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Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

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Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#31

Post by rfoo »

nabla9 wrote: post #27
derefr wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How different is that from the US Coast Guard's (and especially regular merchant ships whose crews are part of the Coast Guard Reserve's) wartime function? I would suppose that all organized merchant-marine escort fleets are trained to cooperate/coordinate with their country's Navy; if not just to "get the heck out of the way, this area is about to be under attack." Also, AFAIK, it's a de-facto "law of the sea" that…

There are so many of them and they are more closely integrated to PLA. The encrypted military communication equipment they carry is designed works even during wartime operations under jamming.

It's quite interesting to see those fleet being analyzed and claimed to be "more closely integrated", while the PLA is still trying to push their new "Military and civilian integration" (军民融合) concept by copying how US did it. Are they that fast at embracing and enhancing?

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#32

Post by vkou »

valuearb wrote: post #26
alextheparrot wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would learning that the diplomatic channels of the UN were some of the methods used to relay information during, for example, the Cuban middle crisis change your opinion? The comparison seems to lack historical context, the UN has been involved into international diplomatic actions relating to nuclear war far more than any footballers. I think the “spreading democracy” mindset is wholly unsubstantiated, as most of th…

There is no peace as long as authoritarian regimes threaten democratic nations and their own peoples.

A bad peace is better than a good war.

As anyone who's ever had a war fought on their soil will tell you.

When was the last time a war has been fought on your country's soil? How many times since then has your country brought war to another's?

Your opinion might change were you on the receiving end of these adventures.

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#33

Post by topkai22 »

nabla9 wrote: post #20
vbtemp wrote: post #7

I know this article is about the waters off Korea, but I noticed a similar thing flying over the South China Sea, in particular the Tokyo-Bangkok route. Flying late at night over the SCS, and then peering out the window from 40k ft, you see endless lights - thousands and thousands of them. At first I thought I was over land, but then checked the map. The next trip I noticed the same thing, and then the same. It was l…

Many of those ships have crews that are part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). The militia are organized and commanded directly by the PLA's local military commands. They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. https://www.andrewerickson.com/2016/03/chinas-maritime-milit...

Embedding surveillance and comms capabilities in fishing fleets is an old trick- there is even a reference in Wikipedia for the Soviets doing it in the 80s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spy_ship).

That's not to dismiss it- the PLAN is almost certainly using the fishing fleet to expand its capabilities, and the giant size of the "invisible fleet" has national security implications for the region. The article touches on the use of the fishing fleet to assert Chinese claims to the Spratley islands and other contested regions, which is definitely a concern for regional stability.

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#34

Post by nabla9 »

rfoo wrote: post #31
nabla9 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are so many of them and they are more closely integrated to PLA. The encrypted military communication equipment they carry is designed works even during wartime operations under jamming.

It's quite interesting to see those fleet being analyzed and claimed to be "more closely integrated", while the PLA is still trying to push their new "Military and civilian integration" (军民融合) concept by copying how US did it. Are they that fast at embracing and enhancing?

PLA has had Maritime Militia since 70's.

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#35

Post by twic »

gruez wrote: post #28
nabla9 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of those ships have crews that are part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). The militia are organized and commanded directly by the PLA's local military commands. They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. https://www.andrewerickson.com/2016/03/chinas-maritime-milit...

>They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. How are they supposed to support the PLA navy if all they have is a boat with some military radios? The only thing I can think of is cannon fodder or search and rescue.

As a forward observation post the enemy can't legally sink?

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#36

Post by valuearb »

vkou wrote: post #32
valuearb wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no peace as long as authoritarian regimes threaten democratic nations and their own peoples.

A bad peace is better than a good war. As anyone who's ever had a war fought on their soil will tell you. When was the last time a war has been fought on your country's soil? How many times since then has your country brought war to another's? Your opinion might change were you on the receiving end of these adventures.

You mean a bad peace like 1939?

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#37

Post by vkou »

valuearb wrote: post #36
vkou wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bad peace is better than a good war. As anyone who's ever had a war fought on their soil will tell you. When was the last time a war has been fought on your country's soil? How many times since then has your country brought war to another's? Your opinion might change were you on the receiving end of these adventures.

You mean a bad peace like 1939?

I'm thinking more like the bad peace of 1963, 1979, 2001, 2003, 2011, 2011 (again), need I go on?

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#38

Post by alextheparrot »

valuearb wrote: post #26
alextheparrot wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would learning that the diplomatic channels of the UN were some of the methods used to relay information during, for example, the Cuban middle crisis change your opinion? The comparison seems to lack historical context, the UN has been involved into international diplomatic actions relating to nuclear war far more than any footballers. I think the “spreading democracy” mindset is wholly unsubstantiated, as most of th…

There is no peace as long as authoritarian regimes threaten democratic nations and their own peoples.

> The key method to avoiding war is to spread democracy

This statement remains unsubstantiated, and is furthermore argued against by the wars originally provided in the general context of the quote.

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#39

Post by nabla9 »

gruez wrote: post #28
nabla9 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of those ships have crews that are part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). The militia are organized and commanded directly by the PLA's local military commands. They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. https://www.andrewerickson.com/2016/03/chinas-maritime-milit...

>They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. How are they supposed to support the PLA navy if all they have is a boat with some military radios? The only thing I can think of is cannon fodder or search and rescue.

They are normally unarmed, but when it can all change at any time. It's hard to notice when that change is happening.

All of sudden there can be 50,000 or 100,000 ships carrying sea mines, underwater listening devices, depth charges, targeting systems or short range anti-ship missiles. Just like their merchant cargo ships they have some standardization that allows PLA to plan ahead what they can carry.

If USN carrier group must sail to help Taiwan in short notice and huge fleet of these ships just happen to stand in the way, then what? It's huge risk just to just assume that they are unarmed and sail trough, or that they have not mined the area. Just being able to provide targeting for Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles is a big problem.

Even if just 10% of them are armed, USN would have to sink or inspect every one of them to neutralize the threat. 7th fleet is not carrying enough anti-ship missiles board to take them down quickly.

Re: Unmasking China's Invisible Fleet

#40

Post by gruez »

nabla9 wrote: post #39
gruez wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They don't normally carry weapons, but they have military communications equipment and readiness to support PLA Navy. How are they supposed to support the PLA navy if all they have is a boat with some military radios? The only thing I can think of is cannon fodder or search and rescue.

They are normally unarmed, but when it can all change at any time. It's hard to notice when that change is happening. All of sudden there can be 50,000 or 100,000 ships carrying sea mines, underwater listening devices, depth charges, targeting systems or short range anti-ship missiles. Just like their merchant cargo ships they have some standardization that allows PLA to plan ahead what they can carry. If USN carrier…

>If USN carrier group must sail to help Taiwan in short notice and huge fleet of these ships just happen to stand in the way, then what? It's huge risk just to just assume that they are unarmed and sail trough, or that they have not mined the area. Just being able to provide targeting for Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles is a big problem.

Sounds like they're using civilian ships as human shields or cannon fodder to me. What's the legality of this? I feel like this would run afoul of some sort of international law requiring combatants to be identified[1], or preventing them from using civilians as human shields[2]. Can

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_war#Lawful_conduct_of_b...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_shields_(law)

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