I dont doubt Covid has caused a bunch of these deaths, particularly in the first wave. But it would be nice to break out suicides and overdoses, as mental health issues are on the rise as a result of lockdowns and the economic fallout.
This is FUD.
US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
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Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#32I dont doubt Covid has caused a bunch of these deaths, particularly in the first wave. But it would be nice to break out suicides and overdoses, as mental health issues are on the rise as a result of lockdowns and the economic fallout.
Here in NZ during our much harsher, but only 6 weeks, lockdown we had a small number of covid deaths, but they were eclipsed by the drop in the road toll - thru 2020 the almost lack of a flu season due to the covid precautions meant a further drop in the annual death rate.
"road toll"?
Is that an idiom or do you mean fees charged to drivers?
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#33Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?
> Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures
Is it though? As an example motor vehicle fatalities went up sharply in 2020. Is this due to the pandemic?
If anything the pandemic should have decreased car accidents, because miles driven went down. It seems there’s possibly an orthogonal force at work. Possibly the rising market share of monster pickup trucks, which are particularly deadly to pedestrians.
My point is the pandemic was obviously the biggest change that happened in 2020, but it wasn’t the only change.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here in NZ during our much harsher, but only 6 weeks, lockdown we had a small number of covid deaths, but they were eclipsed by the drop in the road toll - thru 2020 the almost lack of a flu season due to the covid precautions meant a further drop in the annual death rate.
"road toll"? Is that an idiom or do you mean fees charged to drivers?
"The death toll incurred by driving on roads".
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#35Does anyone know where to find death statistics for the US for years prior to 2020? Apparently, 3,436,576 persons died in 2020, but what was the totals for 2010 to 2019?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https... Is a good starting point. CDC is the keeper of those stats in the US.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the flue spike was without any decent form of measures I agree flu vaccines are worthless. :) > People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse. Totally agree! But I'm just saying that the spike also contain collateral deaths (for lack of a better word). And yes it's totally anecdotal that I know two of those, and not know even one person who was even hospitalized from C19.
The effectiveness of seasonal Influenza vaccination depends on two things. First we have to guess which Influenza strains to vaccinate against, if we guess the wrong strains then it doesn't much matter that you're immune because you got a different strain anyway. Second the virus drifts even if we guess perfectly and it might evade the vaccine. When you get the jab, both these things are still hard or impossible to k…
There's a third thing: Not enough people take it.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#37Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?
Best way to assess the impact in terms of deaths, but don't forget that the impact will also be on those suffering long covid symptoms.
My wife was first ill with covid this time last year, and is still suffering now. She didn't get covid that bad, wasn't hospitalised, and prior to falling ill was working out 4 days a week and a damn busy person.
Now a 15 min walk can see her needing to sleep it off for 2 hours.
We are very lucky that she wasn't working before this, as there is no way she could have worked this last year. She knows of many others who have lost jobs, houses and even partners due to the impact of their long covid.
So I'm always a little touchy when people act as though deaths is the only factor to record.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
The cdc fluview mortality page. You have to download it as csv, the web plots are flu and pnumonia eatimates. One interesting observation is that the extra deaths during the pandemic are only a third of the deaths attributed to covid. That implies that two thirds of the covid deaths would have been expected anyway last year without covid?
That's accurate of other countries. Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero.
> Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero.
The data in this post seems to contradict that so you would need to specifically address that.
The fact you said "zero" rather than some small amount gives me some doubt you are debating in good faith.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#39Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?
A journalist in Slovakia did a comparison of current weekly deaths vs extreme values for 2000-2019: https://dennikn.sk/2304197/prehliadli-sme-mozno-az-styritisi... - the grey dotted dash line is the extreme values for the last 2 decades, red line is the current deaths, black dotted dash line is the threshold of standard deviation. The most extreme value in the last 2 decades was 1411 deaths per week, last week of 202…
These weekly death stats are not useful because if no one dies in week 1, but everyone dies instead in week 2 (plus those who would have died anyway in week 2), it will show week 2 as being catastrophic, and everyone will just ignore week 1.
We need the raw annual data which basically removes this noise.
Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map
#40Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?
Best way to assess the impact in terms of deaths, but don't forget that the impact will also be on those suffering long covid symptoms. My wife was first ill with covid this time last year, and is still suffering now. She didn't get covid that bad, wasn't hospitalised, and prior to falling ill was working out 4 days a week and a damn busy person. Now a 15 min walk can see her needing to sleep it off for 2 hours. We a…
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