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Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

coronavirus.ohio.gov

31–40 of 60 posts

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#31
While this is a small dataset of tested individuals which may be proportionally representative to larger groups, it comes at odds with releasing PII with respect to individual privacy to see potential comorbities (old age, obesity, diabetes, lack of an auto-immune response, etc). We know that people with exposure to recycled airspace and live in close proximity are more likely to transmit covid to one another. Mask wearing and social distancing are actions that will have to be obeyed by everyone as a collective in order to work-- one may never know if they're an asymptomatic super-spreader without widespread testing. Cloth masks aren't for protecting yourself as much as they are everyone around you.

Within the data itself, it shows that quarantine and isolation are effective practices against spreading covid in a hotspot. This may be a good stop-gap measure while researchers are able to study it more, but government's responsibility at all levels of keeping people safe in returning to work has has greatly fallen short of expectations.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#32
post #20

It’s an interesting question: how do you figure out whether these numbers are good or bad? Ohio has a prison population of about 44,000. So these numbers (actual plus probable) represent a death rate of 120 per 100,000. That’s ten times the death rate in Ohio as a whole. But it’s about half the death rate of NYC (actual plus probable). What’s the correct reference point? NYC seems like a reasonable reference, given t…

It's also a place where you have the power to force people to follow distancing and 'shelter in place' as long as it's not a dorm style prison. [0]

[0] Though even with those you can isolate it to particular rooms if you have the testing capacity.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#33

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…

I keep seeing reports that after an outbreak has played out about 25% of infected never show symptoms and 60% have something between a mild cold and a bad case of influenza. The remaining 15% get really sick and ~1% die.

If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#34
I've read somewhere (but don't know if it's true) that prison meals are enriched with vitamins, and in particular with vitamin D. Could someone confirm?

Also, there are fewer old prisoners than old people in the general population.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#35
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diamond Princess had a far higher percentage of older (over 70) people. I also would like to know if the HVAC system is as centralize in a prison as it is on a cruise ship.

HVAC is not the problem. The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms. Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.

Cruise ships are pretty similar in that people are eating and recreating in the same areas.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#36
I think the better report to look into will be Lompac(southern california)[1], they have the higher % of infected prisoners, I think its been roughly 70% of the prison population has tested positive for covid. Analyzing these closed systems for a true death rate seems to be the only way we will get decent data regarding mortality. I don't see govt. officials going door to door in cities asking for people to prick their finger to analyze for covid antibodies. A few things to watch out for is prisoner transfers due to extreme sickness, also getting a age distribution for the prison like others have said here, another thing to note is prison food and env. is bad on health.

[1] - https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14963

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#37
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.

Any recommendations?

The best I know of:

http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid

https://www.arnoldkling.com/

.

https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid

https://marginalrevolution.com/about

Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to.

arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#38
post #22

This is likely just about population age distribution in prisons vs the general population. 16% of the US population is 65+, but only 2.7% in (federal) prisons. So that must account for a decent chunk of it. https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...

I agree that the age distribution does not match society in general, but take one thing into account, you have one group of people who have an extremely low death rate not in prison(children and teenagers) so this probably evens things out, extreme old age is not represented in prisons either, 80+ .

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#39
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.

If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.

Can you point to any actual posts from these people on the ship’s? As I have seen a lot of horrifically bad statistics by random posters.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#40
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-onl…

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.

What special knowledge do you think you need to interpret 5 months of COVID studies? That's almost two semesters of grad school.

You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.

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