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Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

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Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#31

Post by mam2 »

porphyra wrote: post #13

Tesla fanboys seem to frequently forget the following facts: * People using lidar also use deep learning. * Lidar and HD maps are totally orthogonal concepts with nothing to do with each other. Lidar helps you avoid running into trucks without HD maps. Camera-based methods can use HD maps too. * Lidars are less affected by rain and snow than cameras are (thanks to larger optical aperture, multiple returns, and faster…

> Tesla's "big data" is not more effective than a concerted active learning data collection campaign with a moderate-sized fleet.

Provided any concurrent can build a team of people with as much focus and ressourced as tesla. Even if equal, big data from real drivers beats everything else.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#32

Post by cameldrv »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #5
benjohnson wrote: post #3

We will need better-than-vision to drive safely - whiteness all the humans that pile up in multi-car crashes when it gets foggy or snowing. Lidar, or something like it, will have to be part of the equation given that the best visual processing computers of all time (human brains) don’t get enough data from their systems to make good choices in bad weather.

Wouldn't the simple solution here to limit speed such that it can stop within the distance that can be seen to be clear ahead? I mean this is exactly how you are supposed to drive but few actually do (which leads to perverse situations where you have to drive faster than you safely can to avoid someone driving into the back of you at 70mph in heavy fog).

This is essentially impossible. Just for starters you’d never be able to pass another car in the opposite lane or pass a pedestrian standing near the curb at any reasonable speed. You’re forced to assume the other guy won’t suddenly do something crazy.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#33

Post by bpodgursky »

solidasparagus wrote: post #21
bpodgursky wrote: post #10

I don't know how this will pan out, but I've seen a lot of criticism of Tesla "only" using vision, as if it's a ridiculous concept that will never work. But humans drive... only using vision. Maybe it's not possible for Tesla to get true FSD using only video data given current technology, but the idea that it's laughable doesn't make any sense to me. People drive in new environments, using only their eyes, all the ti…

> But humans drive... only using vision. No they don't. Driving uses multiple senses. Sound is the most obvious one, but other less-well-known senses almost certainly play a role as well.

Deaf people are allowed to drive. I really don't think taste or smell help.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#34

Post by sudosysgen »

invisible wrote: post #23
verdverm wrote: post #2

hmm, I think the author missed that Waymo drove in snow 3 years ago [0], obviously outside of Pheonix. They also don't seem to understand it's CV + Lidar, not versus... I'd be surprised at a CV only system that can handle snow like seen in the Waymo example. The rest of the article does not hold up once you realize the author is in an either-or mindset and thinks Waymo is not using CV, which they are, and has vertica…

I'm a fan of both approaches, but Waymo is very heavily reliant on Lidar (and uses CV for augmenting). They have been working on this problem for 12 years now and have just launched in Phoenix, using high definition maps, lidar, and a suite of other sensors. They have Tesla has been working on this problem for somewhere close to half the time and with far fewer resources initially. Tesla has a million cars on the roa…

Waymo is more reliant on lidar necessarily because lidar provides so much more data. You'd expect any algorithm to rely more on better data sources.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#35

Post by NovemberWhiskey »

shusson wrote: post #27

> Why is Computer Vision (using neural networks) superior to LiDAR? It would be better to compare LiDAR to CMOS sensors. You can apply computer vision techniques to either.

The point here really is that fundamentally you have a simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) problem.

It's a problem that benefits from incorporation of data from multiple different sources that do not have correlated errors. The way the authors focus purely on the computer vision aspects is idiotic; I know nothing about how Tesla approaches this but I almost guarantee you that they also consume map data, vehicle kinematics and so on when updating their model.

There is no world in which adding data that allows you to discriminate between (to pick a not-entirely-random example) the white roof of an overturned semi that represents an obstacle and a bright patch of sky doesn't help enormously. The suggestion that LIDAR is only relevant to pre-mapped areas is ... bizarre and nonsensical.

