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Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

daniel-suarez.com

31–40 of 92 posts

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#31
post #14

Not related to the novel, but what is the current biggest technological challenge to asteroid mining?

I guess it depends on what your goal is. If it's just to bring back high-value metals to Earth, then that's probably the least complicated because the mass you have to move is low. I don't know the logistics of, say, gold mining in space, but you might not even bother with any on-site processing. Just grab a rock with a big gold vein and haul it back. That presupposes you know how to find such a rock.

If your goal is to setup manufacturing in space, then that's far more complicated. You'd be working with massive amounts of low-value metals and refining them into aluminum, or steel, or whatever it is you need the most of right now, and then turning the metal into usable parts for habitats or ships or mining equipment. (Whatever is too bulky to be cost effective to ship from Earth.) Again, I don't know enough about metal refining processes to make much of a guess what the logistics would entail, but I can predict it'll need a lot of intermediate products and chemicals which might or might not be available on-site, and it would consume an enormous amount of energy. That could be from solar (though the asteroid belt is quite a bit farther from the sun than we're at) or nuclear.

Nuclear generally doesn't work well in space because there's not usually any good way to get rid of excess heat, but conducting the heat to a large asteroid could work pretty well. So then you'd just have the usual barrier that putting a reactor is space will require a launch from Earth, and that makes everyone rightly nervous.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physics followed closely by economics.

Have you seen the estimated values of ores in a decent asteroid? I think it's technology and up front financing. Well, and there are probably space treaties that are problematic. I'd drop an ion drive on the asteroid and nudge it towards the earth (but not AT it), and once it's in a stable near orbit, figure out what to do with a much faster communication loop with remotes/robots: process in orbit, drop parts down to…

Yes I have seen the "estimated values" of asteroids. They're not that meaningful as they're only estimates of reserves with no regard for production. Prices of platinum group metals are what they are because known reserves are limited and production even more limited. If you suddenly increase the supply of PGMs they're now much less valuable and their price drops. Extra supply doesn't automatically create extra demand.

But that's besides the physics problems. It's not in any way simple to attach an ion rocket to an asteroid and change its orbit. Today's best ion engines used on probes deliver fractions of a Newton of thrust and requires several kilowatts of power to do so. That's just to accelerate a relatively small spacecraft (Dawn is a bit under 2 tons).

Adjusting the orbit of an asteroid of a non-trivial size with an ion engine would take orders of magnitude more fuel, power, and time than the Dawn probe. Even if by some magic you managed to mine the fuel from the asteroid itself, a technological feat unto itself, you still need power and time.

Power and time are doubly impacted because most asteroids rotate. Unless that axis of rotation is perfectly aligned with the desired trajectory you can only apply thrust for at best half the asteroid's rotation. Rotating is problematic for power generation. If the asteroid miner is solar powered it's panels would be in shadow half the asteroid's rotation so it needs extra mass and complexity for power storage. If it's nuclear powered it's radiators are in continual sunlight for half the asteroid's rotation so additional mass and complexity is needed to rotate them parallel to the bearing of the sun to remain effective.

Even with all that it could take centuries to move an asteroid of any significant size with ion engines. Even if it only took decades that is still a huge initial outlay with zero payback for decades. The only way that's even remotely sane is if you spammed every asteroid with probes to assess their composition and knew you were pulling in the Comstock Lode. But then you depressed the price of all the material and the whole effort barely pays for itself.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#33
post #14

Not related to the novel, but what is the current biggest technological challenge to asteroid mining?

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

One theory in favor of space mining is that (and I personally believe this is wishful thinking) one asteroid might have a lot of titanium in it that would be worth trillions (and probably crash the titanium market).

But again, personally I think that's wishful thinking to try and get investors to push money into a space mining company. Based on nothing whatsoever, I believe most asteroids will be made out of fairly worthless materials.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#34
post #8

I enjoyed Delta-V, but Daemon and Freedom IMO were much more entertaining

100% agree that Daemon and Freedom are top-class plausible hard sci-fi, which is surprisingly hard to come by. On the other hand, I didn't much care for Influx.

I thought they were fairly enjoyable books but I didn't find the initial scenario at all plausible.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#35
post #20
post #14

Not related to the novel, but what is the current biggest technological challenge to asteroid mining?

The process chain necessary to turn rock into a single useful metal is colossal, and has been since antiquity. The effort required to set such a chain up, in space, for not one, but for dozens of metals (modern manufacturing requires many of them), as well as other chemicals (many of whom are inputs into other processes) would be astronomical. And then you would actually need to do something useful with that metal. I…

As I understand it, there iron and nickel asteroids that aren't chemically combined with other substances like ore is on Earth. So perhaps the only processing required would be melting and reforming it.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

One theory in favor of space mining is that (and I personally believe this is wishful thinking) one asteroid might have a lot of titanium in it that would be worth trillions (and probably crash the titanium market). But again, personally I think that's wishful thinking to try and get investors to push money into a space mining company. Based on nothing whatsoever, I believe most asteroids will be made out of fairly w…

I thought the biggest cost of titanium today was extracting from the oxide, not the ore itself?

2016 prices: TiO2 $150/ton; metal $3750/ton — https://www.metalary.com/titanium-price/

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

One theory in favor of space mining is that (and I personally believe this is wishful thinking) one asteroid might have a lot of titanium in it that would be worth trillions (and probably crash the titanium market). But again, personally I think that's wishful thinking to try and get investors to push money into a space mining company. Based on nothing whatsoever, I believe most asteroids will be made out of fairly w…

The only substances that might have a chance to be profitably mined from asteroids are those that on Earth are concentrated at depths too great to be accessible and they are depleted at the Earth surface by thousands of times, or at least hundreds of times.

These elements are: 1. The 6 platinum-group elements 2. Rhenium and gold 3. Tellurium, selenium and germanium

Besides these elements, only indium might be profitable.

Indium is depleted only a little at the Earth surface, but its original abundance is very low, so additional extra-terrestrial sources could be useful.

From all the rare elements, indium is the one for which there are no good substitutes in its main applications.

Indium is completely irreplaceable in the best lighting sources (i.e. LEDs), in the best power semiconductor devices (with gallium nitride) and in the best transparent conductors (required e.g. for computer displays).

For transparent conductors there are great efforts to find a substitute and those might eventually be successful. Nevertheless until now all the alternatives have various disadvantages.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#38

in Delta-V - one character goes on a rant about how Mars is pretty much a dead end. Does anyone know how true this is?

Mars is a good training ground as it does provide you something (gravity, abundance of resources), but after we're reading to take off the training wheels, moving enough resources from Earth to Mars to build a civilization is almost the same as moving the resources to ... not Mars - keeping them in space, in (probably rotating) space stations, and moving the whole station around to wherever the resources you need are (sunlight, water, carbon, metals, ...)

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#40
post #14

Not related to the novel, but what is the current biggest technological challenge to asteroid mining?

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

I suspect the value in asteroid mining will be for building things in space that will remain in space, due to the high cost of trying to launch material out of Earth's gravity well.
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