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Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

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Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#31

Post by bryanlarsen »

wtallis wrote: post #22
caiobegotti wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, but the article suggests otherwise. Their deadline to put half of the satellites in orbit is 2026 so it's plenty of time for BO to have launch capability but until they put ONE object in orbit it's all vaporware, unless Amazon says right now Kuiper is open to other launch providers, which I have not seen in any news source yet.

Half the satellites is still a lot of satellites . BO would need to ramp up to at least monthly launches sometime in the next two years. SpaceX is only doing a little better than that, and they started sending the Falcon 9 to orbit in 2010.

New Glenn is a lot bigger than Falcon, though. It has twice the capacity to LEO by weight and more than twice by volume. So if a Kuiper satellite is the same size as a Starlink one, they should be able to launch 120 per flight. 14 flights to get above 1618. That could be done within a single year, although that's a big ask for a company that hasn't hit orbit yet...

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#32

Post by aliswe »

"With Amazon, it’s a whole different ballgame," says Zac Manchester, an assistant professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford University. “The thing that makes Amazon different from SpaceX and OneWeb is they have so much other stuff going for them.” If Kuiper succeeds, Amazon can not only offer global satellite broadband access—it can include that access as part of its Amazon Web Services (AWS), which already offers resources for cloud computing, machine learning, data analytics, and more."

Does that quote sound fishy or what?

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#33

Post by mlboss »

bhupy wrote: post #27
newsclues wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they haven’t done “the hard thing” yet.

Sure, but there doesn't appear to be anything intrinsic to BO that lends itself a particular disadvantage to doing "the hard thing". They appear to have the requisite resources & staff, so predicting that they will never do "the hard thing" seems a bit like spiking the football after the first quarter.

Space is hard. Even with the best people and resources there is a high probability of failure. The only way forward is to launch -> fail -> learn -> repeat.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#34

Post by kemiller »

chmullig wrote: post #3

I feel like this massively overstates the advantages of an AWS to satellite link. They aren’t going to put tiny regions in space, so it’s just about data transit. Nobody would suggest AWS should start a cell phone company or fiber ISP just for bundling that with AWS. IP, possibly with a VPN, is a very solved issue for AWS access. It’s how 100% of their customers use AWS now, after all.

LEO satellites have potential for very low latency over large distances which could be very valuable for multi-zone customers and Amazon itself. Lasers in a vacuum.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#35

Post by stetrain »

halfFact wrote: post #5

SpaceX is a private military contractor that gets tax money from citizens. Amazon is a public company that needs to disclose their revenue sources and comes from private/voluntary sources. They aren't even comparable.

Blue Origin is competing for military and NASA tax dollars just as much as SpaceX is.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#36

Post by darksaints »

caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

Only tangentially related to your comment, but I find it interesting enough to comment anyway. Jeff Bezos is literally the wealthiest man alive, and by some measures, the wealthiest that has ever lived. He could literally buy anything he could ever want. Most people would have gladly retired and lived whatever life they wanted to, and they would have done it billions of dollars ago. And so, the fact that he hasn't retired and is still actively involved in building things shows that he still wants something more in his life. And by observing what he is building, we can infer what it is that the richest man in the world wants. And all I can infer at this point is that his biggest desire is to be Elon Musk.

And it's obviously not his wealth that he's envious of. I believe it's the adoration, the faith in his abilities, and excitement of a cult following. All he wants is for people to do for him what you are doing for Musk.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#37

Post by NikolaeVarius »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #31
wtallis wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half the satellites is still a lot of satellites . BO would need to ramp up to at least monthly launches sometime in the next two years. SpaceX is only doing a little better than that, and they started sending the Falcon 9 to orbit in 2010.

New Glenn is a lot bigger than Falcon, though. It has twice the capacity to LEO by weight and more than twice by volume. So if a Kuiper satellite is the same size as a Starlink one, they should be able to launch 120 per flight. 14 flights to get above 1618. That could be done within a single year, although that's a big ask for a company that hasn't hit orbit yet...

New Glenn competes with the Falcon Heavy

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#38

Post by Lazare »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

> getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days.

Arguably true, but to the extent that is is true, it makes BOs failures to do so given how much time and money has been spent on it rather inexplicable, no?

Either they're doing something hard (and might fail), or they're doing something easy so why haven't they succeeded? Either way you cut it, it's a bad look.

> They appear to be making steady progress

It's certainly slow. Whether it's steady or indeed, progress, remains to be seen.

> I'm not saying they will absolutely succeed, but their success feels more like a when than an if unless Bezos decides to pull the plug for some reason.

Let's hope.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#39

Post by zie »

shantara wrote: post #21
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

If we assume:

* BO rocket 2x the cargo size * Satellites same size/weight as starlink

120 sats per launch(vs F9's 60). If they have to launch 1618 by 2026, that means they need 14 launches in 6 years.

If they only need 1/2 the 1618, they need 7 launches in 6 years.

So I think 7 launches(840 sats) it's still in the realm of possibility, but they have to execute everything pretty much flawlessly to make it happen. They can't afford to have many things go wrong.

Getting 14 launches done in 6 years would be very ambitious. Unless they are way way further along than they have told the public, this is probably just wishful thinking.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#40

Post by sailfast »

polytely wrote: post #13
akreal wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't have to launch on BO, they can use any launch provider.

I can't imagine SpaceX helping Amazon to create a competing satellite constellation while they are setting up starlink

In general, Musk's approach seems to be: force an industry to be leaps and bounds better by succeeding in that industry in a new way thought very difficult before.

Worked for Tesla as well as SpaceX. Same goal for Boring / Hyperloop.

Seems like ubiquitous satellite internet would also be a good thing, and SpaceX would make money on the launch to fund Starship. Win-win? Silly logic from an armchair quarterback, but I don;'t think it's as weird as you think.

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