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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#31

Post by analyte123 »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

Yeah, you basically need to own a home to have an electric car right now. Many blue-collar workers who have to drive around a lot in the middle of nowhere are also excluded at least for the next few years.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#32

Post by ajross »

dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city)

That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted to driving in the first place, after all.

And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations. They'll keep up with demand easily as the driving stock expands. The limit, if there is one, is going to be the electrical distribution infrastructure. High voltage lines into cities aren't as cheap as we'd want.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#33

Post by djrogers »

jlj wrote: post #17
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway. So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some resistance. Cars from the early '00s are still on the road. It's gonna take another ~20yr for the fleet to turn over organically.

In the US there was a "cash for clunkers" program about 10-15 years ago that tried to clear out ineficient older model cars. It was fairly successful and stimulated purchases of newer cars. The downside was that some perfectly fine cars were scrapped. I suspect that gas stations will start swapping pumps for chargers, and that will motivate people to switch too. By the time this all happens though we will have more c…

> I suspect that gas stations will start swapping pumps for chargers, and that will motivate people to switch too.

This may happen some places, but I expect the charging infrastructure to ultimately look very different from the refueling one we have today. Today's fueling infrastructure is the way it is largely due to the difficulties of storing and pumping fuel safely (physically and environmentally speaking). There's no reason that an electric car shouldn't be able to 'refuel' at a restaurant, grocery store, or at work (ie, where we see most charging places pop up).

Having four-corners real estate and employees dedicated for electric charging all over even city is just inefficient.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#34

Post by ghaff »

bwanab wrote: post #26
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

That’s kind of funny to me. I’m old and I’ve got a manual transmission Saab. Young people who get in the car with me (back before COVID) have literally asked what that thing (the shifter) is.

I had a stick shift Honda del Sol until about a year ago. One of the last times I had it in at the dealer, the service rep had to get one of the techs to bring the car around to me after I settled up because she couldn't drive it.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#36

Post by pkulak »

maxerickson wrote: post #18
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

$10,000 buys a pretty good used ICE vehicle. How many decent electric vehicles are selling used for that price? The lower ongoing costs of electric can justify a higher upfront price, but then you are paying more up front.

You can buy a 2011 Leaf for about 3 grand. Sure, the battery is probably toast, but replace it for 5 grand, you're still well under 10, and now you have 100 miles of range and a car with the only wearable item brand new.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#37

Post by pretendscholar »

mrtnmcc wrote: post #16

Will be watching for the success of Rivian and Cybertruck to see if the rural market can accept electric.. but can't think of any good reason why not, other than pride and prejudice. (FD, I grew up in the country).

Range anxiety?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#38

Post by ghaff »

jlj wrote: post #17
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway. So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some resistance. Cars from the early '00s are still on the road. It's gonna take another ~20yr for the fleet to turn over organically.

In the US there was a "cash for clunkers" program about 10-15 years ago that tried to clear out ineficient older model cars. It was fairly successful and stimulated purchases of newer cars. The downside was that some perfectly fine cars were scrapped. I suspect that gas stations will start swapping pumps for chargers, and that will motivate people to switch too. By the time this all happens though we will have more c…

Because you want to customize it, leave stuff in it, hop in it right now, etc. Most of the cost associated with owning a car--especially outside of the snow belt--is in the mileage so having a car that spends a lot of time idle isn't really all that economically inefficient.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#39

Post by lastofthemojito »

bwanab wrote: post #26
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

That’s kind of funny to me. I’m old and I’ve got a manual transmission Saab. Young people who get in the car with me (back before COVID) have literally asked what that thing (the shifter) is.

Yeah, obviously the Miata buyers are not necessarily the average young person, but that market niche is definitely there. I think the issue of which features are desirable in new vs older cars holds though. Another example could be 4x4s - 4Runners, Land Rovers, etc - most of these are bought as family cars, and those first buyers are looking for niceties like high-end stereos, leather seats, etc. But once the trucks are older, people care less about an obsolete stereo or worn leather and more about which suspension or other off-road options it has, etc.

Going down a bit of a rabbithole there, but I'm still curious to see what the perceived desirability of used electric cars turns out to be for "average" Americans.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#40

Post by bittercynic »

Loughla wrote: post #20
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

>a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc. This has actually stopped me from buying a used EV in the last year, twice. Dealers aren't up front about used cars history in general, and, again from just the two I looked at, they are 1000% hiding any information they can regarding the battery packs. This is the largest hurdle to the used car market (after the shortage of used EV's because of their n…

In a way it is much easier to evaluate the condition of an EV battery than in internal combustion engine: start with a full charge and see how far you can drive. It may take some time, but there's really no way to fake a good battery for that kind of test.
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