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TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

asia.nikkei.com

31–40 of 230 posts

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#31
post #27

And thus enables the Chinese semiconductor industry.

The Chinese semiconductor industry is going to happen no matter what; it is one of their strategic priorities and they have been moving in this direction for a long time. This is about making it harder and inflicting some pain on them.

Just to back it up with a source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-pursuit-semiconductor-i...

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#32

Escalation between the US and China is inevitable. China is fundamentally opposed to everything the US and Democracies around the world stand for politically. Likewise, the US and friends are fundamentally opposed to everything China stands for politically. There is no Universe in which two diametrically opposed juggernauts do not come into conflict. Conflict is simply inevitable when the stakes are this high and the…

I don't think it will be such a dramatic shift. It will be more of a middle ground IMO. The mega corporations of US will be regulated by the government just like it happens in China. And China will end up with more rights and transperancy like a democracy.

I think it more likely that china will end up with these facilities in country, along with their typical good old fashioned protectionism freezing others out of the china market in that segment.

As horrible as this sounds, there will be a large number of entities in china that will view this as the opportunity of a lifetime.

But hey, here's hoping.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#33

And thus enables the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Do you think the timelines would really be any different?

Yes, this will be a huge accelerator. The US is showing China that they can not depend on foundries they do not own lock, stock and barrel and that are on Chinese soil. It's totally obvious what this will lead to. Next: restrictions on selling stepper tech to the Chinese. Wonder how ASML's stock will respond to this news, quite a few reasons to go either way.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#34
post #14

Can we get the TSMC fab built in America first before stirring things up?

TSMC's fab is in Taiwan, not PRC.

Given the critical nature of semiconductors, if China invaded Taiwan it's hard to see the US not getting involved.

TSMC is Taiwan's largest company.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#35
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it will be such a dramatic shift. It will be more of a middle ground IMO. The mega corporations of US will be regulated by the government just like it happens in China. And China will end up with more rights and transperancy like a democracy.

> And China will end up with more rights and transperancy like a democracy. I see no timeline in which this happens short of Xi Jinping catching coronavirus and dying. China is headed into "What is best for Xi Jinping" rather than "What is best for China". Lysenkoism is coming.

> China is headed into "What is best for Xi Jinping" rather than "What is best for China"

Isn't this the same happening everywhere?

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#36
post #15
post #6

Wow. Can someone more familiar with stuff explain how much of a big deal this is? Does this completely kneecap Huawei/China?

In the immediate future, Huawei will be fine: > Huawei has been preparing for such a move by the U.S. since the end of last year, including stockpiling more than a year's worth of networking equipment-related chips, especially for its crucial telecom equipment and carrier business, sources told Nikkei Asian Review.

Wouldn't Huawei not be able to sell devices made with those chips in western markets due to the restriction?

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#37
post #6

Wow. Can someone more familiar with stuff explain how much of a big deal this is? Does this completely kneecap Huawei/China?

Huawei shifted Hisilicon 14nm orders from TSMC to SMIC a month ago in anticipation. I think most of their router hardware is domestic components except from Xilinx FGPAs, but alternatives are difficult to source. The articles mention Huawei's been stockpiling components, it's hard to say how long that will last. Last I read they've already burned through a bunch and they've been rolling out domestic 5G during covid19. There should still be enough runway for a few political exchanges i.e. putting US companies on Chinese unreliable entity list to see what happens.

This is a "bigger" move than expected - the anticipated escalation was US reducing US origin tech % to <10. TSMC believes their 7nm was around 9-10% so there was a chance Huawei orders was still viable. Now it's a blanket export license requirement. While the article only covers Huawei, I think it's a broader blanket that applies to all Chinese companies with military connections, which is basically an impossibly difficult task for any company to determine. The impact is unclear. This is one move short of kicking Huawei off dollar trading.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#38
post #27

And thus enables the Chinese semiconductor industry.

The Chinese semiconductor industry is going to happen no matter what; it is one of their strategic priorities and they have been moving in this direction for a long time. This is about making it harder and inflicting some pain on them.

The effect will be the exact opposite, it will make it harder and will inflict some pain on them in the short term, but in the longer term any internal resistance has just evaporated and they will double down on this.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#39
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it will be such a dramatic shift. It will be more of a middle ground IMO. The mega corporations of US will be regulated by the government just like it happens in China. And China will end up with more rights and transperancy like a democracy.

> And China will end up with more rights and transperancy like a democracy. I see no timeline in which this happens short of Xi Jinping catching coronavirus and dying. China is headed into "What is best for Xi Jinping" rather than "What is best for China". Lysenkoism is coming.

>I see no timeline in which this happens short of Xi Jinping catching coronavirus and dying.

Yeah, I don't see it happening then either.

But it certainly isn't gonna happen after an enormous market opens up for domestic competitors.

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