Within the data itself, it shows that quarantine and isolation are effective practices against spreading covid in a hotspot. This may be a good stop-gap measure while researchers are able to study it more, but government's responsibility at all levels of keeping people safe in returning to work has has greatly fallen short of expectations.
Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
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Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#32It’s an interesting question: how do you figure out whether these numbers are good or bad? Ohio has a prison population of about 44,000. So these numbers (actual plus probable) represent a death rate of 120 per 100,000. That’s ten times the death rate in Ohio as a whole. But it’s about half the death rate of NYC (actual plus probable). What’s the correct reference point? NYC seems like a reasonable reference, given t…
[0] Though even with those you can isolate it to particular rooms if you have the testing capacity.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#3317 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…
If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#34Also, there are fewer old prisoners than old people in the general population.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Diamond Princess had a far higher percentage of older (over 70) people. I also would like to know if the HVAC system is as centralize in a prison as it is on a cruise ship.
HVAC is not the problem. The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms. Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#36Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.
Any recommendations?
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid
.
https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid
https://marginalrevolution.com/about
Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to.
arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#38This is likely just about population age distribution in prisons vs the general population. 16% of the US population is 65+, but only 2.7% in (federal) prisons. So that must account for a decent chunk of it. https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.
If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.
Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-onl…
What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.
You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.