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AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

deepmind.com

31–40 of 683 posts

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#31
This is a huge jump forward. Last year's performance already was a big step up over the previous, and this seems to go much further. So big kudos to the research team.

Nonetheless, I'd like to hear more from specialists outside the context of a marketing blog post before I fully buy into a claim of a solution.

There's also a rabbit hole about what 'solution' actually means. Is the performance sufficient for any protein folding prediction application that might arise in the future?

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#34

Been out of the field for a while, could someone currently in it qualify these results? Hyperbolic title notwithstanding, they approach 90% median free modeling accuracy. The "other 90%" still remains to be solved...

I don't think anyone on HN is going to have more authority to qualify the results than the independent experts quoted in the linked article. Among whom are numbered a Nobel laureate, the president of the group that designs the tests of protein folding systems, and the former CEO of Genentech+current CEO of Calico.

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#35
post #20

This sounds wonderful and frightening. On the one hand, now we can engineer drugs at light speed. But wasn't protein folding supposed to be NP-hard? Can deep learning find the cracks in P vs NP? Perhaps making clever guesses at prime factors because it learned some weird structural fact that has eluded mathematicians. If we break crypto, there goes the modern world. Banks, bitcoin, privacy, Internet, the whole sheban…

There is probably a team at DeepMind working on cracking simple crypto. Problem is, it can be difficult to cast the problem properly/“correcty”. How does a one way function get represented?

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#36
This is a big step forward, but the outstanding question as far as to whether or not this is useful for evaluating novel proteins, is going to be how good is the confidence metric at telling the user to trust or not trust the results. You can see from their examples, that AlphaFold is very good but not perfect. I imagine for some proteins it will still give misleading or erroneous results and if you can’t tell when that happens without verifying the structure experimentally then this will likely not be that useful for new science.

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#37

Not knowing a lot about biotechnology, I read the article and it sounds great, but how big is this as a gamechanger? Can someone comment on how big are the implications of this in, let’s say, 5 years from now, on day to day life? Does this mean that biotech is going to explode? Or just that drugs will come to market faster, perhaps cheaper for rare diseases, but from the same industry structure as always?

Protein folding is a big and important problem, so this is certainly big news if it works as well as it seems. But I wouldn't assume that this changes everything, we can already determine how proteins fold by experimental work. The disadvantage is that this is a lot of work, though the methods there also improved a lot. One question is how robust the predictions are that DeepMind produces. I would also assume that ri…

We can already determine how a few proteins (170k — which sounds like a lot, but which is only 0.09% of all currently-catalogued protein sequences) fold by experimental work.

What an accurate model of protein folding allows us to do, is to take our big database of DNA, predict protein foldings for all of it, and then stand up a search index for this database, keying each amino-acid "row" by the "words" of its predicted protein's structural features.

We could then, with a simple search query that executes in O(log n) time, find DNA targets that produce molecules with interesting structures that might be worthy of study.

This would, for example, be a game-changer in how biopharmaceutical macromolecule-therapy R&D is conducted. Right now we have to notice that some bacterium or another produces some interesting protein, and then engineer a bioreactor to get more of that protein. With this tech, we can work backward from an entirely hyothetical, under-specified "interesting protein", to figure out what catalogued-but-unstudied DNA sequences produce never-before-catalogued proteins that fit that particular functional "shape", and therefore might do the interesting thing. Then we can either directly synthesize that same DNA, or find the organism we originally sampled it from and study it more.

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#38

Not knowing a lot about biotechnology, I read the article and it sounds great, but how big is this as a gamechanger? Can someone comment on how big are the implications of this in, let’s say, 5 years from now, on day to day life? Does this mean that biotech is going to explode? Or just that drugs will come to market faster, perhaps cheaper for rare diseases, but from the same industry structure as always?

I never worked directly with protein folding or structure, but worked a bit in proteomics on teams measuring gene expression (which you could roughly think of as how much of each protein is found in this cell). IIRC there are 50,000 - potentially millions of "kinds" of proteins found in a human, and the "shape" of most of them is unknown, and that determines a lot about how they work.

So imagine you gave an iPhone to someone in the 1800's, they wouldn't understand how most of it works, but this may be analogous to them finally figuring out some key aspects of the transistor. So it's another tool in the toolbelt and like all good tools will be used in all sorts of unpredictable ways.

Someone else I'm sure could do a lot better at explaining how important shape is to understanding the function and behavior of proteins.

Re: AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

#39
post #20

This sounds wonderful and frightening. On the one hand, now we can engineer drugs at light speed. But wasn't protein folding supposed to be NP-hard? Can deep learning find the cracks in P vs NP? Perhaps making clever guesses at prime factors because it learned some weird structural fact that has eluded mathematicians. If we break crypto, there goes the modern world. Banks, bitcoin, privacy, Internet, the whole sheban…

Far from an expert on complexity theory, but NP-hard problems can be approximated in polynomial time. With Deep Learning you are doing approximation. So this is nothing ground breaking in that respect.
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