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Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#31

Post by mns »

jsnell wrote: post #20
sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

Well, the preprint (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-vari...) from the UK has this:

>Third, we modelled increased susceptibility among children (aged 0-19) by assuming they could be as susceptible as adults (aged 20+) to infection by VOC 202012/01 given exposure.

Basically they applied their own model on a lot of noise and data and assumed certain things. It's wild were we are at this point after almost 12 months...Can't wait for the retraction of this, but by then the the harm will be done, and no one will care about the fact that most of the papers on COVID were just bad, rushed and eventually retracted, but the harm and panic they pushed out are already there and we will never be able to get over some of the things that they claimed.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#32

Post by laydn »

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought.

Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#33

Post by pakeha »

laydn wrote: post #32

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought. Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

What is the evolutionary value of killing the host (potentially) before transmission can occur? I’d have thought the sweet spot is weak enough to minimise fatality/maximise accidental transmission while strong enough to ensure minimal symptoms that result in increased transmission vectors (eg coughing)

But. I have no training.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#34

Post by smichel17 »

laydn wrote: post #32

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought. Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

I am not an expert and have no special knowledge of this particular situation.

In general, a "weaker" virus has an evolutionary advantage. Killing or disabling the host means fewer opportunities to spread.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#35

Post by anonymouse008 »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #30
m-ee wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What evidence are you saying is “quite solid”. So far everything has just a been inferred from the epidemiology and the error bars are extremely wide. I wouldn’t call that solid at all.

What you consider a solid evidence?

30% of people infected not able to walk a block without losing breath and being exhausted for a day — that’s enough evidence to say the risk profile has changed.

Infection rate does not change outcome of recovery (unless it’s resource constrained like vents or meds) and to that point — we’ve walked back the immediacy of vents because they were actually harmful to recovery. So technically the resource management argument should be reduced in weight by some factor.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#36

Post by rq1 »

laydn wrote: post #32

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought. Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

They shouldn’t as they have no will whatsoever, nor it is “fighting” our immune system.

If any (will), it shouldn’t be killing its host.

These are anthropomorphic reasoning and antagonisms.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#37

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

mns wrote: post #31
jsnell wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

Well, the preprint ( https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-vari... ) from the UK has this: >Third, we modelled increased susceptibility among children (aged 0-19) by assuming they could be as susceptible as adults (aged 20+) to infection by VOC 202012/01 given exposure. Basically they applied their own model on a lot of noise and data and assumed certain things. It's wild were we are at this point a…

Wait, so the HN crowd is still on the "Covid-19 is a hoax" bandwagon?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#38

Post by Jabbles »

irq11 wrote: post #8
saberdancer wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't speculate about 1. especially as this is a virus that is new. It didn't have wave after wave where the "deadly" strains would lose out in evolution. Death rate in London and Kent didn't seem very different to other affected areas which would imply that the virus has same severity of symptoms but it is easier to transmit/contract.

It’s not remotely clear that this strain is easier to transmit. It’s entirely hypothesis and speculation. We have seen strains quickly accelerate because of founder effect several times in 2020, and particular strains dominate in particular regions. The experimental studies that are needed to confirm a claim of evolutionary advantage have not been done, and the observational evidence is weak. Those who would panic ab…

It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes.

But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likelihood becomes significant. Not certain, but not worthy of your casual dismissal.

You dismiss their observational evidence as weak, but offer no further analysis. Please do so.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#39

Post by guscost »

laydn wrote: post #32

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought. Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/

> Trade-offs between different components of parasite fitness provide the dominant conceptual framework for understanding the adaptive evolution of virulence (Alizon et al. 2009).

...

> By far, the most widely studied trade-off involves transmission and virulence (Anderson and May, 1982; Frank, 1996; Alizon et al. 2009).

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#40

Post by auslegung »

laydn wrote: post #32

People appear to be expecting there will be "weaker" variant/strains/mutations of this virus as time goes on. I am not sure why this is the mainstream thought. Shouldn't these viruses get selectively better at fighting human immune systems? And we're throwing 750.000 new hosts to this virus worldwide every day.

I don't know much, just read a few things here and there, but viruses can get less lethal as they mutate because a virus doesn't want to kill its host, it wants to spread. Killing the host usually prevents spread.
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