Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 42 posts

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#31

Post by TheManInThePub »

sergefaguet wrote: post #15

A lot of what they are saying is that governments are losing legitimacy and ability to deliver what people want, and this will shift governance and power to other institutions that will take over much of how humanity interacts. I guess that is bleak for the spy agencies but not for the world overall. People will be happier with a reversal of the tendency of governments to get larger and a return to more fragmented co…

> People will be happier with a reversal of the tendency of governments to get larger

I disagree and suggest this is dependent on your political viewpoint.

Whilst some (very frequently in the USA!) recite the mantra of 'small government', most of us don't care how big or small a government is, providing it is effective. I'd argue an effective government is one that protects its subjects & citizens by providing universal healthcare, education, a justice system and defence to all.

Your opinions may differ!

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#32

Post by fit2rule »

The only way is up. Give me a starship, some robots, a portable industrial hub .. a few hundred likeminded folk, and we'll make a better future elsewhere.

The moment we find a spot other than Earth to set up camp, and we have a frontier .. its on.

Might happen sooner than the CIA thinks and/or is planning to allow/disallow happen, though .. it is after all, a truly meddlesome entity ...

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#33

Post by ben_w »

Isinlor wrote: post #23
ben_w wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

15 years ago, I was extremely concerned about CO2. Now? CO2 is the single major environmental issue that I think is now certain to work out fine. Why? Because PV and wind are now the cheapest forms of energy, because even when you add the cost of batteries those are still cheaper than coal and oil, and because the factories to make them are being made as quickly as possible because the eco-friendly solution is so muc…

You should not focus on the easiest emissions to eliminate. The issue is with the most difficult. Some 10% of our emissions are from steel and cement. There are no cheap green solutions here.

Focusing on the easiest gives us breathing room for the hardest. And in any case, I’m not going to solve any of the problems as I’m a software engineer rather than a civil or electrical or chemical engineer.

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#34

Post by ben_w »

AstralStorm wrote: post #22
ben_w wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

15 years ago, I was extremely concerned about CO2. Now? CO2 is the single major environmental issue that I think is now certain to work out fine. Why? Because PV and wind are now the cheapest forms of energy, because even when you add the cost of batteries those are still cheaper than coal and oil, and because the factories to make them are being made as quickly as possible because the eco-friendly solution is so muc…

2030 is easily way past due date, and fossil fuel deployments have increased lately too.

While it isn’t ideal, there is no hard cut off point between “that’s fine” and “we’re screwed”.

And the recent CO2 emission trend is irrelevant compared to 37%/year compound growth for PV. Second half of the chessboard and all that.

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#35

Post by tmaly »

Martin Gurri, a former intelligence analyst, wrote a book on this subject called Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium. Part of his thesis covers the power the public holds with decentralized information flow .

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#37

Post by dillondoyle »

Isinlor wrote: post #23
ben_w wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

15 years ago, I was extremely concerned about CO2. Now? CO2 is the single major environmental issue that I think is now certain to work out fine. Why? Because PV and wind are now the cheapest forms of energy, because even when you add the cost of batteries those are still cheaper than coal and oil, and because the factories to make them are being made as quickly as possible because the eco-friendly solution is so muc…

You should not focus on the easiest emissions to eliminate. The issue is with the most difficult. Some 10% of our emissions are from steel and cement. There are no cheap green solutions here.

Here's a chart from the EPA. says ag 10%, transport 29%.

Ag is very scary to me. another article from today on first ever drought declaration for the CO river.

How much unsustainable water use in the west is used for 'wrong' crops (or just should be none at all)? And how much from huge population growth in hot deserts just getting hotter? Meat?

And is it even possible in the near (20 years) future to for instance change air and sea transport (those giant tankers). Maybe could move to autonomous smaller ships that use sail / electric combo but batteries are heavier than oil per unit of power right? cool startup idea.

I'm so pessimistic lately feeling totally powerless and that even if we collectively get it together, we might not be able to pull it off in time.

I think it might come down to whether or not this all causes a new world wide catastrophic event to force change. Ideally realizing climate change is that event before it goes off the walls. But maybe some confrontation like wealth inequality or 'west' verse CCP (even cold to spur competition).

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-west-prepares...

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#38

Post by AnimalMuppet »

sergefaguet wrote: post #24
papito wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are describing is much closer to Mad Max than a Utopia. The world ended up as countries and governments for a reason.

Yep. The reason was that geography based communities were relevant. That reason is getting out of date. And it is important to remember that nation states are a step in an evolutionary process, not the end point. The reason these things are happening is that the world needs different institutions going forward and the failure of the old is part of that evolutionary process. And the old naturally dislikes being replac…

I have a physical body. It's going to be somewhere. I therefore care about the physical environment, security, and so on of that place. That isn't going to change until we can upload our consciousnesses. Virtual communities aren't enough to protect my body, and therefore virtual communities aren't enough.

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#39

Post by SkyPuncher »

papito wrote: post #16
sergefaguet wrote: post #15

A lot of what they are saying is that governments are losing legitimacy and ability to deliver what people want, and this will shift governance and power to other institutions that will take over much of how humanity interacts. I guess that is bleak for the spy agencies but not for the world overall. People will be happier with a reversal of the tendency of governments to get larger and a return to more fragmented co…

What you are describing is much closer to Mad Max than a Utopia. The world ended up as countries and governments for a reason.

One of the biggest takeaways from a college lit class was utopias and dystopias are the same thing, simply from different perspectives.

Re: Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak

#40

Post by papito »

tomjen3 wrote: post #20
papito wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are describing is much closer to Mad Max than a Utopia. The world ended up as countries and governments for a reason.

It did, but perhaps the grounds that made countries and governments make sense no longer apply? After all nation states as we knew them today are a rather new innovation.

You are saying that modern countries are new and out of date?

This is a simple economy of scale. A government can provide stable security - police and military - consistent services, retirement benefits, certification, education, etc.

How a bunch of warring feudal clans are going to be in vogue again is hard to see. I mean, all of this is in medieval history. Technology did not suddenly make people "ready". If anything, it made us worse.

Post reply on HN