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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#31

Post by lsllc »

ghaff wrote: post #21
jMyles wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This take seems a little short-shrift to me. This is a highly unusual situation insofar as phase III monitoring is far from complete and there is no 'phase IV' (confirmatory) trial data at all yet. In the normal course of research, this is how we'd catch rare but consistent adverse effects. So, if we had complete trials on a normal timeframe, then obviously there's a different calculus to apply. But given what we kno…

>For people in the low-risk tier I don't disagree. But I will observe that many people in the low(er) risk tier are going to be traveling, eating out, having parties, etc. sooner rather than later--vaccine or not. In my very Blue state people are very obviously relaxing a whole lot more. So the question isn't whether things open up or not. It's whether people are vaccinated when they do. (Which doesn't mean all vacci…

It seems like people in the low-risk tier might be more likely to get J&J. Firstly, it's just the one shot and secondly, people who are worried about COVID are vaccine shopping because they want the perceived "higher efficacy" of the mRNA vaccines vs J&J (whereas lower-risk people might be more interested in vaccine passports than preventing symptoms).

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#32

Post by huffmsa »

bognition wrote: post #7
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

I agree that on the surface these numbers are not alarming. That said I trust that the government agencies know what they are doing here. If anything there is tremendous political pressure to NOT scrutinize the vaccines. There is enough anti-vaccine & Covid rhetoric that we should all cool it a little bit and let the experts do their jobs.

They're letting perfect -- even a single death is too many -- get in the way of good -- a small number may have shitty outcomes, but the overwhelming majority will not.

Same framework that's lead to all of the poor policy decisions over the past year.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#33

Post by jonplackett »

pithon wrote: post #29
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool" This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

Good point! I was focussing on the UK since that's where the majority of AZ vaccine users are, but you're right. I'll swap in a more international first risk!

Maybe tonight I can work out do an IP address lookup and personalise it for your locality ;)

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#34

Post by cheph »

DangerousPie wrote: post #24
Eduard wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is kneejerk statistics 101 reaction. * Hormonal birth control - years of research. Years of evidence and practice. Knowing what to do when this and that happens. Recommendations for women with known conditions not to take this and that hormonal birth control. * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. I'm fine with anyone to make a decision o…

> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern

How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#35

Post by graeme »

jonplackett wrote: post #28
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

There's lots of other things to compare it to as well. It's a roughly 1 in a million chance of dying - which is called a Micromort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort We 'spend' about one micromort of risk per day of being alive. Or you can spend one walking for 6 hours, or driving 250 miles (or 6 miles on a motorbike) I just made a website to show all the other stuff we do all the time without worrying with the…

Less, no? 1/million is the risk so far of clots, not of death.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#36

Post by hellohiyesokay »

jonplackett wrote: post #28
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

There's lots of other things to compare it to as well. It's a roughly 1 in a million chance of dying - which is called a Micromort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort We 'spend' about one micromort of risk per day of being alive. Or you can spend one walking for 6 hours, or driving 250 miles (or 6 miles on a motorbike) I just made a website to show all the other stuff we do all the time without worrying with the…

Your link only has IPv6 records but the www. subdomain has IPv4.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#37

Post by shawabawa3 »

pithon wrote: post #29
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool" This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

They are 2 cities in the UK that are ~220 miles apart, so 1 in a million people die every 220 miles driven

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#38

Post by eloff »

ceejayoz wrote: post #19
jMyles wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This take seems a little short-shrift to me. This is a highly unusual situation insofar as phase III monitoring is far from complete and there is no 'phase IV' (confirmatory) trial data at all yet. In the normal course of research, this is how we'd catch rare but consistent adverse effects. So, if we had complete trials on a normal timeframe, then obviously there's a different calculus to apply. But given what we kno…

> A pause to assess the data and allow any lag to resolve seems prudent. I don't think the drug safety system is set up to effectively evaluate the cost/benefit of the pause itself in a pandemic scenario.

That's the thing. Pausing the vaccine will kill people. Judging by the numbers so far - probably more people. But different and older people.

How does one do that math ethically? There are risks if you do and risks if you don't. The FDA is the wrong group to make that call, because they're only concerned with the first kind of risk.

In Canada we reserved the Astra Zenica vaccine for people over 55 because of the blood clot issue. I think that's probably the right call.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#39

Post by jonplackett »

nicbou wrote: post #30
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

That's a good website. I had a chuckle at some of those.

Thanks. It's been quite fun to research all the unlikely ways of dying!

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#40

Post by happytoexplain »

pithon wrote: post #29
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool" This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

Not to be rude, but are you aware that Liverpool (like London) is a city? I guess I'm unsure what the confusion is.
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