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Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

reuters.com

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Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#31

Post by calhoun137 »

dash2 wrote: post #3

This seems like a case where the precautionary principle is misleading. Maybe there's a small chance that the vaccine can be harmful for a few people. Meanwhile there's a large chance that not having the vaccine can increase your chance of getting COVID. Doesn't even a week's delay in vaccinating predictably increase the number of deaths in a country, perhaps by a large amount given the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic…

> Doesn't even a week's delay in vaccinating predictably increase the number of deaths in a country

One of the many unknowns about these vaccines is the length of time they give immunity, this can only be determined with confidence by looking at the data after a sufficient amount of time has passed. If the immunity only lasts for say 10-20 weeks, then getting it one week early, would mean the immunity goes away one week early as well. So in this case, I'm not sure there would be a major measurable impact. If the immunity lasts for say 50 weeks, that would be a different story.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#32

Post by oezi »

giantandroids wrote: post #8

You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven. Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates / deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances, but nothing is normal right now.

Ratio is 50/50 Biontech/AstraZeneka.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#33

Post by yokaze »

dash2 wrote: post #3

This seems like a case where the precautionary principle is misleading. Maybe there's a small chance that the vaccine can be harmful for a few people. Meanwhile there's a large chance that not having the vaccine can increase your chance of getting COVID. Doesn't even a week's delay in vaccinating predictably increase the number of deaths in a country, perhaps by a large amount given the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic…

> I'm assuming that these decisions aren't political and are genuinely being taken for medical reasons. I mean, I sure hope so.

Not that I agree with the decision, but it's more complicated. People have to trust the vaccines to actually take them. There is already the fear that the process has been rushed, and particularly with AstraZeneca, there are some trust issues. Again, I don't want to argue that the concerns themselves are founded, just that they exists.

If that is the right measure to address those concerns is not purely medical or easily quantifiable. If you don't suspend it, would people still take the vaccine? Would they take the others?

Personally, since that is the case, I think one should stick with the facts. Be transparent about it, and try not to preempt whatever people may think. I would take it without a moment of hesitation, if I would be offered the opportunity.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#34

Post by drcode »

Nursie wrote: post #20
giantandroids wrote: post #8

You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven. Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates / deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances, but nothing is normal right now.

I'm not sure at this point. When it was one suspicious death, countries suspending the vaccine definitely seemed like an overreaction, and unfortunately this particular vaccine has been something of a political football and subject of a lot of noise. But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think caution is wise. OTOH yes, we in the UK have administered a lot of this stuff, and you'd think someone would have…

> Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated thoroughly.

We don't have time for that, we can't wait for some government panel to announce in 2025 "actually the blood clots were no more common than in the general population"

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#35

Post by dcolkitt »

corndoge wrote: post #19
fasteddie31003 wrote: post #9

The pandemic has made me believe we need to be greater consiquentalists in our polices. It's pretty obvious that on the whole the AstraZeneca vax will save more people than are killed from the side effects. We don't not live in a 0 risk existence.

Is that obvious? If you have the choice between self quarantining and trying to avoid contracting a virus that, if contracted, has a low percentage of killing you, vs choosing to get a vaccine that also has a low percentage of killing you, why would you choose the vaccine?

This is like saying you should never leave your house, because you could die in a car accident. (And the chance of dying from the AZ vaccine is at most the chance of dying driving to vaccination site.)

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#36

Post by greenpresident »

yayr wrote: post #25
greenpresident wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Casual estimates are at 1700/week. https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/13714790084...

this does not seem to be official the usual figure now is 5 Million vaccinations and 30 reported deaths from blood clotting. Which appears to be not much different from the number without vaccinations. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccin...

The estimate I name is the number of additional people dying per week if we stop using AZ vaccines today.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#38

Post by ampdepolymerase »

drcode wrote: post #18
giantandroids wrote: post #8

You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven. Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates / deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances, but nothing is normal right now.

A problem with bureaucracies is that they often care deeply if people die from an action they are responsible for, but are fine if there are massive deaths due to inaction.

Exhibit A, the FDA when it comes to new drug approvals.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#39

Post by calhoun137 »

Since these vaccines got emergency use authorization, that means they did not follow the standard procedure for clinical trials.

Therefore, precautionary measures which respond dynamically to trends detected in newly available data, is the logical, ethical, and scientifically correct thing to do, imo.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#40

Post by clawoo »

Nursie wrote: post #20
giantandroids wrote: post #8

You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven. Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates / deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances, but nothing is normal right now.

I'm not sure at this point. When it was one suspicious death, countries suspending the vaccine definitely seemed like an overreaction, and unfortunately this particular vaccine has been something of a political football and subject of a lot of noise. But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think caution is wise. OTOH yes, we in the UK have administered a lot of this stuff, and you'd think someone would have…

> we in the UK have administered a lot of this stuff, and you'd think someone would have noticed a serious side effect like this

Apparently EU vaccines are produced in Europe, maybe there's something wrong in the local production facilities that's causing this. UK has only used AZ vaccines produced in the UK, afaik.

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