Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress • Hacker News Board

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#31

Post by koube » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Dec 22 democrats had reached an agreement to provide $600 in stimulus, this was an agreement that had buy in and should have been pushed forward.

Dec 23 Trump announced support for a $2000 stimulus, changing the political calculus, in favor of democrats, who did eventually push through the remaining $1400 in a separate package.

Pelosi's strategic change is not a change that happened in a vacuum. Trump's announcement was all over the news and was the single most important event in the political world that day, not Pelosi's husband buying calls. Contextualizing this event around Pelosi's husband is misleading.

Ok downvote my comment all you want but this is well documented and was less than 6 months ago, and frankly it's surprising that people forgot how impactful this event was. People are still criticizing Biden over the additional check being 1400 instead of 2000.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#32

Post by BrianOnHN » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

abfan1127 wrote: post #13

mabbo wrote: post #9

The very people whose job it should be to stop this sort of thing are the ones who are profiting from it. How do you change this? No really, how can we force congress to change the rules so that elected officials can't profit from inside information? Why would they ever vote for such a bill?

trying to stop the trades is the wrong fix. The right fix is remove their ability to affect markets. Getting to choose winners and losers will always create opportunity to abuse this privilege.

Or get a handle on the wealth inequality that makes the way we compensate our top elected officials seemingly insignificant.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#33

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

gadders wrote: post #27

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

I don't know if specific trades are sketchy or legit, but I do think there should be some sort of log of net worth when you join congress, senate, houses of parliament etc and politicians be expected to explain any large gains over their time in office.

[deleted]

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#34

Post by gpm » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

abfan1127 wrote: post #13

mabbo wrote: post #9

The very people whose job it should be to stop this sort of thing are the ones who are profiting from it. How do you change this? No really, how can we force congress to change the rules so that elected officials can't profit from inside information? Why would they ever vote for such a bill?

trying to stop the trades is the wrong fix. The right fix is remove their ability to affect markets. Getting to choose winners and losers will always create opportunity to abuse this privilege.

This is fantasy, the rules by which the country is run inevitably effects the markets. Raise import taxes, local manufacturers do better, importers worse. Lower import taxes, the opposite. Build roads, construction companies and their supply chains do better. Weaken environmental laws, oil companies do better. Make it easier to sue for health damages, personal injury lawyers do better. Fund the military, defense contractors do better. Etc, etc.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#35

Post by abfan1127 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

jrockway wrote: post #20

abfan1127 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

trying to stop the trades is the wrong fix. The right fix is remove their ability to affect markets. Getting to choose winners and losers will always create opportunity to abuse this privilege.

I disagree with this. The people we elect to govern have to be able to govern. But, they maybe don't need to have any business holdings / stock while they're in office.

again, the government's role should be protection of protection of person and property. You're conflating "govern" and "control". There are other means to control. In reality, your goal will never be met because no one is going to openly step into that scenario and be altruistic, certainly not all 536 people.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#36

Post by beervirus » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

finexplained wrote: post #17

Members of congress should only be allowed to invest in SPY/VOO, VTI, and a few other broad ETFs, long only, no options.

That would be a good start. But it's still problematic for them to sell positions like that on non-public information like news of a new pandemic.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#37

Post by ralusek » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

finexplained wrote: post #17

Members of congress should only be allowed to invest in SPY/VOO, VTI, and a few other broad ETFs, long only, no options.

Hasn't the last year very clearly demonstrated that the ability to lower interest rates and print money has had far more of an impact on the market than anything else? Stocks are practically moving up and down in unison, the market is almost entirely macroeconomics driven when 40% of all USD was created in the last 12 months.

If they can invest in total market indices while having the ability to control the money supply, even if they can just go long, it doesn't matter.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#38

Post by abfan1127 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

gpm wrote: post #34

abfan1127 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

trying to stop the trades is the wrong fix. The right fix is remove their ability to affect markets. Getting to choose winners and losers will always create opportunity to abuse this privilege.

This is fantasy, the rules by which the country is run inevitably effects the markets. Raise import taxes, local manufacturers do better, importers worse. Lower import taxes, the opposite. Build roads, construction companies and their supply chains do better. Weaken environmental laws, oil companies do better. Make it easier to sue for health damages, personal injury lawyers do better. Fund the military, defense cont…

look at the trades in the article and how it was impacted by government. Did they outlaw vaccines or did they specifically award money to specific companies?

Further - it will not be reduced to zero. The goal is to move towards zero.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#39

Post by throwaway0a5e » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:52 PM UTC

gumby wrote: post #25

maxwell wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Constitutional amendment?

That's a very blunt instrument and difficult to get the wording correct.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#40

Post by weird-eye-issue » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:52 PM UTC

delecti wrote: post #22

monkeybutton wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's unfortunate; If was real time a copycat investment strategy would work, right?

IIRC, the same law that requires them to report their trades makes it illegal to use that data to profit.

There is no way it would be illegal to trade based on their disclosures