31–40 of 438 posts
At least one component of the "America First" strategy I can fully get behind is bringing manufacturing back to the US mainline. If anything that last few months has taught us, it's that we must not lose our ability to produce quality, vital products. Semiconductors definitely falls into that category. I don't care how it's accomplished, either carrots (tax incentives) or sticks (tariffs). Do what's necessary to brin…
Taxpayer-funded state-directed economic activity?
The geopolitical aspects are, to me at least, a bit over blown. Yes there has been growing concern about the integrity of the supply chain for critical resources, but that is the whole globalization problem in a nutshell. I find the calls to re-vertically-integrate the US to not be very persuasive in terms of practicality. Maybe if Canada and Mexico join the US in an economic union similar to the EU? Chips are just one part of a much larger puzzle and fabs are just one part of a supply chain that includes stops in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam for packaging and testing.
I do think it has been made abundantly clear how interdependent the world is these days. It is possible that the new clarity has caused some powerful forces to reconsider their world view. But has it changed it enough to create real and meaningful policy change? (For context, I see globalization as a means of maximizing profits, not about politics)
To my way of thinking, real change would be the ability to economically stand up a 100mm 5nm fab line profitably. That would allow the production of "jelly bean" chips (general purpose < 100M gates). That would be a pretty seismic change in my opinion.
Why are fabs being built in az?
AZ has been a semiconductor hub for decades. Intel, Motorola, ON and many others produce chips there. There is huge infrastructure and talent base for semiconductor manufacturing. Geographically, Chandler as a suburb of Phoenix has consistent weather, relatively cheap land, and access to water - as counter-intuitive as it sounds. I did my PhD in semiconductors at ASU and there might has well been a bus direct from th…
During the 80s & 90s, one of my besties worked on building fabs in and around PHX. Really exotic stuff that I didn't really understand. He'd joke that he had a PhD in welding.
He claimed at the time that fabs were migrating from California to PHX and ABX to avoid environmental regulation (enforcement) and cheaper water. While he was concerned about building future superfund sites, he also knew he'd never make that kind of money doing any other kind of work.
If you don't mind, I'd really appreciate your take. I still have family in Phoenix.
I've always been concerned about toxins (air and water). And I'm also grumpy about megacorps guzzling all the water at discount prices.
So while I'd love for TSMC to build their fabs in the USA, I'm worried about the downsides too.
Are my concerns justified?
At least one component of the "America First" strategy I can fully get behind is bringing manufacturing back to the US mainline. If anything that last few months has taught us, it's that we must not lose our ability to produce quality, vital products. Semiconductors definitely falls into that category. I don't care how it's accomplished, either carrots (tax incentives) or sticks (tariffs). Do what's necessary to brin…
Right now the world is peaceful and I stand in North America with an iPhone 11 Pro in my pocket and an advanced Nvidia GPU in my workstation. I’m not sure I see a problem with that state of affairs.
Reducing interdependence reduces the downside to stupid, selfish nationalistic moves. I don’t want that at all.
Why are fabs being built in az?
Other Fabs are already located in the area, and in general the state has been good towards businesses. Also ASU is nearby so they have a talent pool of new engineers to pull from. Anecdote, since I've moved to AZ myself 5 years ago I've noticed massive growth in tech businesses in Phoenix and the surrounding areas. Cost of living for people here is also cheaper compared to to other cities I've lived in, and many peop…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
AZ has been a semiconductor hub for decades. Intel, Motorola, ON and many others produce chips there. There is huge infrastructure and talent base for semiconductor manufacturing. Geographically, Chandler as a suburb of Phoenix has consistent weather, relatively cheap land, and access to water - as counter-intuitive as it sounds. I did my PhD in semiconductors at ASU and there might has well been a bus direct from th…
Thank you for providing context. During the 80s & 90s, one of my besties worked on building fabs in and around PHX. Really exotic stuff that I didn't really understand. He'd joke that he had a PhD in welding. He claimed at the time that fabs were migrating from California to PHX and ABX to avoid environmental regulation (enforcement) and cheaper water. While he was concerned about building future superfund sites, he…
Before water enters a fab it goes through a water purification plant to eliminate any impurities. As the water leaves the fab it goes through another process to decontaminate and recycle it. The process of purifying water is expensive and consumes energy so they try and recycle as much as possible. The number 96% sticks out in my mind but that is an old number.
Simply stated, I do not worry about local pollution from semiconductor manufacturing in the United States due to all the regulations. I would live next door to the Chandler plant happily. Pull open Google Maps Satellite View, type in "Intel Chandler Soccer Field" Look at all the green area around the plant, that's where the 4% that isn't recycled goes. You will also see a beautiful golf course and nice houses just east of the plant.
Side note: as I understand it, plants moved to AZ/NM because they wanted to eliminate process variance. Weather and water are a major source of variance. So they want places that reduce variance while simultaneously being favorable business environments.
Reference: https://ktar.com/story/76977/intel-plant-replenishes-water-s...
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Taxpayer-funded state-directed economic activity?
Unlike bank bailouts, we'll have a semiconductor fab, supply chain and jobs to show for it. Put the reserve currency to good use while it's still a reserve currency.
There's zero threat currently to that status and only China is capable of even plausibly posing a challenge in the next ~30 years. The Euro, Yen and Bitcoin pose no realistic challenge to USD dominance. It leaves only the Yuan, which still has no global position at all and isn't regarded as a currency you can trust. China will obviously do anything they can to alter that equation.
We're going into, at a minimum, a cold war with China that will last decades. There is no scenario where that is avoided. The US should become wildly aggressive about bringing manufacturing back, or otherwise pushing it out of China (including convincing allies to do the same), pulling every lever necessary.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Guesses: away from fault lines? Dry climate? They get some nasty rains that flood things, but better than tornados, hurricanes, and earthquakes.
^ This. Also explains why there's so many data centers. Cost too. Land & power are both cheap.
At least one component of the "America First" strategy I can fully get behind is bringing manufacturing back to the US mainline. If anything that last few months has taught us, it's that we must not lose our ability to produce quality, vital products. Semiconductors definitely falls into that category. I don't care how it's accomplished, either carrots (tax incentives) or sticks (tariffs). Do what's necessary to brin…
Consider for a moment that less reliance upon foreign supply chains makes {trade, cold, shooting} war more viable. Right now the world is peaceful and I stand in North America with an iPhone 11 Pro in my pocket and an advanced Nvidia GPU in my workstation. I’m not sure I see a problem with that state of affairs. Reducing interdependence reduces the downside to stupid, selfish nationalistic moves. I don’t want that at…
Has been under discussion for some time: "Mark Liu, the chairman of TSMC, said he had recently discussed options for a new factory in the United States with the Commerce Department. The stumbling block was money; major subsidies would be required, he said, as it is more expensive to operate in America than Taiwan." ( https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/technology/pentagon-taiwa... )