The Tesla bet is just that "good enough" can be achieved with fewer sensor sources. That's it.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#36

Post by adflux »

johnmorrison wrote: post #25
adflux wrote: post #20

Another dumb post by someone who believes Tesla operates in a vacuum... Tesla is a very small player in terms of cars produced. Volkswagen has started outselling Tesla in some European countries. And dont forget about GM and Toyota. No lead is unaissalable in a highly competitive market like car manufacturing. And its not like there's no competition from the tech side either. Microsoft, Apple and Google are all worki…

What portion of Volkswagens sold are outfitted with an array of HD cameras passively collecting data?

Volkswagen sells about 10 million cars per year. If the only advantage they have is more miles recorded, please tell me how Teslas lead cant be beat by a company which outsells it 20 to 1.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#37

Post by alkonaut »

dr_faustus wrote: post #14

What lead? The main advantage of Tesla is that they have the guts to put beta quality software in cars and get away with it (from a regulatory perspective) up to now. As can be witnessed in loads of videos on YouTube, the current FSD betas still pretty much require full attention (I would say even more attention than driving youself because you have to watch the environment AND the behaviour of Autopilot). And these…

> American roads which are among the easiest to drive in the world

This. Driving in Arizona or Nevada is possible for a child. It’s not pouring down, there’s often roads so wide that ther e is a lane in each direction! Often there are road markings painted on the road. That aren’t snowed over. It’s easy mode.

I’d like to see the best efforts in some Italian alleys where you are 50/50 to have to reverse because you face another car, or a rainy single lane country road in England at night. Anything where the driver actually has to interact with other drivers, understanding eye contact, waves, social norms (who reverses? Is he in a hurry? Is she angry? Is that car parked or waiting too? Is that wave meaning I should go or is it just an angry gesture?) and not just the environment.

These things (narrow alleys, roads snowed over 6 months, oncoming traffic in the same lane) aren’t edge cases. It’s what “driving” is in many places.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#38

Post by _ea1k »

dr_faustus wrote: post #14

What lead? The main advantage of Tesla is that they have the guts to put beta quality software in cars and get away with it (from a regulatory perspective) up to now. As can be witnessed in loads of videos on YouTube, the current FSD betas still pretty much require full attention (I would say even more attention than driving youself because you have to watch the environment AND the behaviour of Autopilot). And these…

I'm not convinced that the systems currently being fielded by their competitors are better than beta quality either. Somehow they get away with it.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#39

Post by dogma1138 »

verdverm wrote: post #24
bpodgursky wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (human brains) don’t get enough data from their systems to make good choices in bad weather Why is your bar for deploying self-driving cars "far better than human performance"? We let people drive in bad conditions.

Ascribing fault and insurance claims are some likely reasons it will take better than human performance

No it won’t, insurance doesn’t need better than human performance it just needs to be able to quantify the risk and price their policy accordingly.

If there is no driver it’s already lowers the risk even at as good as a human capability because you remove one potential human casualty from the equation when it comes ride services.

If AVs are going to be slightly better at causing fewer pedestrian casualties then it reduces the risk even further.

And even if the premiums are more expensive because of higher risk the question will be are they $30-50K which is the “salary” you would have to pay a full time driver at a minimum in the west these days a year more expensive.

If Uber will have to pay $20-30K per car per year in insurance it will still be cheaper for them than to use drivers. And that’s at about 10 times the average care insurance cost right now.

Re: Tesla’s CV Approach to Autonomous Driving Built an Unassailable Lead in FSD

#40

Post by VBprogrammer »

cameldrv wrote: post #32
VBprogrammer wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the simple solution here to limit speed such that it can stop within the distance that can be seen to be clear ahead? I mean this is exactly how you are supposed to drive but few actually do (which leads to perverse situations where you have to drive faster than you safely can to avoid someone driving into the back of you at 70mph in heavy fog).

This is essentially impossible. Just for starters you’d never be able to pass another car in the opposite lane or pass a pedestrian standing near the curb at any reasonable speed. You’re forced to assume the other guy won’t suddenly do something crazy.

I think making inferences about what the rational actors you know of will do is quite a different problem to dealing with situations where there is a limit to what you can see e.g. fog or a corner for that matter.
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