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The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

31–40 of 141 posts

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#31
In this case it kind of seems like what you'd want to happen is happening: we've been warned about the dangers of climate change under "business as usual" scenarios, so we're not carrying on "business as usual", but reducing our CO2 emissions.

So the question then is quite fundamental: what does it mean to describe a "business as usual" scenario that extrapolates from today? Does that mean carrying on doing what we're currently doing, or does it mean to stop caring about CO2 emissions and go back to "business as usual" ten years ago?

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#32

This reminds me of a talk I watched about research into human pheromones. The speaker talked about how literature and studies on pheromones all lead back to 1 or 2 old studies that were basically considered bunk, but researchers kept citing it, and other researchers would also cite the other studies that linked back to the original low-quality studies. His point was that the whole field of research into human pheromo…

It would surprise me if there were any areas of science that were not heavily citing falsified papers.

We are perhaps fortunate that most cited papers are not read.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#34
The article is probably right about the bare facts, but it seems much like one of those that insist that Y2K was a big nothing, and that the Population Bomb fizzled.

In each case, there was a warning that was followed by a phenomenal amount of hard work in back rooms to head off disaster. Disaster was headed off successfully, and then the people who had warned about it were criticized for their failed prediction. In the case of population, we were very, very lucky that the Green Revolution turned out to be possible. There was no reason, beforehand, to expect such an idea to work well enough. (The Green Revolution, with its dependence on fossil-fueled fertilization, has ironically contributed to the present crisis.)

Would CO2 emissions have continued on one of the higher curves, without enormous investment in solar and wind power systems, and in more efficient usage? Counterfactuals are hard to prove, but I don't see any reason to think not.

What I notice about the graph is how lines below current and projected emissions, that identify behavior needed to prevent readily predictable disaster, are omitted.

That current climate research must compare improved methods using the same reference numbers that previous papers used, despite those numbers being now obsolete, seems like a small problem compared to others faced in that field, such as the still unpredictable behavior of cloud cover in different scenarios, or of ocean currents.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#35
post #31

In this case it kind of seems like what you'd want to happen is happening: we've been warned about the dangers of climate change under "business as usual" scenarios, so we're not carrying on "business as usual", but reducing our CO2 emissions. So the question then is quite fundamental: what does it mean to describe a "business as usual" scenario that extrapolates from today? Does that mean carrying on doing what we'r…

[deleted]

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#38
post #2

Maybe off the wall, but my first thought is certificate revocation. Could there be (or is there already) a semi-centralized database of research that should no longer be cited? With maybe a dependency graph of research that maybe needs to be revisited?

There's something quite like this in US law. If you are citing a case in a legal brief, you need to make sure it hasn't been overturned along the way, so you 'Shepardize' it. From Wikipedia [0]: Shepard's Citations is a citator used in United States legal research that provides a list of all the authorities citing a particular case, statute, or other legal authority. The verb Shepardizing refers to the process of con…

this sounds like a good approach. right now every citation is an endoresement, and the choice is to support a publication or to ignore it. there should be a way to make a negative citation, that allows you to declare that the referenced publication is contradicting. as a result there would be two citation counts for each publication. like upvotes and downvotes. i believe contradicting citations do happen now, but the fact that they are contradicting can't be seen from the citation count.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#39
post #14

From my time working within an academic environment, I can attest this is absolutely true. Especially since the gatekeepers (older professors, etc) have a general interest to see these older articles cited more and referenced. It's not malicious, it's just a fact of how these things work. It's also why the general public's knowledge of how science works needs to be adjusted. Science is not a "100% correct" or "100% n…

I think we need to make the clear distinction between "Science" - the application of the Scientific Method, and "Academia" - the set of institutions, processes, and people who should be applying the scientific method, but are actually just trying to make a living in a messed-up system like the rest of us. Science is always right in the long term. Academia can be very wrong for a very long time.

> Science is always right in the long term.

... may I suggest, "application of the Scientific Method has worked better than other alternatives, so far"

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#40
post #14

From my time working within an academic environment, I can attest this is absolutely true. Especially since the gatekeepers (older professors, etc) have a general interest to see these older articles cited more and referenced. It's not malicious, it's just a fact of how these things work. It's also why the general public's knowledge of how science works needs to be adjusted. Science is not a "100% correct" or "100% n…

As Max Planck observed, science advances one funeral at a time.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

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