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Interview with Paul Graham

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Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s my opinion but that was a very one sided view. And I need to read more on this but I don’t think the way he pointed it out is how anyone is proposing wealth tax.

What PG describes is basically what's proposed - the main difference is that most American proposals have a floor before it kicks in. That floor is pretty high depending on the proposal ($30-50 million), but that doesn't stop the problem of equity ownership being eaten away over time when a lot of your worth is tied up into a successful company (like Bezos). You also get other incentive problems with things like ange…

Why is disincentivizing the accumulation of massive wealth in a small subset of the population bad for society? What is the advantage to society of an individual accumulating tens of billions of dollars worth of wealth?

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn’t agree more. I read all his essays in my early 20s and became a huge fan. Not just startup advice wise, but general big picture stuff wise too. Then I saw his recent tweets and especially the essay about wealth tax, I was a bit disappointed. But as you said, his position is well earned. But I don’t see any useful real life advice from him anymore.

>Then I saw his recent tweets and especially the essay about wealth tax, I was a bit disappointed. Why? He points out [the non obvious to many fact] that wealth tax kills compounding. And this is something to seriously consider.

Unless our lightcone starts growing faster than polynomially, compounding can't happen for very long.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#33
Once upon a time I saw pg as a guy that was leveling the playing field, and I think he succeeded because of that.

As another comment pointed out, concerning his writing about the wealth tax, I think he's lost sight of the fact that's there's more wealth to be created that's outside the scope of what the wealth advisors for the uber-wealthy are familiar with.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#34
post #30

For me, this interview was disappointingly short. I'd love to see Eric Weinstein or someone similar do a long form interview with PG.

But Eric Weinstein asks of his guests to practice difficult words listeners have to find in a dictionary. He practices difficult words with an ANKI spaced repetition system himself. What I find intriguing is that Peter Thiel has yet to appear on the Joe Rogan podcast while he clearly bankrolled that operation.

Interesting—-do you have a source for either of these statements?

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What PG describes is basically what's proposed - the main difference is that most American proposals have a floor before it kicks in. That floor is pretty high depending on the proposal ($30-50 million), but that doesn't stop the problem of equity ownership being eaten away over time when a lot of your worth is tied up into a successful company (like Bezos). You also get other incentive problems with things like ange…

Why is disincentivizing the accumulation of massive wealth in a small subset of the population bad for society? What is the advantage to society of an individual accumulating tens of billions of dollars worth of wealth?

It's dis-incentivizing wealth creation in general and taking ownership away from people that build companies.

There's a compelling argument that growth (that accounts for human rights and protecting the environment) is the best way to help the most people the fastest: https://press.stripe.com/#stubborn-attachments.

Policy that dis-incentivizes wealth creation creates perverse incentives that limit growth.

We're better off with policy that limits how wealth can be leveraged into political power, and policy that helps protect and improve the lower bound of society. That said, I think it's likely reasonable to limit how wealth can be passed down generations (to prevent things like dynastic wealth, but that's a separate issue and I don't know enough to really comment on it).

Wealth creation isn't zero-sum, just because someone builds a business and creates wealth doesn't mean they're taking it from others. We want a society where people are incentivized to create and grow wealth as much as they can (within bounds for environment protection and human rights), not just to some arbitrary cap before it gets taken by the government.

All of the above ignores real modern examples that directly leverage their wealth to do things that would not be done otherwise (Elon Musk: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, Boring # Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin # Gates: Health and Public Policy). I think the general argument in favor of growth is better than these specific examples though because it's a more systemic argument about incentives for the structure of a society rather than relying on individuals and their choices.

There's also the implementation issues (which are real), but I'm not going to argue that bit just because a lot of good ideas are hard to implement but still worthwhile. The wealth tax though I think is both a bad idea and hard to implement. The bad idea bit is more important.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#36
> But a few years after it's over, we'll be acting as if [COVID] never happened. We're good at that.

I fear this prediction won't come true.

There's a great risk that 'health theatre' will join security theatre as a durable if not permanent part of our existence. That years from now, we'll be getting temperatures checked, schools will be shutting down for worse-than-usual influenzas, and so on.

I still can't bring an ordinary-sized yogurt on a plane, and have to remove my belt and shoes. Something made our society irrationally risk-averse, and I glumly suspect that COVID won't be the turning point in that trend.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s my opinion but that was a very one sided view. And I need to read more on this but I don’t think the way he pointed it out is how anyone is proposing wealth tax.

What PG describes is basically what's proposed - the main difference is that most American proposals have a floor before it kicks in. That floor is pretty high depending on the proposal ($30-50 million), but that doesn't stop the problem of equity ownership being eaten away over time when a lot of your worth is tied up into a successful company (like Bezos). You also get other incentive problems with things like ange…

> It just comes across to me as a 'hate the rich' policy that creates perverse incentives.

Indeed, wealth tax sounds good because there are problems with income inequality and it's currently fashionable to hate the rich. But that's about where it ends, while second-order effects are ignored or at least not taken seriously.

Andrew Yang was one of the few high-profile Democrats brave enough to push back on it.

"I think the wealth tax is an idea, in spirit, that makes sense, given the wealth distribution. But in practice it would have massive implementation problems. There would be capital flight, wealthy people would renounce their citizenship. And the bigger problem isn’t even the money. It’s the annual inventorying of their assets. The truly wealthy in this country have zero interest in submitting to an annual audit of all of their assets. They barely know what all their assets are. And the last thing they’re going to do is report them every year and then pay a toll. So you would have massive compliance problems. And to me there are better ways to make this economy fair, though I understand the spirit of it and the intent of it. But I agree that it would be somewhere between problematic and a disaster in practice."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/andrew-yang-wealth-tax-plans...

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#38
post #34
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Eric Weinstein asks of his guests to practice difficult words listeners have to find in a dictionary. He practices difficult words with an ANKI spaced repetition system himself. What I find intriguing is that Peter Thiel has yet to appear on the Joe Rogan podcast while he clearly bankrolled that operation.

Interesting—-do you have a source for either of these statements?

I'm going to find one for the first. It is in this https://youtu.be/_b4qKv1Ctv8?t=8071

The second one is pretty obvious, Three former PayPal employees—Chad Hurley, Steve Chen, and Jawed Karim—created the service in February 2005.

With what we know of Peter Thiel I think the burden of proof is on you that he doesn't make use of the knowledge he has on specific network work effects of youtube.

Just like he installed Donald Trump with Facebook in the White House.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#39

Honestly I never found PG’s writing that insightful and ANSI Lisp was a bit of a pain to read That doesn’t take away from any of his success, which has been immense (anybody who has made over a billion is obviously amazing and had the ultimate life) but he has become too much of a cult figure in comparison to others in that stratosphere

Right place, right time, long days.

Re: Interview with Paul Graham

#40

Honestly I never found PG’s writing that insightful and ANSI Lisp was a bit of a pain to read That doesn’t take away from any of his success, which has been immense (anybody who has made over a billion is obviously amazing and had the ultimate life) but he has become too much of a cult figure in comparison to others in that stratosphere

> he has become too much of a cult figure

I didn't know who PG was until recently. I knew he was well respected on HN but I've never found that much value in his blog posts either. Maybe people like his writings in the light of his achievements, rather than for their intrinsic values.

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