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With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

economist.com

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Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#31

Post by babypuncher »

djsumdog wrote: post #10

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

Biomass only makes up a small fraction of the energy economy. Wind and solar have much more promising futures.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#32

Post by cmrdporcupine »

Pokepokalypse wrote: post #24

then. . . why did the Arab states (Saudi Arabia) join with Russia to overproduce and sandbag prices?

To bankrupt and slow down other oil producing countries that have even higher costs.

As an example, take a look at Alberta, Canada, with its giant oil sands projects -- on the world's largest deposit of crude oil on the planet -- basically unprofitable now.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#33

Post by eloff »

djsumdog wrote: post #10

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

Biofuel is a small industry. But the big difference is it's carbon neutral because the carbon released into the atmosphere came from the atmosphere.

Oil is releasing carbon from prehistoric atmospheres.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#34

Post by ogre_codes »

djsumdog wrote: post #10

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

> CO2 pales in comparison to the ecological devastation in Chinese factory cities, the large amount of plastic particulates/trash in our oceans and completely unsustainable economic doctrine of infinite growth.

No... not remotely. While these things you mention are a big threat, and truly terrible disasters themselves, they pale in comparison to the planet changing disaster that is Climate Change.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#36

Post by afandian »

supernova87a wrote: post #12
djsumdog wrote: post #10

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

The end of your comment makes some sense. The beginning is a puzzle. Who's using biomass? It's <1.5% of energy generation in the US -- you're pretty special and living in an unusual place if you get any substantial energy from that source.

Up to 5% of car fuel in the UK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Transport_Fuel_Oblig...

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#37

Post by guepe »

ogre_codes wrote: post #28
supernova87a wrote: post #7

I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998... These petro states suffer from the curse of natural resources combined with leadership that is too busy feasting off of the intermittent boom cycle to prepare their people constructively for the bust that comes later. So you have entire countries that are basically dependent on the oil handout, and in bad times, have littl…

> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…

Prices have dropped more frequently because of US shale oil. Electrification is a very small factor (yet).

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#38

Post by yumraj »

One of the things I've always wondered about when Arab countries run out of oil, and now with cheap oil, will it, at a macro level, result in lower Islamic terrorism or higher?

Argument for Lower : State sponsors, and rich individual sponsors will have fewer funds. There may be local revolutions resulting in more democratic governments.

Higher: There will be instability due to rising poverty with many people turning to radicalization and in many cases terrorism becoming the only way for poor people to support their families.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#39

Post by supernova87a »

3pt14159 wrote: post #30
supernova87a wrote: post #7

I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998... These petro states suffer from the curse of natural resources combined with leadership that is too busy feasting off of the intermittent boom cycle to prepare their people constructively for the bust that comes later. So you have entire countries that are basically dependent on the oil handout, and in bad times, have littl…

In the long run the cost of energy approaches 0 and ultimately heat dissipation and space (and hence, speed) will be more relevant. But short-termism and individual greed have reigned supreme in most energy rich companies. At least Canada has a diverse economy to take up all the petro-refugees, even if we didn't build a serious wealth fund out of our oil as the Norwegians did.

I will make the snarky observation that if there is one good thing about the Norwegians and their petro fund, it's that they seem to have a national culture of being a bit ashamed of having come into so much money, and are willing to have it hoarded away for them for some future while they live relatively "modestly". It takes some self-discipline to not pressure your government to give handouts left and right when you're rich.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#40

Post by staycoolboy »

opportune wrote: post #4

It’s hard to feel bad for them but there are a lot of outcomes here which result in a lot of people dying. Pretty sure half the reason SA and friends promote violent, reactionary interpretations of Islam is to serve as a dead man’s switch in case of regime change.

I spent a month in Antibes (next to Cannes) visiting new in-laws. The French Riviera is a playground for the hundreds (thousands?) of saudi princes. I've never seen so many mega yachts, Rolls Royces, and Lambos in one place. To be honest, it was (briefly) kinda cool to see ultra-wealth on display, despite the consequences to millions of poor who suffer for it.
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