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Compass S-1

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31–40 of 97 posts

Re: Compass S-1

#31
post #11

$270M loss on $3.7B in revenue. If they can get opex down, there's some serious money to be made and a lot of growth left here. In my neighborhood I'm seeing more and more houses go up for sale with Compass signs.

Their single biggest expense is “commission and other transaction related expenses” which clocks in at just over 3B. I don’t know how much control they really have over commissions.

[deleted]

Re: Compass S-1

#33
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their single biggest expense is “commission and other transaction related expenses” which clocks in at just over 3B. I don’t know how much control they really have over commissions.

True but maybe the “industry standard” agent cut is open for “disruption.” (Personally I can’t fathom what the agents do today that adds $10k-$100k of value). They’ll find some data to support that they make agents more efficient and then reduce their cut. And when the agents complain, there aren’t going to be many people crying for them, especially the ones on Bravo.

Redfin is that disruption you’re describing, not Compass. Having worked with both, Compass tries to come off as more “premium” than “economical.”

Re: Compass S-1

#34
Does anyone have any familiarity with Compass platform? At first it seemed like the plan was to cut out a huge amount of busy work from agents' load and ultimately reduce the need to keep so many employed. Shaving away the cut paid out to agents would make a lot of sense. However, the story for the last year or so has been that they are simply spending a fortune buying up smaller companies and paying out higher-than-standard commissions.

Was the notion that their technology is their secret sauce abandoned? Did the platform just not meet the stated goals? The promise of their software seems gone and they look like a plain old real estate company trying to buy their way to market share with investment money.

Re: Compass S-1

#35
post #26
post #16

Its a little silly how easily a company can categorize itself as a technology company. Many of the IPOs from the past two years suggests having a website and/or having an app doesn't just make you into a tech company (WeWork is a good example of this). Compass is no doubt eager to foster unreasonable expectations for growth that surpasses the business they're actually in (as real estate brokers) and prefer to imbued…

Agreed. This point from the S1 stood out: > on average, 88% of our agent teams used our proprietary technology platform at least once per week, This doesnt sound like they built some insane tech that everyone needs to use all the time. So how exactly is the a differentiator?

Entrenchment through network effect?

Re: Compass S-1

#36
post #16

Its a little silly how easily a company can categorize itself as a technology company. Many of the IPOs from the past two years suggests having a website and/or having an app doesn't just make you into a tech company (WeWork is a good example of this). Compass is no doubt eager to foster unreasonable expectations for growth that surpasses the business they're actually in (as real estate brokers) and prefer to imbued…

Is AirBnB a tech company? I'd argue their core business has nothing to do with tech, but they've managed to become the biggest broker for temporary rentals in the US. They did need a good amount of tech to scale and be successful which is why everyone thinks of them as a tech company.

In my view, Compass is in the same boat. They want to become the middleman between buyers and agents in real estate. It's a platform play just like AirBnB. Not sure if they'll succeed, but I disagree with the premise that this is just some magic pixie dust. They need tech to scale (and there already seems to be enough to rival AirBnB).

Re: Compass S-1

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're making a purchase/sale of several hundred thousand dollars, having someone with you who has done this many times before is easily worth 5% or so. Is every agent good? Well certainly not. But it's a high-stakes transaction that most people have never done before, or have done only once before, so having a veteran of many such transactions walk you through it is easily worth a few percent of the total cost.

> easily worth 5% Easily worth a couple grand, maybe. A percentage like that? No chance in hell.

Why haven't commission percentages gone down over time? It seems like a massive margin that should be trimmed down by competition. I would think there would be more than enough room to under cut the standard rates, cover costs and still make a healthy profit. Is there a low supply of realtors that causes them to be in high demand and helps them keep up their commissions or something like that?

Re: Compass S-1

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True but maybe the “industry standard” agent cut is open for “disruption.” (Personally I can’t fathom what the agents do today that adds $10k-$100k of value). They’ll find some data to support that they make agents more efficient and then reduce their cut. And when the agents complain, there aren’t going to be many people crying for them, especially the ones on Bravo.

If you're making a purchase/sale of several hundred thousand dollars, having someone with you who has done this many times before is easily worth 5% or so. Is every agent good? Well certainly not. But it's a high-stakes transaction that most people have never done before, or have done only once before, so having a veteran of many such transactions walk you through it is easily worth a few percent of the total cost.

I'd love to see the typical breakdown of where those 5% go in a hot market like San Francisco. At a median price of $1.5mil, that's $75k in commission. I never bought a home, but that seems like it should buy a lot of services.

Re: Compass S-1

#39
post #20

> On the date of this prospectus, Robert Reffkin, our founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will hold all of the shares of our Class C common stock > Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class C common stock is entitled to 20 votes per share I'm surprised no one has proposed laws trying too crack down on founders have super-control of their company through stock…

There's no case to be made that "super control" inherently leads to unethical behavior. It may, however, negatively impact the stock price, since less investors will likely want to invest in a company with limited controls on governance. Most companies aren't Facebook and don't have Facebook growth, so ignoring them is an option.

Why is there no case to be made? It would be interesting for someone to investigate if it hasn't been already. I'm curious if that "absolute power corrupts absolutely" saying is just a saying or if it has a basis in reality. I can't recall many benevolent dictators for life from my history classes.

Re: Compass S-1

#40

> On the date of this prospectus, Robert Reffkin, our founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will hold all of the shares of our Class C common stock > Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class C common stock is entitled to 20 votes per share I'm surprised no one has proposed laws trying too crack down on founders have super-control of their company through stock…

It seems like behavior that the SEC should be pushing back on. They're charged with protecting investors and it seems like investors having no say in company management would be in conflict with that charge.
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