it "disappears". But if the R-factor for covid is high enough it still spreads even if 90%* wear masks (10% don't).

It's mindboggling how simple simple thinking can evade people.

*numbers made up for illustration purposes only

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#32

Post by _ea1k » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

You seem to be implying that Florida had no restrictions, but this just isn't the case. Even when I went a couple of months ago, masking indoors was the norm and most places still had capacity restrictions.

Queues at popular sites were socially distanced outdoors as well.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#33

Post by khuey » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

petertodd wrote: post #24

brandon272 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

> The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives, and most people already have some level of pre-existing immunity to most flu strains they're exposed to. Both due to natural infections, and vaccines. > In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly b…

Your link says that flu shot coverage is 51.8% for all people over 6 months of age. The 64% number is for children.

Flu vaccine effectiveness is not great because they have to "guess" which variants of the flu will be most prevalent months ahead of time due to the manufacturing lead times. A lot of experts are optimistic than the mRNA vaccine technology will lead to more effective flu shots.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#34

Post by nickysielicki » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

yosito wrote: post #13

al3xandre wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Virus live (mostly) in people, not on sidewalks. One of the most ridiculous example: the Thai government went to the extent of spraying disinfectant in the forest next to the Burmese border, and got pictures published in newspaper to show their great work. Comical! [1] [1] https://twitter.com/thaine…

> You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Yes, but it must have had some effect on fomite transmission of some viruses, right?

Probably not.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#35

Post by aeternum » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

I'd also like to see the data normalized by number of flu tests administered. Maybe people are just not getting tested for flu to avoid a possible covid exposure.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#36

Post by shakezula » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

kgin wrote: post #9

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

Large indoor gatherings, indoor restaurants, bars, were shut down for months. Grocery stores enforced or at least encouraged their own mask policies. What’s more in Florida, those few steps covered almost all the ways people really interact there. Like much of the US, there is almost zero spontaneous sharing of space outside of bars, restaurants, stores and churches. I personally dislike the isolation of extreme car…

I never really thought about how America's aversion to public transit could be a positive in a pandemic. Interesting point.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#37

Post by PeterisP » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

yosito wrote: post #13

al3xandre wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Virus live (mostly) in people, not on sidewalks. One of the most ridiculous example: the Thai government went to the extent of spraying disinfectant in the forest next to the Burmese border, and got pictures published in newspaper to show their great work. Comical! [1] [1] https://twitter.com/thaine…

> You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Yes, but it must have had some effect on fomite transmission of some viruses, right?

AFAIK fomite transmission on public streets and other places sprayed by such "deep cleans" isn't a common spread vector for any widespread disease, so eliminating it can't make a meaningful difference.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#38

Post by georgeplusplus » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

deelowe wrote: post #28

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

...

“Basic statistics” like occasionally wearing a mask and putting up signs to distance despite massive contrary evidence like mass protests and spring break? your numbers are a joke.

Who knew defeating flu was this easy all along!

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#39

Post by CorrectHorseBat » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

Apart from what others said. Flu is seasonal and (most of the time?) starts in Asia. With very restricted international travel flu simply has less possibilities to come over.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#40

Post by joshuamorton » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

petertodd wrote: post #24

brandon272 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

> The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives, and most people already have some level of pre-existing immunity to most flu strains they're exposed to. Both due to natural infections, and vaccines. > In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly b…

That's not at all an obvious explanation.

There obvious explanation is that different diseases have different levels of infectiousness. It just so happens that the symptoms the flu causes make it less virulent than covid-19.