Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#31

Post by adventured » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:25 PM UTC

dade_ wrote: post #23

jorblumesea wrote: post #3

If anything, doesn't that strengthen China's hand? More reliance on the mainland for jobs and handouts, more protests and counter protests so they can justify additional crackdowns. Less westerners and less international firms, less exposure to the West. Feels like a calculated move.

The CCP can now afford to sacrifice HK, their economy is now much larger than it was in 97.

They can't. For one thing they desperately need the dollars that flow through Hong Kong.

The GDP size is now among the least valuable aspects of Hong Kong as it pertains to China. That has never been primary.

Hong Kong is the economic staging point that much of the world uses to enter China's economy. Think of it as a translating middleman, that the world uses to convert from foreign market-based economics to China's domestic way of running things as a rigid command economy that is operated by fiat and is often hostile to foreign operators/owners/investors. Hong Kong's role in that respect has been critical to China's economic rise.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#32

Post by ericmay » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

tasogare wrote: post #28

f00_ wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah, hopefully they just move to taiwan

Yet Taiwan is also under threat from PRC. Also emigrating (ie leaving born place, family, friends, etc) is not that easy even when money/job is not an issue.

It's a much different threat, however. As I've covered in other threads, CCP action against Taiwan will result in an actual war which may or may not involve the U.S. and to an unknown degree.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#33

Post by vore » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #22

akamaka wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This law, if implemented fully, will effectively demolish the “one country, two systems” agreement, which has been the basis of Hong Kong’s stability and success for the last 23 years. The Beijing government is pulling out of their side of the deal they made in 1997. What will happen next is not something I can predict, but history shows us some of the things that can happen when communist parties impose their rule o…

But as I understand it, the "2 systems" has to do with economic and political governance. I see nothing in those laws about changing the financial or economic systems of the country that would lead businesses to gulp and say no thank you?

I think GP comment about communist parties is not really what the heart of the matter is here: business owners are probably not excited to deal with the opaqueness of the mainland China legal system since it's apparently prone to disappear booksellers over the border and force confessions out of them.

That said, maybe the exodus is overhyped: a lot of businesses are already dealing with the mainland government and certainly that's where a lot of them see where the money is, so they might just be forced to play by these new rules whether they like it or not.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#34

Post by alisonatwork » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #4

I read all these headlines, but when I then followup to read more about the text of the proposed laws [1], I have a hard time seeing that aside from freedom of speech infringements (and ability to imprison, fine based on those -- which are clearly a bit vague in terms of enforcement, but otherwise as bland as a lot of US legislation), these laws are not egregiously different from what exist in some other countries. A…

I don't think the main problem Hongkongers have with this law is necessarily the content, but the fact it has been pushed on them by an external government which many Hongkongers expected to remain independent from for the next 27 years. From their perspective, having their own government taking marching orders from Beijing undermines the principle of "one country two systems".

Aside from the principle of it, there are also several aspects of the proposed law that go beyond what many people consider to be reasonable. Most notable for migrants and tourists is the emphasis on preventing and penalizing "foreign interference", which doesn't sit well in a city that is still the most multicultural in East Asia. Allowing the mainland security apparatus to set up offices in the city is also concerning, given mainland law enforcement is famous for disappearing and torturing people who do not support the single party dictatorship.

I think it's fairly clear that this is an opportunistic power-grab by the central government. The coronavirus has allowed them to dramatically increase the intensity of their security measures in the mainland, instituting Xinjiang-style movement tracking apps, "temporary" barricades and checkpoints all over the country. The state media has whipped up intense anti-American hatred, and the government is emboldened by the fact that America is dealing with the virus comparatively poorly. There is a widespread public support for cracking down on Hong Kong, which has been presented here in mainland as a city besieged by terrorists and American agents of chaos, all out to destroy China. I suspect from the point of view of the central government, being able to advance their timetable on the takeover of Hong Kong is the silver lining of this pandemic.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#35

Post by pkaye » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

f00_ wrote: post #9

m-p-3 wrote: post #8

And the real losers in this fight here are Hongkongese citizens, who fought for their freedom and ultimately are losing it, on top of facing an economic crisis.

yeah, hopefully they just move to taiwan

Elsewhere I've ready that Hong Kong and Taiwan have a lot of differences like Mandarin vs Cantonese. Also Hong Kong has a much higher GDP per capita.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#36

Post by vore » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #14

m-p-3 wrote: post #8

And the real losers in this fight here are Hongkongese citizens, who fought for their freedom and ultimately are losing it, on top of facing an economic crisis.

As I genuinely asked in my comment separately in the thread, what practical freedoms are being lost by the everyday person in Hong Kong that would not be considered crimes in the US (or Hong Kong prior to this), for example?

What practical freedoms are being lost by the everyday person in the US if the US decided to replace public courts with shadow puppetry?

Probably none, but I would be terrified.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#37

Post by lyrachord » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

Walking dead says the same as well.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#38

Post by nickff » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:40 PM UTC

m-p-3 wrote: post #8

And the real losers in this fight here are Hongkongese citizens, who fought for their freedom and ultimately are losing it, on top of facing an economic crisis.

I am reminded of the proverb: 'when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers'.

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#39

Post by redisman » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:42 PM UTC

f00_ wrote: post #9

m-p-3 wrote: post #8

And the real losers in this fight here are Hongkongese citizens, who fought for their freedom and ultimately are losing it, on top of facing an economic crisis.

yeah, hopefully they just move to taiwan

What all of them?

Re: Hong Kong’s security law is going to devastate its economy

#40

Post by jcranmer » Wed, May 27, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #14

m-p-3 wrote: post #8

And the real losers in this fight here are Hongkongese citizens, who fought for their freedom and ultimately are losing it, on top of facing an economic crisis.

As I genuinely asked in my comment separately in the thread, what practical freedoms are being lost by the everyday person in Hong Kong that would not be considered crimes in the US (or Hong Kong prior to this), for example?

The obvious answer is criticism of the Chinese government, which is I believe a Chinese constitutional right that is ignored in practice. Although, practically speaking, this has already been lost in Hong Kong ever since the abduction of the bookseller.