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Joining Apple 40 years ago

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Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#31

Post by WalterBright »

barry-cotter wrote: post #21
WalterBright wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To grow up when land was still cheap People didn't think it was cheap at the time. The 70's had seen a boom in real estate prices, especially in California, due to the boomers moving into their home buying years. (And that was before Prop 13, which was a response to high home prices.) > the old rich people who I curse for refusing to die or reform Prop 13 and free up some affordable place to raise a new family. Sup…

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

> If building housing were legal it would.

That's a quite different scenario.

You could confiscate the homes of everyone over 60, distribute them for free to young people, and the market prices of the homes would remain the same.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#32

Post by coldtea »

barry-cotter wrote: post #21
WalterBright wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To grow up when land was still cheap People didn't think it was cheap at the time. The 70's had seen a boom in real estate prices, especially in California, due to the boomers moving into their home buying years. (And that was before Prop 13, which was a response to high home prices.) > the old rich people who I curse for refusing to die or reform Prop 13 and free up some affordable place to raise a new family. Sup…

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

>Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat

That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#33

Post by sgt »

onethought wrote: post #23
mattlutze wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the time that's passed since then, you'd be one of the old rich person. Austin sounds like an up-and-coming Valley, as do a few other really gorgeous locations around the US. The trick is to pick one and settle in early.

I think Shenzhen is the new valley of 1980. (Though to the GP you’re probably already priced out of the housing market there too )

But China is still rotten to its core. Eventually that'll backfire heavily on both Shenzhen and entrepreneurs trying their luck there.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#34

Post by WalterBright »

coldtea wrote: post #32
barry-cotter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

> Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...

Even hotel rooms are in Tokyo are tiny compared with US hotel rooms.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#35

Post by WalterBright »

Taniwha wrote: post #27
supernova87a wrote: post #4

Can you imagine moving to the Bay Area in the 80s? To grow up when land was still cheap, before college competition was cutthroat and unaffordable, when relatively simple competence could get you a solid job and VC/PE firms weren't plundering and incentivizing the latest 30-second attention-span app to reach $1B? It would be me living in Los Altos now, instead of the old rich people who I curse for refusing to die or…

I moved to the Bay Area in '84, bought a house in ~89 - house prices had just run up to what people considered then as high levels - Real Estate then leveled out and stopped rising for half a decade - it's done that on and off for 40 years - it was never 'cheap' at the time. Prop 13 was already in place in '84 - the only way to get rid of it is to vote it out, it's long past time

Prop 13 was passed in 1978.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#36

Post by barry-cotter »

coldtea wrote: post #32
barry-cotter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

> Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...

That may contribute to affordability but if supply was constrained to stop it reaching demand prices would have risen, tiny apartments or no. See San Francisco where glorified closets are a lot more expensive than in Tokyo. Prices haven’t risen in Tokyo because supply has risen. They have in many, many cities all over the Anglosphere. That’s a policy choice. Not a law of nature.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#37

Post by ido »

coldtea wrote: post #32
barry-cotter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

> Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...

That's the compromise you have to make to live in the biggest city in the world (metro population: 37 million people).

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#38

Post by barry-cotter »

WalterBright wrote: post #31
barry-cotter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

> If building housing were legal it would. That's a quite different scenario. You could confiscate the homes of everyone over 60, distribute them for free to young people, and the market prices of the homes would remain the same.

Quite. So increase supply. Build, build, build.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#39

Post by Ygg2 »

sgt wrote: post #33
onethought wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Shenzhen is the new valley of 1980. (Though to the GP you’re probably already priced out of the housing market there too )

But China is still rotten to its core. Eventually that'll backfire heavily on both Shenzhen and entrepreneurs trying their luck there.

Being rotten, never stopped anyone.

The biggest problem is that money can get easily into China, but not so easily out of it.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#40

Post by eptcyka »

sgt wrote: post #33
onethought wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Shenzhen is the new valley of 1980. (Though to the GP you’re probably already priced out of the housing market there too )

But China is still rotten to its core. Eventually that'll backfire heavily on both Shenzhen and entrepreneurs trying their luck there.

And the states are not?
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