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An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

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Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#31

Post by cambalache »

Nice as an exercise in Pandas and the whole Python data analysis tool chain, the graphics are awesome. As an exercise on football analysis is pretty useless and feeble, and even worst, judging by the author's name (most probably Brazilian or Portuguese) it led his dislike of Argentina to cloud his judgement.

You can perorate all you want about possession and passes completion but if I am a manager and you offer me a first half (who according the author was a Germany slaughter fest) as the Argentinians had it, I will take it every single time. Absent from the analysis are also the clear cut chances of Higuain and Messi (far better from anything than Germany had, despite all the possession) and the controversial disputed ball between Neuer and Higuain. Anyway, it was nice to see the exercise.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#32

Post by brummm »

LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

I think it seems that way because of the 7:1 in the semi finals. But honestly, the result came to be mainly because Brazil was really playing like garbage the whole tournament and only made it that far because the referees had seriously helped them. They shouldn't even have made it out of the group stages.

The remaining German matches were really close (The match agains France, mentioned below, was the real final of the tournament) and even the final was very close all the way to the end. Germany also struggled against Algeria.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#33

Post by dekervin »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #27
LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

Watch Germany vs. France and say that. The Germans stalled and fouled the whole game and scored off a set piece. In the final versus Argentina too, the game was scoreless until extra time. They also needed extra time versus Algeria. Their only real display of attacking was versus Brazil who self-destructed after having their best player (and top 3 player in the world) horrifically injured.

And yet, perhaps the most breathtaking display of football dominance I saw from that Germany team, was from their 2016 Euro semi-final against France. It was way more impressive than their brazil dismantling. Their control of the game was out of this world.

Football is "unstable" as a game. To dominate in a consistent way, you actually need to be overwhelming superior to your opponent in many different stages/aspects of the game. Any weak link and you are at the mercy of fate.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#34

Post by ankit219 »

One of those who doesnt like the use of advanced stats in football. I do watch a lot of football though. My reason is simple:

The advanced stats as they are called (xG, xA, xPA, offense actions, defense actions) all end up as a mere tool for disregarding the actual result and providing arguments for which was the better team. Like team A won the match 1-0 but team B were the better team since they had more >. The idea behind stats should be to contextualize the game I watched a bit more, and not replace the game watching.

Then there is also comparing the stats across games. In football(and every other game) there is a different difficulty level associated with each game (fatigue, condition, team condition, opposition condition, tactics, opposition tactics, teammates, chemistry, opposition mistakes, opposition players, adjustments, pressure, and even sheer luck on occasions), which makes the comparison redundant. An offensive team would always have more shots and more possession than a defensive minded park the bus kind of team. Like you said, right now no stat is good enough to give us an idea of how well a team played. Football is a game of spaces, and a lot of things depend on player movements (or lack of) and vision. I find those reports helpful which tells us where a certain team had the advantage and how they maximised it though.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#35

Post by usaphp »

brummm wrote: post #32
LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

I think it seems that way because of the 7:1 in the semi finals. But honestly, the result came to be mainly because Brazil was really playing like garbage the whole tournament and only made it that far because the referees had seriously helped them. They shouldn't even have made it out of the group stages. The remaining German matches were really close (The match agains France, mentioned below, was the real final of…

> Brazil was really playing like garbage the whole tournament and only made it that far because the referees had seriously helped them

I disagree, Brazil played great until Neymar got his back injured, he was by far their best player. Also the fact that their best defender and captain Thiago Silva was suspended for the game against Germany didn't help. These two were the best players on that squad. Remember - they beat Chile and Columbia who played really good in that world cup, while Germany barely beat Algeria and France.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#36

Post by usaphp »

LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

huh? Germany barely beat Algeria and struggled a lot against France. And they looked very vulnerable against Argentina in the final had Palacio or Higuain scored their good chances.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#37

Post by zwaps »

LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

That year, Germany had a team and it trounced all the other countries who had one or two star players, most notably Brazil. Individually, none of Germany's players became a superstar in Football. It was a lucky combination of technically decent players who just fit together perfectly to frustrate the opposition. Literally.

I would be interesting to see whether this common narrative holds true in the data.

Re: An exploratory statistical analysis of the 2014 World Cup Final

#40

Post by [deleted] »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #27
LanceH wrote: post #18

Germany 2014 was about the best I've seen the game played. Something I watch that seems to differentiate players and teams at every level is what happens on the first touch when receiving a pass. When you first start watching this, you'll notice that as you move up the ranks, the ball just sticks to a pro's feet, preferably in front of them a couple feet away where they are ready to play it again. Watching Germany th…

Watch Germany vs. France and say that. The Germans stalled and fouled the whole game and scored off a set piece. In the final versus Argentina too, the game was scoreless until extra time. They also needed extra time versus Algeria. Their only real display of attacking was versus Brazil who self-destructed after having their best player (and top 3 player in the world) horrifically injured.

[deleted]
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