Postdocs under pressure: ‘Can I even do this any more?’

I mean, isn't it clear, ever since the bulk creation / funding of so many colleges (and faculty positions) pre + post WW2, the US faculty job market has been on a decline ever since -- (that is, from the average postdoc's point of view of success % when seeking a faculty position).

It is structurally not a growing, dynamic market where you're going to have an easy time. I would call it stagnant, or in the worst case, cutthroat.

You do understand right, that the faculty system relies on a pyramid of people entering and leaving the system? And only a certain fraction getting to the top, and people having to vacate the top of the pyramid for anyone else to get there? (for stable, or in other words, stagnant fields)

When the US was in a college-building phase (funded by economic stimulus / public programs), all these posts were new and empty, waiting to be filled. So it enabled a generation of new professors to fill those ranks. As that became stable, now instead of a fresh pyramid you fill with eager people (who think that's still how easy it is), you have grad students and postdocs seeing who can outlast each other (or publish more) to get to the top through attrition or publishing prowess.

Certain fields, let's say, pure math, or history, until a professor retires or dies, there's just no spot for the people below even to compete for. That's why you see people going to Asia, Middle East, etc. where the new money and universities are. Follow the money. I mean this is pure population pyramid, demographic stuff that you can predict. You almost don't even need to know the student's thesis topic to say what chance he/she has of becoming a professor.

Joining the climb up the ladder in a generally stable pyramid -- it's not going to end well for the bulk majority, or be enjoyable while you do it. Especially if you have visible proof of friend, etc. following much easier paths.

Yes and no. First of all, you don't get tenure right away, so your first few years are brutal -- 80 hour weeks. You typically get "start up" funding, which eventually runs out. Then you have to come up with your own money. The basic salary is 9 months. Your summer salary comes out of your own grants. Also, if you stop making research progress, your promotions and pay raises evaporate, and it becomes difficult to promote yourself by job hopping.

Think of it like you're a shopkeeper at the mall, and someone is paying your rent for you, which is nice, but you have to figure out how to actually make money.

> you don't get tenure right away

I don't understand how you can be a professor and not be tenured, so I guess we're talking about different things.

> I don't know what you mean by my "chair".

Becoming a professor is called getting your 'chair' isn't it? I don't know any professors who don't also have tenure - that seems a contradiction in terms to me.

But if you don't know what I mean we're probably talking about different things and possibly talking at cross-purposes.

> Why don't you quit

I did after several years. I, luckily, was in CS and landed on my feet. My partner and many friends did not quit. They, unluckily, were not in CS. So I have the displeasure of seeing it from both ends of the degree and many angles.

> Is it just sunk-cost fallacy?

Some but not all. You have to realize that the entire world is gaslighting kids every day into thinking that the hole-in-one once-in-a-lifetime shot is normal and common. But it isn't. It isn't normal. What's normal is failing to make it after giving 7 years of your life for less than minimum wage because there are 1000 applicants for every hyper-specialized position and almost all of them have more experience than freshly-defended-and-posted you, even if you're coming out of Harvard or Yale. But most people at the bottom never see this until it's too late, because nobody at the top talks about this ever. Worse, people at the top constantly lie about it or dismiss how bad everything is because _they_ made it and don't see what's so bad from where they are. They're all stuck in pre-2009 mindsets before available job postings completely fell off a cliff and never recovered.

To pervert a common expression, psychological warfare is a hell of a drug.

> which means you all need to unionize

This does happen, but, I don't know where you live, culture in the US is extremely hostile to unionization. Hell, the NLRB only decided that graduate students qualified as employees and were thus _allowed_ to unionize in 2016 after more than a decade of saying otherwise.