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Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

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Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#31

Post by lolc »

ncmncm wrote: post #22
whatshisface wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. Dichotomous choices almost never exist. It is very easy to be wrong on most issues, simply by speaking out random opinions every time you see a situation with more than two possible truths. Never miss an opportunity to call the outcome of a d20 roll and you'll be well on y…

Those are not the choices where Oracles of Wrong are useful. When the number of choices is narrowed down to two, somebody who is only randomly wrong is just as likely to be right. But our Oracle can be counted upon to choose wrong with overwhelmingly greater than 50% accuracy.

The wise will know not to answer when both choices are wrong.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#32

Post by gherkinnn »

gibolt wrote: post #17

The British comedy panel show QI (Quite Interesting) had a segment on this. One of my favorite shows to learn all kinds of random topics. Series N, Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/PNKgry1c8Qw&t=100

Related to QI, itself a lovely show, there’s No Such Thing as a Fish [0]. A podcast by some of QI’s researchers.

0 - https://www.nosuchthingasafish.com/

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#33

Post by rlonn »

maxerickson wrote: post #8
pram wrote: post #3

I’m not convinced. They describe it as the result of having a “preference for risk” but maybe they’re just seeking novel experiences? If they’re trying new things simply because they’re new, then their behavior offers no predictive power. There’s very little risk associated with buying a different flavor of soda :V

Skimming some of the paper, it differentiates between one time purchasers of failed products (a negative signal) and repeat purchasers of failed products (a stronger negative signal).

It can still be a case of searching for novelty. I think my mother did this while I was growing up - she would try out new replacement products (primarily food) and start buying them for a while, until the household got fed up with them and we went back to the old product. Repeat purchases for sure, but the only draw was novelty. Trying out a new type of milk instead of the old one, etc.

Gadgets too - We got a bread baking machine, and used it quite a lot for a year or two, then people got tired of it being somewhat impractical, it ended up in the back of the cupboard and finally thrown away.

Wouldn't be surprised if there is a group of people for whom it is very rewarding trying out new products, and many products you can't just buy once and then consider it "tried out".

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#34

Post by toyg »

gherkinnn wrote: post #32
gibolt wrote: post #17

The British comedy panel show QI (Quite Interesting) had a segment on this. One of my favorite shows to learn all kinds of random topics. Series N, Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/PNKgry1c8Qw&t=100

Related to QI, itself a lovely show, there’s No Such Thing as a Fish [0]. A podcast by some of QI’s researchers. 0 - https://www.nosuchthingasafish.com/

Andrew Hunter Murray, one of their crew, also pops up as the host of Page 94, the Private Eye podcast, which is obviously a must for UK-based listeners: https://www.private-eye.co.uk/eyeplayer/podcast

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#35

Post by atom_arranger »

smadge wrote: post #28
georgewsinger wrote: post #4

They're called early adopters. Thank God they exist to try out/put up with our early form products :]

I think this is describing early adopters who consistently chose products that eventually fail. Perhaps there is another subgroup of early adopters who consistently choose new products that eventually persist, “harbingers of success.”

I've felt like I'm in that second group, whenever I'm a big fan of something it becomes huge (relative to when I became a fan). I should probably start investing.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#36

Post by watwut »

rlonn wrote: post #33
maxerickson wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skimming some of the paper, it differentiates between one time purchasers of failed products (a negative signal) and repeat purchasers of failed products (a stronger negative signal).

It can still be a case of searching for novelty. I think my mother did this while I was growing up - she would try out new replacement products (primarily food) and start buying them for a while, until the household got fed up with them and we went back to the old product. Repeat purchases for sure, but the only draw was novelty. Trying out a new type of milk instead of the old one, etc. Gadgets too - We got a bread…

I am one of them. I tend to do exactly that. I find new thing and if it tastes ok, I buy it multiple times and stop buying when novelty wears off. The new snack/milk/yogurt feels like fresh change more then once. I can eat it many times till it becomes "normal" at which point I loose interest.

Watermelon-flavored Oreos sounds exactly like the thing I would go for.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#37

Post by uncledave »

ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

This is my wife’s uncle. He does this all the time. If there’s one poop in a field he’ll step in it.

Recent failures include: no brand Chinese smartphone bricking on Christmas Day and losing all his photos because he didn’t want to pay for the Apple tax any more (he had an iPhone XR which is still fine!), spending more on Audi service in three years than he did on the car, garage wall collapsed after hiring someone who convinced him was respectable but came with no references, throwing his shit out of the pram at work followed by claiming victory on Facebook followed by being fired followed by being hired for an undisclosed lower sum elsewhere, setting up range extenders in his house while not understanding the problem and actually not even enabling them.

That’s just 2020. I’m slowly folding his experiences into my list of things not to do. He only gets away with it because he has some cash to fall back on which was inherited.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#38

Post by cryptica »

I'm a harbinger of failure on the supply side. Whenever I join a company or new industry or make an investment or make a prediction, it does the exact opposite of what I anticipated because of some insane global event that has nothing to do with me.

For example, I was working in a bootstrapped tech startup in online education industry which was delivering real value (really great product). But didn't really go anywhere... Then I learned that the lack of success in the education sector is probably because the entire global monetary system is a scam and so, unlike in the last thousands of years, real economic value stopped mattering as soon as I entered the workforce (what are the odds of that!?).

So I learned from this and got into an extremely hyped-up blockchain project, then right after I joined, the CEO decided to cut back on marketing and focus on development, price crashed... (what are the odds?)

So I quit and started a crypto project related to travel industry, COVID19 happens... ITO fails... WTF???

Seriously, the government should just give me free money. I don't care about pride or self-fulfillment or whatever nonsense emotion some completely useless job is supposed to bring to my shitty life. Just give me free money so that I don't have to deal with any of this shit. I don't need any fancy bling, I just want unlimited time off from having to deal with our insane economy. Too bad I can't charge companies to NOT invest in them and to stay away from their employees.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#39

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

dragontamer wrote: post #14

Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950. Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years... I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche. ------ At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

If it makes you feel better, I'm the only person I know of who still has a Microsoft Phone... running Windows 10!

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#40

Post by watwut »

pram wrote: post #3

I’m not convinced. They describe it as the result of having a “preference for risk” but maybe they’re just seeking novel experiences? If they’re trying new things simply because they’re new, then their behavior offers no predictive power. There’s very little risk associated with buying a different flavor of soda :V

Risk taking is new buzzword. Every other study on HN tend to frame pretty much everything in terms of risk taking, no matter how much strained and how little actual risk is involved. When having choice between two extraordinary safe decisions, somehow, pop journal psychology will always guess risk taking explanation.

And it is clearly guess here, the wording in article is clear on that.

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