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Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

fortune.com

31–40 of 43 posts

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#31
post #18

Buffett spent the last six months panic selling. "Be fearful when others are fearful" is his new motto. He doesn't have the same political connections he had during the GFC to get in on the sweet government-backed bailout deals this time around.

Dollar delta changes as stock rallies. If you want to maintain a fixed dollar exposure, you can trim your position when stocks rally and add to your position when they depreciate.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#32
post #3

There must be something coming to our economy soon if he is willing to bet so much on gold.

I constantly hear Robinhood type traders (errr, I mean investors) saying a wave of inflation is coming. While true that an inflationary environment is good for gold, I am not sold on massive inflation coming. Also does not help that gold is at all time highs. I sold out of my position of Barrack about two months ago; perhaps I was a bit early, but I'll take the profits.

Inflation wave started in 2008 when the housing market crashed and QE really began.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#33
post #29
post #2

Surprising move from the man who said something along the lines of[1]: "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/05/25/bury-gold/

The headline hides the fact he’s not buying gold, but rather a gold mining company. Yes, the stock tracks the prices of gold, but the stock beat gold by 45% so far this year. It sounds like buffet is investing in a mining business not actual gold (albeit they are linked somewhat).

Equity in a gold mining company is a leveraged play on gold: since the company has debt, the equity will react more than the price of gold (on both the upside and the downside) with a floor at 0. So he's purchased a call option on gold.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#34
I suspect that gold is a very common metal throughout the inner solar system, and the asteroid belt. It’s only valuable now, because of its rarity on earth.

But once we can mine the lower gravity of Mars, then someone might dig up a gold mine.

And Venus I would suspect has a lot of gold. If we can slow it’s runaway global warming, then we might be able to establish a colony there, and mine gold.

The same concept goes for Mercury.

I’m surprised that the Moon hasn’t revealed trace elements of gold yet. I suspect that it might be buried deep inside the core, where it sunk, while the moon was still molten and forming. If someone can find a gold mine deposit there, then they can build a mass driver to launch it on a return trip back to earth. Or just use it to build new spacecraft in outer space.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#35
post #2

Surprising move from the man who said something along the lines of[1]: "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/05/25/bury-gold/

I see no problem here. He is buying a gold miner, so he is buying a business profiting off this weird desire for gold. You could basically say the same about chocolate: "People pay money to buy what is basically compressed sugar to then die from diabetes" (little exaggerated). Doesn't mean it's not profitable to own chocolate companies (as Buffett does)

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#36
post #2

Surprising move from the man who said something along the lines of[1]: "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/05/25/bury-gold/

Buffet was commenting on the social absurdity of the situation, but that has little bearing on his investment strategies. Money is money, and I'm sure Buffet has similar contempt for quite a few industries he's invested in.

A very forgiving description for what is just plain hypocrisy.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buffet was commenting on the social absurdity of the situation, but that has little bearing on his investment strategies. Money is money, and I'm sure Buffet has similar contempt for quite a few industries he's invested in.

A very forgiving description for what is just plain hypocrisy.

That's not hypocrisy.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#38
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline hides the fact he’s not buying gold, but rather a gold mining company. Yes, the stock tracks the prices of gold, but the stock beat gold by 45% so far this year. It sounds like buffet is investing in a mining business not actual gold (albeit they are linked somewhat).

Equity in a gold mining company is a leveraged play on gold: since the company has debt, the equity will react more than the price of gold (on both the upside and the downside) with a floor at 0. So he's purchased a call option on gold.

The gold mining company can generate future incoming cashflows, gold doesn't.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#39
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Equity in a gold mining company is a leveraged play on gold: since the company has debt, the equity will react more than the price of gold (on both the upside and the downside) with a floor at 0. So he's purchased a call option on gold.

The gold mining company can generate future incoming cashflows, gold doesn't.

The equity in the gold company is a call on the gold in the ground: the cash flows of the company come from extracting this gold. Getting a bit more detailed, the leverage comes from 2 elements: (a) operating leverage i.e. company generates more revenue with same fixed operating costs and (b) financial leverage i.e. company generates more net operating income with same fixed interest costs. The basic point is that the cash flows all come from extracting gold, so the equity is a derivative on this underlying.

Re: Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold

#40
post #16
post #3

There must be something coming to our economy soon if he is willing to bet so much on gold.

Or something is coming to Goldman Sachs. With zero-interest rates and quantitative easing, there is no need for countries to borrow money because they can start printing it. At the same time, China controls more and more business processes which leaves less to companies that operate within Goldman Sachs' merger and acquisition world. Taken even further, market economies could come to an end because they cannot exist…

> market economies could come to an end because they cannot exist in a world where China can be a loss-leader in every strategically important market.

This.

Already happened with rare earth processing and pharma.

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