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Without (any) skin in this game, isn’t this proclamation a bit mature? The nature of Bitcoin right now seems speculative, but will that be true also when the mining phase is over?
when is the mining phase over?
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/what-happens-bitcoin-after...
What's more concerning to me is the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Perhaps there is an argument to Bitcoin being a kind of "digital gold" even if it is all but useless as a currency. But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. I used to take part in "Dogecoin Socks for the Homeless" events. It was wonderful, everyone was trying to make something good out of what we all knew to be…
Gold is less useful than most people think:
> In a 2012 paper entitled "The Golden Dilemma",[1] Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey examined some common assumptions about gold. First they looked at gold as an inflation hedge, analyzing gold returns from 1975 (the year the U.S. came off of the gold standard), through March 2012. They found that, due to its real-price volatility, gold had not been a good inflation hedge over the short- or long-term.
* https://www.pwlcapital.com/will-gold-save-the-day/
It's only of note because of historical accident and it's use in certain cultures (along with silver as well). The Incas had piles of gold, but only used it for jewelry and such, and not as a currency.
* https://www.tourinperu.com/blog/inca-gold-culture-invasion-r...
If we didn't have the culture references of the Gold Standard, I don't think most people would accept a shiny rock as anything special. Or at least gold (Au) specifically, and not any other Period 6 element:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Period_6_element
Is there perhaps something special about Group 11 element (Cu, Ag, Au) that they should be treated as "currency"?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_11_element
They are certainly useful from a tooling perspective in some ways, but beyond that?
I’ve read most of Taleb’s books. And follow his contrarian investment advice. Being anti-fragile makes a lot of sense. Looking beyond his typical ad-hominem attacks. i.e. ‘Questioned by the user ‘Ultra_Mega_BTC’, who said that “the market is saying the opposite”, Nassim Taleb called him an “imbecile”.’ I wonder, if there’s something more to this. As in, what is he selling? He’s got the spotlight... more books? Or a d…
I also believe his rant is more likely just a rant. And he may or may not have long or short positions in Bitcoin. I also like to believe he is too sophisticated (well, to be fair, as a quant/professional trader he is very sophisticated) to think that he's influencing the market in his favor with his tweets (he knows he's not Elon Musk).
For example, there are Rai Stones[1] or Yapese stone money , which can require more than one person to move in some cases. They're not really currency per se, so it only sort of counts. But I feel like I have to allow currency with different behaviors & characteristics than the cash we all know.
I do think there is a very weird thing going on with cryptocurrencies & ever rising valuations, and it feels fake and absurd & built on madness & insanity. Social belief attributing value where there is none. But I also feel similarly about the stock market on many days, and it's non stop rise. It feels like anything we convince ourselves is worthy to be an investment target will continue to accrue worth, that there are scant balancing forces for any markets.
Also, Ethereum failed at everything that smart contracts originally promised and became a Ponzi Construction Kit.
True. But so what? The market can stay irrational for a long time and there is money to be made by taking advantage of this ponzi. Arguing about this is not useful.
I suspect this is the thinking that got bitcoin to where it is. Personally I'm glad to stay away from it as it's a high risk. I like articles like this as the educate people on the risks.
Wait, isn't this the guy with the whole shpeel about having skin in the game? And, didn't he also sell most of his BTC in February? If so, then I guess he would want us to just ignore him.
Stocks: * You buy them because they increase earnings and eventually produce dividends at a very high yield to your initial investment. * The company can issue shares suppressing the price. * The company can do stock buybacks, increasing the price. * Brokers can naked short, suppressing the price. Fiat currency * You need it to pay taxes and debts. * Endless Printing. Gold * Bought because of limited supply. * Supply…